Facebook versus Google

[Whitey]

Over 30 years of running business' referral traffic has always outperformed "tire kickers". The ratio of sales traditionally was 25% of referrals convert and less than 8-10% of raw sales leads convert.

Not much has changed, except that ratio of converts from search clicks is a lot less for most folks. Probably 5% on brand would be good and 1-2% on search to clicks would be reasonable.

So, with Facebook limbering up for an IPO , I'm seeing some interesting personalisations occuring with folks like TripAdvisor - who were recently upset with Google for using their content. Can this type of thing really be engineered to take business away from search in a big way ? Is it a real threat to Google ?

The power of social referal versus Google search ?

[tedster]

This is a frontier we're going to need to watch - it's still very early and evolution is rapid. Google definitely feels there's competition here, a new way to get traffic and results without traditional search. I also think there's something to it, but how that will play out... I'm not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a total wild card emerge in the next two years that makes the Facebook/Google dichotomy seem like the wrong question.

[StoutFiles]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a total wild card emerge in the next two years that makes the Facebook/Google dichotomy seem like the wrong question.

It's already happening. More and more people are shifting to setups like iOS where the application store is their new search engine. Searching through Google for anything but something incredibly obscure will be dead before you know it.

[GlobalMax]

The power of social referal versus Google search ?

Social is better for keeping up with events in friends' lives. Search is better for knowledge retrieval.

When it's time to research a new car purchase, or figure out how to fix a bug, or investigate a medical condition, or learn a myriad of other matters, I'm searching, not asking my friends. As intelligent as my friends are, there are many more sources of expertise outside my circle, many of my needs do not warrant bothering friends, and personal email messages work fine for the rest. For me, Facebook does not figure into most of the needs satisfied by Google.

I agree with tedster that serious search disruption is more likely to come from an unknown third source.

[Reno]

Social is better for keeping up with events in friends' lives. Search is better for knowledge retrieval.

What many of us want to know is what people will use to search for products? You suggest in your car example that they'll use search. I think it may be a hybrid interface ~ they may start with search to see what is available, then there could be an immediate seamless integration with the wide social network (not just immediate friends) to see what people think of the search result choices.

So for example, a person goes to FB and uses the FB default search partner to look for "best cosmetic widget", and the results show EyeWidget and EarWidget in the top positions, and next to the listings are the Likes / Dislikes tally for each, based on FB's feedback retrieval from the member community.

In this example, FB is not setting up their own search engine but their input is as important as the SE. That's just a rough sketch of one possibility ~ as tedster said, "it's still very early and evolution is rapid."

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[Planet13]

What I really want to know is how does the mindset of a google visitor differ from the mindset of an FB user?

By default, a person going to google is searching for something, right?

What is the mindset of someone going to facebook? It's probably not for searching...

[Whitey]

It's probably not for searching

I think it could be. Often people are looking for that endorsement or recommendation from people they know - so call it the ultimate trust. It may vary according to the vertical though - I acknowledge that the context of the search might well be different though.

If the catchment and testimony is large enough I think FB could play a part. Others as well , like Foursquare , LinkedIn etc etc

[Alex_TJ]

If we're talking about the search bar at the top of FB, how many of us has actually done a search there for anything except a friend's name, email or a site you're following? I certainly never have, and considering the context of what I do on FB it wouldn't occur to me.
Sometimes I'll post a question as my status to ask friends for suggestions or ideas, sure, but that's not scaleable and you're not going to do that every time you're in the market for a new widget or widget service.
I think the actual place where we start off our research will continue to be the SE, but with a bit of social feedback thrown in, a bit like G's recent update. And that's the natural place and role for our friends' input.
The only major role for referrals and on-FB interaction, besides all this 'liking', IMO is for services, especially high value and personal services (no, not that).

[zerillos]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a total wild card emerge in the next two years that makes the Facebook/Google dichotomy seem like the wrong question.

the only real improvement in search i can see at this point is context oriented. by this i mean asking a question, literally, and getting an answer. this would require sci-fi levels of AI so it doesn't seem plausible, or at least i haven't seen anything to prove me wrong, recently.

the data is all here: product info pages, reviews, images, video, comments, feedback, personal opinions and affinities. all it's needed is a system to aggregate all that into a proper answer.

@GlobalMax
you're right. FB is more of a personal preference matter. even with their 'like' (or tweet for that matter) buttons, they can't get the same level of web coverage as a full blown search engine. if you ask me, the most immediate competitor for G is bing, but i could be wrong on that.

What is the mindset of someone going to FB? It's probably not for searching...

as someone said here today...word! question: how many times did you use the search box on FB other than for finding one of your friend's page?

[tedster]

the only real improvement in search i can see at this point is context oriented. by this i mean asking a question, literally, and getting an answer. this would require sci-fi levels of AI so it doesn't seem plausible

IBM's Watson? Put the best guess Watson-like answer in a top box, but then follow with references and/or other ideas. But I agree, even IBM needed strong context rules (Jeopardy format) to work their magic.

[tedster]

Oh my - I just spotted this new Google development on Engadget. Google is moving faster than I thought in this direction.

Searching for the title of an upcoming movie or video game plus "release date" will now instantly give you Google's best guess for when the title will actually be released, which is apparently based on how often it's been mentioned on certain websites.

[engadget.com...]

[zerillos]

interesting, but i bet they're just averaging data :)

regarding watson, I do remember it was an application in the healthcare field. It was smth about reading the right diagnostic i believe.

[Dan01]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a total wild card emerge in the next two years that makes the Facebook/Google dichotomy seem like the wrong question.

And that could be mobile. Google has the advantage there too though. At least with Android. We will see.

[CMidd]

What about search highjacking?

I was in a niche, medium amount of searches monthly. I set up a facebook group, and fanpage, and i literally push the info out before people need to search for.

the total number of monthly searches droped, but my traffic has been increase. People no longer go to google to search they visit my facebook page, or facegroup Or see one of my weekly post" to get info "some info on the group, some leading back to my site". this site sat at number 4 of Google, but command 10 time more traffic then number 1.

As brands, and information portal start to connect more with users in social media, they could beat Google to the punch.

Why search for x if that info is posted to you wall, shared by a friend, or an advertisement message on the right side bar, or your part of that companies Fanpage?

When the japan disaster happened my first click was from a friend post on Facebook. i didn't have to google it.

When a company released a new feature, i got it from Their Facebook Fanpage update. I didn't have to Google to learn about it.

When a new concert or show was released, i seen it first on Facebook ad. and didn't have to Google for it.

All of those sources of info a year ago would have been from a Google searches.

if Facebook really really wanted it to, they could easily replace Google Search with a bing search bar integrate into the page "with more call to action". But i doubt Facebook feels like trying to take Google market share but it's naturally going that way.

Remember one of the main starting factor of the google ranking algorithm was "picking site that other people like and viewed for a given keyword/subject i.e. Back Links" Facebook Friend share are the most purest from of Backlinks, user votes, peer review,etc LMAO.

I give way more weight to a post shared by a friend, then a Google number one result, and if Facebook really attack search "recommended friends search and liked sites, using my past stored data to find better results, etc" I would switch.

[Dan01]

What I really want to know is how does the mindset of a google visitor differ from the mindset of an FB user?

It kinda reminds me of this forum or texting. LOL It is addicting. My daughter is on Facebook all the time. Personally, I rarely go there - other than to see how many people are following our website feed.

[Whitey]

My daughter is on Facebook all the time. Personally, I rarely go there

You must be older :) Maybe it's time to listen to your daughter for insight into the future. What does she think ?

[zehrila]

They might not be direct competitors on product searches, but both twitter and facebook are helping average to high profile businesses to reach their customers directly and sell their products. I did a thesis in 2009, where i learnt that Dell earned few million dollars engaging with their customers through social media, twitter and facebook.

I have a website, that has minimal traffic and hardly any traffic coming from google converts into sales, however, the facebook page has 23k fans, and we get 30 to 50 orders through facebook fan page every day.

Using Facebook ads, gift schemes and engaging directly with your customers, you might have better chances of interacting with customers and selling products. Shift might be gradual, but there will be a shift.

[walkman]

Honestly, I buy everything at Amazon and read a gazillion reviews first. I don't trust my friends :)

[Simsi]

Isn't this effectively what the rumoured Google Circles is (would be/could be etc) all about? A fair bit of what's been mentioned along with the ability fot Google to measure and factor in social opinion cold soon be here if this comes off. And it certainly seems to have something that Facebook doesnt. Could be another Buzz but then again it sounds like this has a USP and sounds better IMO.

It would also say to me that Google - this would be their 3rd attempt I think - is very concerned about Facebook and what it could do to search down the line and that they clearly believe search and social belong together in the future.

[mrguy]

According to stats, more people use Facebook than Google on any given day. Now, if Facebook were to have an actual search engine instead of what they have now, those people would never need to leave Facebook and that's a LOT of people.

Google is trying so hard to get into the social media thing but came to late to the party and will not be able to pull all the Facebook users over to them.

Between Google missing the boat on social media and their reputation among webmasters and users alike as being the new big evil, there is going to be big shift in the coming years and Google is not going to like it one bit.

[CMidd]

According to stats, more people use Facebook than Google on any given day. Now, if Facebook were to have an actual search engine instead of what they have now, those people would never need to leave Facebook and that's a LOT of people.

Don't forget impressions and time on page.

Google is just a gateway to other sites, Facebook is a destination "and sometime a the first stop on the web"

If Facebook came out with a search option and really pushed it, Google's days would be numbered.

[Reno]

If Facebook came out with a search option and really pushed it, Google's days would be numbered.

Well said, though I'd say that while the company Google will survive, "Google as we know it" may be a thing of the past IF the FB search engine has sufficient strengths.

Facebook's impact on many of our visitor counts and subsequent sales has already been significant. In the pre-FB world, people would come home from work and surf the web using a search engine as their initial gateway. Now, as was stated, FB is itself the initial destination and because of it's structure, millions of people do not ever leave FB during their entire web session. Thus, we lose those visitors who found us in the "old days" because they started with a SE and simply followed links, and we have lost any impulse buying that may have resulted from those visits.

I have not found or even conceived of a way to utilize FB as an income generator, so I tip my hat to anyone who has cracked that nut.

ps. Don't be surprised if there's a FB email program in the near future, similar to gmail and yahoo mail. Will be one more reason for people to stay within the FB walls.

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[BillyS]

I love it when someone says that FB is the wave of the future. What future? The future Match dot com? The only thing people search for on FB is an old girlfriend. It's a place to reignite old flames. (That's one of the reasons I don't even bother.)

Advertising on FB is like a pushy salesman walking in on a party. Ignored.

I work for a fortune 200 company that has a presence on FB - why? Because someone in our marketing department thinks we need to be there. Do we do anything with the account? Nope.

FB is a royal waste of time and more companies will eventually start blocking the site altogether. Right now, a lot of companies are too scared to block it.

The biggest benefit FB has brought many companies is a reason to fire someone - misuse of company assets. It's also a great tool to spy on someone. I know of a discharge that occurred because someone out on a long term illness was talking about how nice it was to be in Aruba. He came back to a discharge letter. (Example data based on multiple events that I know of...)

[walkman]

Hmmmmmmm...let's see how your assertions hold up.
FB uses Bing. For 99% of people is perfect. It may or may not be as good as Google but it's good enough for almost everyone. If so many people use FB why is Google still it for searches?

And never be sure of who will rule 2-5 years from now. MySpace, Bebo, AOL IM, Digg are all gone. And US was supposed to be ruled by Japanese overlords in the 1980's. We'll see about the Chinese ones very soon :)

[Reno]

I am completely confident in my assertion that Google has hurt our web sites visitors count, for the reasons I stated ~ people go through its gates and stay there until it's time to walk away from the keyboard.

And as I mentioned, I cannot figure any way to tap into that huge community, which for the people in that community, may very well be a good thing because it will keep it less commercial if the rest of us are unable to maximize it as an income stream.

I certainly agree that bing works fine for the 99%, so why would FB want an inhouse search engine? The main reason that comes to mind is M-O-N-E-Y. Once they have the IPO and become more widely stockholder owned, they must develop an income model, and paid SE sponsored ads has a tremendous track record for doing exactly that.

So, get members inside the gated community, give them an email program, give them a search engine with FaceAds on the right, and the only thing left to do is count the $$.

ps. Then look for a "FaceTube" type of service, so people can share their home videos. Reason? More ads, more money.

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[BillyS]

So, get members inside the gated community, give them an email program, give them a search engine with FaceAds on the right, and the only thing left to do is count the $$.

Let's see, it took MS about six years and a ton of money to achieve reasonable results. How is FB going to afford that? Oh yes, they have millions. Unfortunately they need billions. BTW - Google isn't waiting for them to catch up either.


Yeah, and that gated community - great. Let's see how much longer everyone's boss let's them hang out on FB. Doesn't anyone have a real job? No. Five years from now we'll all be hanging out in FBLand.

My prediction - FB will be old news five years from now, something new (and fresh) will come along. BBS, Geocities, sixdegress, myspace... the list of fads goes on and on.

[Reno]

BBS, Geocities, sixdegress, myspace...

...and in 5 years we may or may not add Google to that list, though I hope not, as I have no reason to want to see them fail. In the list above, the only failure surprise (to me) is MySpace, and they probably would have prospered had they been run by people as technologically advanced as FB (rather than led by an Australian senior citizen media mogul). So we'll see ~ predictions are slippery slopes. All I know is what I see right now, and that is folks around me with minimal or moderate computer skills loving FB because it's pretty simple and seems (for whatever reason) to mostly fulfill their online requirements. For now at least.

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[Whitey]

Advertising on FB is like a pushy salesman walking in on a party. Ignored.

No way. I know a venue chain that uses FB to promote it's events via FB / friends. Each weekend more than 20,000 people attend those venues, which is entirely attributable to the promotion.

Sales per week exceed $1M ( entry and add on's ). And i would consider them minute in global terms.

Those clever marketers in the right verticals that can think outside the square can use social media to highly influence targeted propositions.

Google can't do this. But , i guess the question is how can FB monetize this success? They will need to be creative Y/N?

[incrediBILL]

I find this whole debate amusing because the internet actually started out as Social and was for a very long time with AOL, Delphi, Compuserve, etc. Then it decentralized with BBS's and FidoNet which later migrated to web servers as the actual internet evolved. People at finding all this new freedom outside social networks split up into their own niches like WebmasterWorld all over the web. Now they're recombining back into major social networks again like Facebook and LinkedIn, it's just a cycle repeating itself.

Even social and search is nothing new really as AOL provided some of the original search for people and having Facebook possibly repeat the process is a bit more daunting these days without a partnership like Bing.

If you ask me, the real topic is Google vs Bing because the relationships with Facebook and Yahoo could literally make or break Bing at this point.

Timing is everything, just like when Yahoo dumped Inktomi for Google back in 2000. Yahoo virtually was the web, portal/social, whatever, but they put Google in the spotlight (fatal mistake) and everyone fell in love with it. Then 2 years later Yahoo swapped back to Inktomi but it was too late, Google was the golden child. OOPS!

I don't see Facebook replacing Google, I see it potentially handing the search crown to Bing unless Bing is too stupid to seize the opportunity and meet the needs of the Facebook crowd.

History is about to repeat if Bing is awake.

[Sgt_Kickaxe]

Wait for it - the facebook "social" browser!

When that happens, if it gets legs, Facebook may indeed surplant Google. Until a convenient Google search box isn't on most browsers and on many websites nothing will change.