Major AdSense Reporting Lag on Oct 6. 2010

Massive Click Dumps Being Reported Oct 7.

[Rodeo]

Just an hour or so to end oct 6, for around 10000 impressions this morning (Taiwan time, GMT+8), I'm seeing single digit earnings.
CTR has plummeted, eCPM is plummeted, and earnings worse this morning. Impressions are counting normally though.
Anyone seeing similar things?

[Frank44]

Is it possible that we are being Smart priced?

Lately I have been Sumbleduponed a couple of times and I know that users coming from there do not click... What's your thoughts?

[Play_Bach]

Something major appears to have changed. My AdSense earnings this month are way off the average. I've been with the program for six years now and haven't seen low numbers like this for a long time.

[BillyS]

Lately I have been Sumbleduponed a couple of times and I know that users coming from there do not click... What's your thoughts?

This is a great point. Since most of us don't control where our traffic comes from, it takes a lot of research to figure out if a low eCPM is a result of different traffic patterns or ad payouts.

For example, we rank highly on a term that has to do with holidays. The week before a holiday, we see a surge in traffic. That traffic is only looking at a calendar - visitors they find what they need and leave. No clicks. So last week our eCPM was down, but I know why.

We're also subject to traffic from "featured" terms that appear on Yahoo or Bing (those "click here to find out more" options). When that happens, we see a very large spike in visitors for several days. When the term is related to "high payout" ads, we see both an increase in traffic and a jump in eCPM too. When the term is a low payout term, we see a big jump in traffic and a drop in eCPM.

[ascensions]

I think Frank44 nailed it. I suspect everyone is out of "the weekly cycle" for smart pricing calculation, and is therefore being smart-priced. I bet in one week, everything will be back to normal as the week algo cycle resets.

[Frank44]

Thanks for your positive feedback...I said so because i just realized that while in the morning my earnings are "normal" (whatever this means) and I have few readers from Stubleupon reading those articles which have been featured, so to speak, in the afternoon my earnings, my cpm and ctr drop drammatically and that's when I still have a huge spike in traffic due to Stumpleuponers.
I do not know how much this makes sense to you all. But this morning I was "re-dusting" all those theories about earning drops and the smart-price thing just hit me as a stone on my head.

One thing I have to say. I have been stumbleuponed in the past and my earnings fluctuated accordingly. However, this is the first time I have been hit soooo hard...always assuming that this is the real cause of what I am experiencing.

One solution to prove this theory would be to show GA only to users coming from search engines...

[Edge]

Well, ever since the October 6 "event", I have seen an unexplained revenue increase. It is my view that more happened at GG than a reporting glitch.

Just another example on how one never knows which way the winds are going to blow with AdSense.

Back to work diversifying my revenue streams...

[tristanperry]

Yesterday I had an average of £0.38 ($0.50) per click.

Today so far I'm averaging at £0.02 ($0.03) per click.

Hmm.

[HuskyPup]

I'm also noticing a big variation in EPC averages from day to day, they never used to do this, maybe from week to week but not day to day...for me that is.

[Edge]

I'm also noticing a big variation in EPC averages from day to day, they never used to do this, maybe from week to week but not day to day...for me that is.

I've seen this many times - eventually, your ECPM will stabilize higher or lower. Some sort of transition mode with GG's algo.

Good luck...

[alika]

@Frank44

Lately I have been Sumbleduponed a couple of times and I know that users coming from there do not click... What's your thoughts?

Stumbleupon visitors are notorious for the very very brief visit to a site. Very rare are those content where I see Stumbleupon users averaging more than 1 minute on the page that has been "stumbledupon." They click NEXT on their toolbar so fast to go to the next site.

So what you have is

Increase traffic --> Traffic that barely look on the content and leaves --> Low conversions --> ECPM takes a hit so revenue nosedives.

One solution to prove this theory would be to show GA only to users coming from search engines...

Maybe not just search engines, but all your biggest sources of your traffic. Or just set it up so Adsense will not be shown to Stumbleupon visitors.

If you test this, I'd love to know the results. That would be interesting to see whether showing Adsense only to traffic most likely to click and convert can improve revenues.

Have you checked with your Google Analytics how much Adsense revenue Stumbleupon visitors have given you those times you were featured?

[edited by: alika at 4:04 pm (utc) on Oct 14, 2010]

[BillyS]

I think Frank44 nailed it. I suspect everyone is out of "the weekly cycle" for smart pricing calculation, and is therefore being smart-priced.

Huh? Do you even know what Smart Pricing is? Frank's example has nothing to do with Smart Pricing. His example talks about the LACK of clicks. For the uninitiated and guessers out there:

Google is constantly analyzing data across the Google Network. If our data shows that a click from a Google Network page is less likely to turn into an actionable business result - such as an online sale, registration, phone call, or newsletter signup - we may reduce the bid for that site

This is what Frank said:

Is it possible that we are being Smart priced?

Lately I have been Sumbleduponed a couple of times and I know that users coming from there do not click... What's your thoughts?

I'm done with this thread, you guys figure it out. I'm only posting this because misstatement of facts will confuse lurkers out there...

Stop guessing and start looking at your log files. Look for changes in where the traffic is coming from and where it's landing.

[Frank44]

Relax guys! :)
I just mentioned the fact that stumblers don't click because...it is true and if you have a lot of traffic with few clicks your cpm and ctr will nose dive!

Lately, my traffic has increased (both because of stumbleupon and search engine) but clicks are remained almost the same.

This make me think that ***MAYBE*** I am being smart priced because of this.

@alika: I just checked the stumpleupon traffic. In a couple days I got xz.000 visitor and.....26 clicks from them...Bhuuu! This make me think that ***MAYBE*** I am smart pricing and ***MAYBE*** other bloggers here are experiencing the same if not with stumblers maybe with high surge of traffic and low conversions. Does it make sense?

@BillyS: Why do you want to leave us so early? We are so happy here in our little room speculating about this c.r.a.p (Conversion Rates Are Poor) :)

[edited by: Frank44 at 5:36 pm (utc) on Oct 14, 2010]

[JCKline]

I just want to say that I'm not a blogger and have 9+ year old, well established website running AdSense. Today my CTR is slightly above normal, yet my eCPM is still very low and with all of the clicks I have only made $2 and change. By the end of yesterday, CTR improved, yet eCPM and Earnings were thw worst ever...under $2. Something happened and I'm onlt seeing CTR returning to normal. Are things going to "catch-up"? Maybe, but after a week of this, I'm going to once again experiment with alternatives in hopes for improvement.

[netmeg]

Wouldn't surprise me if the Smart Pricing calculations get tweaked from time to time. But we don't know, we'll never know, and Google will never tell us. Those of you waiting for Google to fix something or announce something - ain't gonna happen. Frankly I was amazed they even made a statement for the 6th. Because as soon as they so, then every dip for whatever reason gets read as a Google glitch.

I'm way up this month, but yesterday saw a sizeable dip (and only a slight dip in traffic) Today's back to normal again, maybe a little up. I can't make anything concrete out of that, and neither can you.

The reality is that AdSense is what it is, and you can either live with it or you can't. I have made a lot of money from it over the years, but that doesn't stop me from developing other revenue streams. I can't assume that AdSense will always be paying me at least what it pays me now (or more) because I have virtually no control over what happens. Google isn't going to significantly change their business model for us. Work on what you can control, don't freak out over what you can't.

[MsHuggys]

It is real obvious in my nitch what is going on. Retailers are advertising heavily on Wednesday, taking over the top positions, if not all positions in the ad blocks. Since most of my visitors won't click on retail ads, it drives down my ctr until the properly targeted ads make it back up to the top. I was looking at this yesterday, working on the site, and every page I viewed had retailer display (cpm) ads taking my top block, on EVERY page I viewed. In my feed... it won't reset to one ad every four feed posts, is stuck on the default 1:1 ratio. So, I had a retailer ad after every feed post. (ugh)

Today, the retailer ads are gone, and properly targeted ads are up, again. I can't block the retailers on my #1 site, because I need those ads on my #2 site. It would have been nice to be able to block ads from showing on specific sites in the Adsense publisher's account, not account-wide. That way we could assist in proper targeting. If the retailers pull out all stops days before Black Friday, it could kick our butts.

I suspect this is taking place in part because here in the U.S, many people are paid on Thursday and Friday. People order online on Wednesday when they are using debits cards, something that has increased quite a bit the last couple years, knowing the payment won't hit their bank until Thursday or Friday when their paycheck is electronically deposited in their bank. Online retailers are trying to grab the money on Wednesday, before people head out to brick and mortar to spend their paychecks on Thursday and Friday. Since Wednesday is "church night" in the U.S., many shop during the day online. That is when I am getting plowed with the retailer ads, Wednesday before supper. My CTR is about 50% on Wednesday than what it is the other days of the week.

Since kids go back to school here as early as the first week of August in some states, we saw Wednesday back-to-school retailer ads popping up in mid June getting much more heavy in July, about the time Adsense sent out notices about getting optimized for 'back-to- school'.

Over the years, Monday to Thursday was always great with Fri and Sat very weak, and things picking up Sunday nights after churches and malls had closed up. We used to have fantastic traffic rallies from 7pm to 10pm on Sunday. That has changed this past year. Now, we get nearly equal if not more on Friday and Saturday than what we get Mon, Tue and Thur.

The good news is that overall, our Wednesday, though very weak compared to other days of the week is now well-over our historic high of any other day of the week. Earnings have soared, week over week and month over month, looking back over the past five years with Adsense. At the 50% mark for October, we are going to break a record for the highest month, if this trend continues. Wednesday may be bad, but at this point, we are taking the good with the bad and not complaining.

[Edge]

Nutmeg, I agree 100%... well said.

[JCKline]

Well, suddenly things seem to be returning to "normal"...whatever normal is.

The good I found in all of this was I was reminded why I never added Clicksor code to my site in the first place after adding it to one of my pages in place of AdSense...it's annoying! I wanted to get the "H" "E" "double hockey sticks" off my own page ASAP! I like repeat visitors. Thank you Google.

[cien]

Hey I know I'm just a zero to the left here but Cien thinks we need to start us a newer thread with current Adsene issues. What do you guys think? I think this issue has been beaten to death and then beaten again for not getting out of its corner with the bell.

[Frank44]

So how to avoid smart pricing? Any help?
removing ads
removing some ads
increase traffic
what is it going to work?

[netmeg]

Nutmeg, I agree 100%... well said.

NETmeg.

I believe that ALL clicks are smart priced, and that's just a pithy way to denote traffic quality. Smart Pricing is the bone Google threw to advertisers who were complaining because all traffic is not created equal, and some people were sending traffic that would never ever convert.

You don't want to be adversely smart priced, then deliver up quality traffic.

[glitterball]

It is real obvious in my nitch what is going on. Retailers are advertising heavily on Wednesday, taking over the top positions, if not all positions in the ad blocks. Since most of my visitors won't click on retail ads, it drives down my ctr until the properly targeted ads make it back up to the top. I was looking at this yesterday, working on the site, and every page I viewed had retailer display (cpm) ads taking my top block, on EVERY page I viewed. In my feed... it won't reset to one ad every four feed posts, is stuck on the default 1:1 ratio. So, I had a retailer ad after every feed post. (ugh)

I am seeing similar symptoms - but could it be that Google are resetting something on Wednesdays? I'm not seeing retailers, but I am seeing off-target ads (and it was the same last Wednesday as well).

[dibbern2]

So how to avoid smart pricing? Any help?
removing ads
removing some ads
increase traffic

None of the above.
Go back and reread Netmeg's comments. Get quality traffic that converts for your advertisers. Give it time, so that trust builds. This stuff takes months (if not years) of building quality.

And run away from quick spurts of traffic that comes from social media bumps. You want serious visitors, not 3-second gawkers who drag down your quality mix. If you're getting that, do something to turn it off if you can. Its better for you to have 20K quality visitors than 100K net cruisers.

The numbers game is not won by the person with the most traffic, but by the one with the best traffic, which in the AdSense universe, translates to eCPM.

[MsHuggys]

Glitterball, I've been in this industry for decades. Watching shopper and advertising trends, long before the internet was a vision.

To me, this is a classic Wednesday marketing scheme launched by retailers to get out in front of spenders. Your ads may not be "retail", but if they are selling a product or service, as all ads do, they fit the model.

It wasn't always this way. In the less-savvy web advertising days, it use to be Thursday, before employer direct deposits and debit cards became the norm the past few years. It was always a day off from brick and mortar.

In fact, many retailers in the U.S. still put their ads out from Wednesday to Tuesday, especially grocers. Some things do not change. What has changed is that the web has finally merged with brick and mortar proven advertising techniques.

It makes sense that any company who is selling a product or service on the web has to advertise. It also makes sense that they have to do this right before people get paid. The average American is broke by Monday, starting their work week with empty pockets. Industry knows this. If you want their money, you have to grab it between Thursday night and Sunday night, that means luring them in on Wednesday, when it comes to web marketing. In the old days, the ads came out on Wednesday, to give the common shopper an opportunity to browse the ads, comparrison shop and be ready to hit the stores on Friday, so people have what they need to begin their weekend.

In blue collar communities, that insanity starts on Thursday night, when many blue collar workers have been paid. Go to a white collar community, where everybody is paid on Friday, and you won't see the madness on Thursday night.

In our early web days, only people with money were on the web and shopping, upper middle class and above. Now, the common man and woman are shopping on the web, due to cheap internet, cheap computers and debit cards. Even those who can't qualify for a credit card can shop online with their debit cards.

There was also a time when in order to get a debit card, a credit check was required. Now, debit cards are handed out to people who can't get credit, some of them on public aid, with no job at all as government agencies have moved all payments to debit cards, exclusively. Though those on aid of some kind or working for the government, fit into a different advertising model, the 1st, 3rd, 15th and 30th ad campaigns that get out in front of those pay dates.

This means the overall target market on the web has changed significantly, from say... 2000, when 'average' Americans thought shopping online meant going to eBay.

There may very well be other schemes involved, that some publishers are seeing, but it is a given there is a century-long retail scheme in place that is changing the web market on Wednesdays.

[JCKline]

Here I am again today with my impressions only showing 600+ and 1 click for .06 ? Yesterday seemed normal, but today is the absolute worst! I hope whatever the engineers "tweek" tomorrow has something to do with fixing these odd stats.

[Play_Bach]

Stats stuck. Haven't moved in hours.

[mhale]

My clicks/eCPM were horrible this morning, and then there was a "click dump" at about 10 AM, I think? It was looking dire before that. It's been moving nicely the rest of the day. If it continues to do so, it'll be another good day. (Not spectacular, but definitely good.)

[Play_Bach]

What is going on?

[cien]

Friday ended up being an extremely good day. No stuck stats at anytime. CTR, Impressions went through the roof. Hope the weekend is all good.

[zerillos]

on Oct 15 I had 25% more traffic and clicks than usual, earnings however, have been lower than on the 14th
.....

[nethead]

Our stats seem to be dead today. Anyone else experiencing this today? I hope we get a click dump soon.