Facebook versus Google

[Whitey]

Over 30 years of running business' referral traffic has always outperformed "tire kickers". The ratio of sales traditionally was 25% of referrals convert and less than 8-10% of raw sales leads convert.

Not much has changed, except that ratio of converts from search clicks is a lot less for most folks. Probably 5% on brand would be good and 1-2% on search to clicks would be reasonable.

So, with Facebook limbering up for an IPO , I'm seeing some interesting personalisations occuring with folks like TripAdvisor - who were recently upset with Google for using their content. Can this type of thing really be engineered to take business away from search in a big way ? Is it a real threat to Google ?

The power of social referal versus Google search ?

[Reno]

History is about to repeat if Bing is awake.

A good historical review incrediBill. Google rose to the top because they were the best; Facebook beat MySpace because they had the superior interface; Twitter has quickly gained popularity because it is an easy-to-use and relatively new hybrid between chat and a BBS, and has no real competition in that realm.

But in regards to Bing, the reason it has not taken the world by storm is because it is not noticeably better than Google and thus gives people little reason to break old habits. However I take your point ~ if Bing can figure out a unique Facebook-centric interface (for the FB users at least), one which combines the typical search results with "community feedback", then it has a chance to break out. But if it remains Google-lite, then they better get used to their second banana status.

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[tedster]

Bing engineers have also admitted publicly that their algos are not as good as Google's on longer query phrases - and they're right. For deep research, Google still holds the crown, tarnished though it may be. Bing also doesn't index nearly as many URLs for most sites, from what I've seen even last week.

I don't look for Facebook to seriously damage Google any time soon - though their own web search powered by Bing could bit off a decent chunk of the audience for Bing. As a user, I do bounce out of Facebook a decent amount of time, checking something a friend mentioned to me.

[incrediBILL]

As a user, I do bounce out of Facebook a decent amount of time, checking something a friend mentioned to me.

That's the trick for Facebook and Bing to simply keep you from bouncing out of Facebook.

Doesn't even have to be a perfect search experience, just has to be good enough to keep you into Facebook using Bing.

Won't happen over night but if the bulk of the Farmville playing crowd is as listless as I give them credit for, they'll take the path of least resistance to get answers which is to remain safely cloaked within the confines of the Facebook environment.

Google rose to the top because they were the best

However, if Yahoo hadn't given them the "big break" at the time, putting Google in front of millions of faces, where would they be now?

[CMidd]

What ever people use Facebook for "people love to critize new worthly stories LOL" this is what facebook has become.


Number one online Chat/IM service provider!

Number one Photo sharing site.

Number one Family connection Site.

Facebook is the number one distination for many. They login for Chat alerts or Message alerts the same way you log into Yahoo, or MSN.

A lot of the younger generation Neglect Email all together. They only send personal messages through Text or Facebook. I was shocked when my Lil Sister who is 15 didn't use email and only used facebook messaging.

matter of fact I would have to say, more of my personal communications between friends and associates have been through Facebook over the last years. "maybe not on the Facebook Site, but though the FB app on my Blackberry"



Facebook is becoming a communication Infrastructure, and as it integrate more, it will not be replaceable.

it will become the Cisco Router of Personal Web Communication Infrastructure.

it will become the TCP/IP of Family/Friend Connection

It will become the SMTP of personal communication

it will become the XMPP of personal chat communication

it will become the Apache of Photo Sharing

it will become the LDAP of Web Authentication


Facebook is a destination and infrastructure, while Google is only a Gateway to find sites "like Facebook".

Gateways can always be replaced. Cool site can be topped by a cooler site, but Infrastructure can't be replaced as easy.

Now Facebook started in my opinion as just another cool site and not worth the time, but it has transitioned into something different.

Expect Facebook to be around for a while, and to grow.

Expect Google to lose market share in Search and expand it's operation into other markets "cell phones,devices, software, etc"

[CMidd]

Onces Facebook take a single stab at Search with any type of ad system expect it to explode "even if it's only 7/10 as good as google"

[Reno]

with any type of ad system

I totally agree. For many small businesses, buying keyword phrases via AdWords has become unaffordable. When I started with PPC at GoTo, I could buy good position for really good phrases for a couple pennies; now, those same phrases for me are off the table ~ they cost too much.

So I know for myself, I'd jump in at Facebook immediately even if I only got a year out of it, before that also got beyond my budget... and I bet millions of others would do the same, so FB-Search would hit the ground running and the pre$$ reports from that would be extraordinary.

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[Leosghost]

Infrastructure

I think you may need to look up the actual meaning of Infrastructure ..and some of the other words you used.

facebook is just another flavour of walled garden ..there have been many ..none have lasted ..there will be others ..none will last ..its called churn ..happens to search engines to ..but Google is making a financial profit for itself and its advertisers ..

facebook at the moment is merely amassing data on a limited set of particular demographics ..it has yet to make an actual profit ( making money before deductions is not making a profit ) ..it has yet to find a way to make a profit ( although its owners and investors may do so when someone with real money buys them out ) ..

And very few of those who advertise on it actually make a real profit ...

Someone posted in another thread here today that one company takes ( not makes as in "profit" after deductions ) a million per week by getting facebookers to its "events" offline..what is it's real bottom line profit ? ..not a million that is for sure ..to organise major events ( rock concerts, sports etc ) costs a great deal of money ..the profits are not huge ( worthwhile ..but not huge ) ..most people confuse cashflow with profit ..

Even more people confuse hyped up "social" sites that get attention in the west with actual profit making ( for their owners and advertisers ) social sites ..most of them are not in the west ..but in Asia.

[Leosghost]

FB-Search

They could n't get their own ( entirely in house ) up and running and accurate without massive investment ( from where ? ) and a few years work ..meanwhile Google and Bing would not be standing still ..even Bing has too much of a head start over facebook if it came to search .

And Bing has MS money behind it ...lots of ..and MS has cashflow ..lots of it .

Unless another big player ..MS, apple etc ( Google could buy it ..but would the authorities allow the purchase ) bought it ..real usefull search isn't coming to facebook anytime soon ..unless they do a deal with MS to provide it ..and MS are already having a hard time providing quality search integration to Yahoo ( who already had the infrastructure and experience for both search and communities )..Apple are cash heavy ..but would they want to get into search ..or just buy another walled garden ..the latter maybe ..

Or someone unthought of will maybe make a bid for facebook ..its data is worth a great deal ..but only if the fan base stays "loyal" ..and a year is along long long time on the internet.

And so far facebooks ad rates are not cheap ( even compared to Google ) ..and the actual real ROI experienced by advertisers is not that good ..at least not for those who are selling .. branding is different matter..the big brands are using it hard ..not to sell directly ..but to soften you up to buy later from their B&M' outlets

[Reno]

They couldn't get their own ( entirely in house ) up and running and accurate without massive investment

If MS/Bing is smart (or "awake", to quote incrediBill), they would propose to FB that they simply be the hidden engine behind the interface, but up front, to the FB member, it would all appear to be a Facebook baby. That allows the engineers at FB to tell the engineers at MS what they want and how they want it, and it allows the designers at FB to seamlessly integrate it into their community.

All that can be done without FB having to build from the ground up. MS Bing has the servers, the algo and the index database to handle the internals, and FB has the external shell that people seem to love.

Then work out a deal to share the ad revenue.

Re FB finances, as you know this is not a garage startup ~ from the March 11th TechCrunch:

New Facebook Valuation Record As Shares Surge 5% To $31.50

That values Facebook, with roughly 2.5 billion shares outstanding, at $78.75 billion

$78 Billion is a hunk of change ~ read the Full Story [techcrunch.com]

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[Leosghost]

That is a valuation ( by those ..not techcrunch..but many of the "experts" behind the hype .. with an interest in hyping the value ) ..but agree entirely with you Reno ( frequently do ;-) ..if MS did a back door deal ..but .

Most facebookers ..are not old enough to know of MS's ad rep ..so why bother hiding a deal from them ..

MS tend to assimilate or partner then "stea^^^^^^borrow" the "idea"..then destroy ( usually via suffocation ) the victim.

78 billion dollars is waaaaay above what it is worth ..but the sugarboy doesn't seem to think that reason or actual profits matter ..as long as he is being courted by investors that think it will happen ( and bear in mind ..most of the "investors" are not actually playing with nor risking their own money ..but are getting paid to "invest" it nevertheless )..if facebook never makes a real profit ..Mark and the people doing the investing with other peoples money will have still got rich ..

[CMidd]

I think you may need to look up the actual meaning of Infrastructure ..and some of the other words you used.

facebook is just another flavour of walled garden ..there have been many ..none have lasted ..there will be others ..none will last ..its called churn ..happens to search engines to ..but Google is making a financial profit for itself and its advertisers ..

There has never been another like Facebook.

Unlike any other i have seen.

I was shocked that a few months ago my non technical mother joined Facebook.

Everyone in my immdiate family is connect to Facebook. We even our Family union was created by an event posted by one of my family list.

Take an organization, they have mailing list. Facebook "even if people stop using the site as much" would still be the place to Email the Family, or Contact Friends, or Get friend info"

it's communication system is an upgrade to email.


No other social media site had a focus like that.

deny it if you want, but i bet a large majority of your friend and family are using. matter of fact I would bet cash on it. And a much larger percent who used any of the other walled gardens

[Whitey]

$78 Billion is a hunk of change

That's Facebook $78 B versus Google's $180 B [google.com...] on today's date . Cash flows are different though.

[incrediBILL]

I was shocked that a few months ago my non technical mother joined Facebook.

Everyone in my immdiate family is connect to Facebook. We even our Family union was created by an event posted by one of my family list.

Take an organization, they have mailing list. Facebook "even if people stop using the site as much" would still be the place to Email the Family, or Contact Friends, or Get friend info"

it's communication system is an upgrade to email.

You've just described the original AOL experience.

Same thing, different day, technology moved forward, AOL didn't, eventually people left the walled garden.

Facebook is the next wave of AOL, Yahoo/Geocities, Myspace, etc.

It could last if they play their cards right, but it could also be extinct in 5-10 years.

[edited by: incrediBILL at 3:57 am (utc) on Mar 20, 2011]

[mrguy]

Facebook has something that Myspace and others did not have in their battle against Google.

More people use Facebook than Google. I don't recall seeing a movie about mypace or any of the others. Facebook has become a part of culture just as Google did.

Will facebook kill google, I doubt it but it's going to seriously eat into their market share if they really go after search.

[Leosghost]

but i bet a large majority of your friend and family are using. matter of fact I would bet cash on it.

You would lose your bet ;-)
I am not you ..my friends and family are not yours ..
No one in my family has a facebook account ..nor do any of my friends ( I know this because I am their "go to person" for when their computors have a problem"..not one has a face book account ..not one of them wants one.
they view facebook as a "timesuck" for people without a real life and who have no creativity.

facebook is for the people who walk around outside 25% of the day looking at their phones to see if someone has rung them or texting someone else..they spend another 25% ( if they can drive ) driving whilst texting or phoning ..another 25% on facebook at work or school ( only if they work for someone else or they'd go broke if it was their own time ) and the last 25% is spent on facebook and or texting and or watching "reality TV"..

People who do the above with their time are not and never will be my friends ;-)..and my 18 year old son prefers doing things and making things and having real conversations rather than opening a facebook account ..then again he makes websites and computor games and rides bikes and walks and reads etc etc and has friends with IQ's that actually get into triple figures ..

He does like 4chan ( inventiveness is there ..like at deviantart ) and youtube and many online fora ..animation and 3D stuff and game design , flash etc ..but thinks facebook is for the sheeple and those who wish to manipulate them ..the manipulation he isn't averse to ;-) ..but he'd rather do that via cellphone games and apps ..and you can get them to go "viral" without actually having to use facebook..others will go there and rave about what you do for you ..;-)

Oh ..and none of us have twitter accounts either ..nor are we interested in what anyone tweets ;-) ..But then all of our 6 phones here ( fixed and mobile ) are unlisted ..all except one of my fixed business lines..

@Bill ..yep ..I remember compuserve and AOL ..and all the others since ..all walled ..all gone ..I shed no tears ..

[incrediBILL]

they view facebook as a "timesuck" for people without a real life and who have no creativity.

See, that's the kind of Luddite reactions that keep many people anchored in the past and missing the present.

My nephew is critically acclaimed up and coming author, several new books recently published, uses Facebook to keep in touch with his fan base, hardly call him lacking in creativity, nor myself, my wife, nor the tons of photographers and artists using Facebook.

Our family uses Facebook to post all our pictures of all the kids so mom, dad, granny, aunts and uncles can all see them instantly for free - used to be a Flickr thing but Flickr is so Myspace these days.

I signed up for Facebook and everyone I ever knew in school suddenly friended me, didn't know they were even alive 30+ years later, how else would you know unless you never left home in the first place? It's literally killing sites like Classmates.

FWIW, it's only a timesuck if you turn it into a timesuck. For many things, like connecting with lost friends or keeping up with relatives, it's actually a time saver because I do it all at once instead of one at a time, meaning that when we have one-on-one time everyone already knows what's going on and it allows a wider and deeper conversation about what's going on with your life instead of keeping people up to speed.

Whether it lasts or not, don't care.

Whether I can clean up on the IPO or not, do care :)

[Leosghost]

The number of creative people using facebook to show what they do is pityfully small Bill ..99.99% of facebookers are as I described them ..which is why Madison ave ( used as an old folks "luddite" reference point for the ad business ;-) is so desperate to get at all the captive sheeple.

My nephew is critically acclaimed up and coming author, several new books recently published, uses Facebook to keep in touch with his fan base, hardly call him lacking in creativity, nor myself, my wife, nor the tons of photographers and artists using Facebook.

You can get other people to do that PR work for you..like having a plumber deal with a blocked toilet ..you don't have to get your own hands dirty ..or at least wash and disinfect them thouroughly after ;-)

Our family uses Facebook to post all our pictures of all the kids so mom, dad, granny, aunts and uncles can all see them instantly for free - used to be a Flickr thing but Flickr is so Myspace these days.

You can do that by posting them to a website ..your own ( I know you have some ;-)..and letting family and friends do so too ..and you don't have to worry about sugarboy showing the world and dog when he switches the privacy setting every 48 hours ..

I signed up for Facebook and everyone I ever knew in school suddenly friended me, didn't know they were even alive 30+ years later, how else would you know unless you never left home in the first place? It's literally killing sites like Classmates.

Whatever turns you on ..I left school I kept contact with those I wished to .the others I avoided then ..I do so now ..

Classmates and similar sites die ..Meh

FWIW, it's only a timesuck if you turn it into a timesuck. For many things, like connecting with lost friends or keeping up with relatives, it's actually a time saver because I do it all at once instead of one at a time, meaning that when we have one-on-one time everyone already knows what's going on and it allows a wider and deeper conversation about what's going on with your life instead of keeping people up to speed.

Covered that with "use your own website" ..give friends and family upload access use scripts to deal with the pics ..CMS for the rest ..you friends , your family , your families pics , your friends , your site , password protected ..;-) ..no more time to set up than an average CMS ..and once done ..the rest is easy ..even for granny ..and you can make the interface way simpler than facebook for her..she doesn't need bells and whistles and walls ..nor does she need to worry about who is seeing pics of the kids in the bath or running minus their costumes on the beach aged 3 .

Depends if you are a private sort of person or a public one..I'm the former ..folks visit us by invite only ..the rest don't get past the gate ..and people rarely get the phone number or one of the email addys.

Whether I can clean up on the IPO or not, do care :)

;-) ..

[Reno]

so why bother hiding a deal from them

Only because Facebook has the "buzz" that MS/Live/Bing has never achieved. Google had it, and probably still does, though it's leaking (sometimes badly). So if MS & FB ever work out an arrangement similar to what I described, then the FB brand and seamless design interface (plus the all important special features only available through the FB community) would make this hypothetical in-house search engine more comfortable to its members ... keeping it "in the family" so to speak.

If these things happen, then for the first time in a decade we'll see Google sweat, and rightfully so.

BTW, I'm not a member of FB (my wife is), simply because I've still not come to have any peace with the whole privacy thing. I know that's a 20th century attitude, but hey, I'm a 20th century guy.

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[tedster]

The point of this thread is not to discuss whether anyone personally likes Facebook - there are naturally those who do and those who don't.

Instead, the opening post asked us to discuss "The power of social referal versus Google search."

Even if someone doesn't like it, or doesn't get it, or doesn't want to get it, there is still a societal force here. I barely use Facebook personally, but I have enterprise clients whose Facebook pages are a force to reckon with, driving targeted traffic to their core website in significant and measurable waves - far beyond what Google does when one hits. And they measure the ROI of their Facebook effort and it is good.

Check out what Proctor and Gamble has committed to their Facebook strategy [adage.com]. And if there's a company anywhere that works hard to comprehend effective marketing, it's P&G.

You'll see in that article that in Oct 2008 the P&G Ted McConnell (general manager-interactive marketing and innovation) expressed a similar feeling to what's being discussed in this thread. "What in heaven's name," he asked, "made you think you could monetize the real estate in which somebody is breaking up with their girlfriend?"

And yet 15 months later, the world's biggest marketer committed a significant chunk of their budget to Facebook and other social media. The change of heart came because P&G changed their core understanding of what marketing actually IS.

A decade ago, Cluetrain Manifesto said "markets are conversations". You can't have a conversation on a search engine.

[incrediBILL]

A decade ago, Cluetrain Manifesto said "markets are conversations". You can't have a conversation on a search engine.

Exactly the point I was trying to make, blame the Turkey 101, just more clear and concise thanks.

Each item I addressed above was about the conversation and the medium that promotes the most efficient means of delivering the conversation is an actual asset, not a timesuck, and will prevail.

The only difference is (almost) everyone is on the internet, has email, and has a phone, but not everyone is really on Facebook, which means the conversation has boundaries and limits until you bridge those gaps.

The current bridge for those gaps is search.

It doesn't really matter if people like Facebook or not, if there are mission critical applications that ultimately mandate it's use, people will go kicking and screaming into the new walled garden.

That's how Facebook will become an ultimate winner is by somehow tying people's daily occupations into Facebook to be more efficient and successful.

[Reno]

but I have enterprise clients whose Facebook pages are a force to reckon with, driving targeted traffic to their core website in significant and measurable way

I have it in my memory that P&G has one of (if not THE) biggest advertising budget of any company. For that reason it's hard for me to directly relate to their success because they are in a position where they can commit a ton of money to something, hire the best people to run it, and essentially make it happen.

I find your quote above to be tantalizing and worthy of much discussion at this venue. If in the immediate future social media becomes a major marketing opportunity, then the question is how the small biz website can tap into that potential. Yes, we can use companies such as P&G as our inspiration, and I appreciate the article because it shows how old-world blue chips are embracing new-world technology trends, but the mystery remains ~ how is this effectively accomplished on a peanut butter & jelly budget? THAT is the challenge for many of us.

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[viggen]

Instead, the opening post asked us to discuss "The power of social referal versus Google search."

...i am right now in charge of promoting a new product, it is a small item that cost less than 10 dollars, everyone can use it somehow, and as a test drive to see if all the order,shipping system in place is working as intended i posted it to my sisters facebook account (she is one of those rare, salesmen,connectors, maven type if you have read the tipping point), now within a couple of minutes i could see how feedback was trickeling in, we gave away a few items if they register at our shop and if they make a photo and share it with their friends they would get another one for half the price, thank godness the whole system worked, we sold within the first week more then what our prediction for the month was...

...this would have never happend with google on that scale that fast that cheap, the question Tedster is even more interesting, how do you identify the Salesmen/Connector/Maven , find them and make them work for you, if you manage that, then FB is a killing...

[Whitey]

The current bridge for those gaps is search

I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate here, but I don't think the issue is "search" exactly. FB and Google are two different beasts doing totally different things.

One engages discussion, the other research. One talks in a structured manner , the other informs according to a query.

What TripAdvisor are doing, for example, by combining the FB code onto their site, is introducing a further structure into the referal search of an organised information system - "where are your friends" , "where are they travelling to" . If you have say 100M users who have had an experience, if you can somehow cause it to be a referral system, you have something very powerful, because it can be considered impartial and trusted, plus you can talk with it.

The same with my earlier example of the venues. " Where are we going on Saturday night"

For me FourSquare and other social media such as Twitter also has potential to compliment FB / Google - but i guess there's only so much space 1 brain can accommodate.

FB does have general acceptance and i believe is way more mature than any other examples provided that are now dead in the water.

Still .... how do they monetize it compared to Google. That's the tricky one.

[mrguy]

There are already many people making a lot of money by running ads on Facebook.

A good majority of my old and new clients ask about getting on Facebook. They all want the like button on their sites.

Facebook is a force to be reckoned with and those that learn to use it their benefit are going to make bank.

[Leosghost]

making a lot of money

are they making a profit though ( many peoole confuse making money "cash flow" and making a "profit" )..or spending money ( hey you get paid either way ;-) ..to get traffic to make cashflow.. but at the end of the day do they make a profit ..
I see many companies now running TV ads that say go to their facebook page ..these are huge companies like Danone, Nestlé , car companies etc ..they are in it for Branding and Brand reinforcement ..I see no small companies spending money ..and no "mom and pops" because the facebook ads are too expensive to run for the ROI.

The big guys will burn, a few hundred thou or a few million just to Brand ..a small business will go belly up if it burns even a few tens of thou or in some cases even a few thou and gets no significant sales from it ..2 or 3 sales from a hundred ads shown is a way to ruin unless your markups are phenomenally high ..

Customer support type use is where I can see it working ŕ la "cluetrain" ..depends if you need it.

[tedster]

how do you identify the Salesmen/Connector/Maven , find them and make them work for you, if you manage that, then FB is a killing...

Yes - exactly. Reaching such influencers is a big part of social marketing success. It makes use a relatively new set of skills. It requires us to revise any "search only" mindset we may be carrying arond. It requires new metrics and new tools that are still in their infancy. And most of all, it is an approach that lines up well with the traditional marketing mind-set. The ideas are not new, but the ability to measure them so precisely is.

There is often a split between the search marketing mindset and the social marketing mindset. We had a good discussion last October about this - SEO is from Mars, SMM is from Venus [webmasterworld.com].

[incrediBILL]

I see no small companies spending money ..and no "mom and pops" because the facebook ads are too expensive to run for the ROI.

I had my kitchen remodeled from a small shop doing local advertising on Facebook and they said the response rate was way more than they expected.

Heck, even I do advertising on Facebook and I'm as small as it gets!

Where do people come up with these silly concepts of who does and doesn't use or advertise on Facebook?

I know, those that don't use it! ;)

[Whitey]

Here's an announcement by Delta where an airline is able to personalise it's approach to consumers by integrating with FB.

[blog.delta.com ] This makes you the first customers in the U.S. have the ability to access your boarding pass on sites like Facebook within 24-hours of your scheduled departure!

More creative thinking coming to the fore .... how do these types of apps and ideas gel/conflict with Google?

[mrguy]

A very simple change Facebook could do right now that would shake up the search world would be to add a box that allows you to search for friend or other stuff.

Right now, it defaults to friends and only provides other listings when there are none, but if you could select a box to search for either or, then users of Facebook would never have to leave.

If that were to happen, it would be interesting to see what that would do to the user base of Google since so many people use Facebook and many of them probably use Google as well.

I'm actually surprised MSN has not sweetened the deal to Facebook to get them to do this.

[Whitey]

An interesting article appeared here on how integrated convergence is taking shape.

A recent study from marketing agency Digital Clarity found that 80% of under-25s used a second screen to communicate with friends while watching TV and 72% used Twitter, Facebook or a mobile app to comment on shows.

Currently it is little more sophisticated than watching TV with one eye on Twitter or Facebook, but that is beginning to change as TV executives start to experiment with greater social networking integration.

In New Zealand, TVNZ has just launched a new youth channel which sees Facebook heavily integrated to create an interactive entertainment and music show.

[bbc.co.uk...]

Two things stand out for me here. One is the competition of time Google versus Facebook . The other is advertising superiority.

More time to air attention, more money to earn over that time and more interactivity to actively engage.