Okay, well here is something we should all try to listen in on, it might be a clue and maybe something other than speculation.
] Some more information about their F10 Q4 earnings preview [themarketfinancial.com
Unfortunately, it seems that Google has grown audience and their share prices have risen accordingly, however, we have to understand their financial picture to understand why we could be seeing reduced earnings in the first month of F11.
[sic]"The recession is already being felt by thousands of internet web site publishers that rely heavily on google adsense earnings that are witnessing drops in earnings rates of more than 50% in recent weeks as Google passes on the falling revenues directly to publishers in an attempt to bolster its bottom line."
Taken from [marketoracle.co.uk
If history repeats itself, the article above from 2008 might apply to what we're seeing in 2011. The time periods, fiscally, correspond. Looking back at my data from 2008 it would seem that we actualized an earnings reduction, only for it to rebound in the second and third quarter as Google hypothetically made up for some type of loss.
Not to throw out numbers here, but we've historically done well with Adsense, triple digits well. It makes me wonder if we're going to see news about some financial difficulties at Google. If I were running Google, this is one of the most logical places that I would target for expense reductions, simply reduce the publisher share of revenue and retain a larger portion of the revenue for the company.
It sucks, I know, but we have to try to wade through factual information which could allow us to create a theory on what we're collectively seeing, then maybe we can adjust our budgets based on previous trends and move on.