Google Search Share Gains Have flatlined

[drall]

"Google just lost one of its three major growth engines"

"Google still has yet to find another major product to pick up growth where the search business leaves off"

[businessinsider.com...]

Could be the reasoning behind some of the heavy handed changes that have been reported the last few months.

...in the biggest and most important market on earth (responsible for almost half of Google's revenue), Google's share gains have flatlined.

A year ago, Google had 65% of the US search market. Last month, Google had 64.4% of the US search market. This after an amazing decade in which Google gained about a point of share per month.

Most Google bulls expected Google to eventually own considerably more than 65% share of the US search market. As Google's competitors collapsed, it seemed Google would eventually be able to gain the 80%-90% share that Google has in many other countries worldwide. Based on Google's flatlining in the past year, however, this incremental 15-25 point market share gain now seems like wishful thinking.

[lexipixel]

I predict it will lose share as Facebook captures eyeballs, add dollars and improves it's native search to a point where it's viable in that market.

Maybe Facebook even developing a strong Yahoo or Bing search partnership... that would throw a big curve ball at GOOG's numbers.

[grelmar]

Heh, Blodget needs to read his own paper. The day before, BI showed how the 64.4% number is a fudge because of changes Yahoo made that bloat their figures:

[businessinsider.com...]

At first glance, Yahoo appears to be the big winner at Google's expense. But that's mostly because of a new "slideshow" addition to Yahoo's user interface that automatically creates a bunch of search queries when linking pictures together -- hardly the same as an intentional search.

[mattb]

Interesting tidbit in Barron's this week. They feel that Google stock value is undervalued compared to it's competitor's. Google may not gain market share in the near future but search overall is still growing and Google knows how to capitalize on search. For all the talk about Bing growing, we haven't seen it reflected in our PPC campaigns...

[netmeg]

I like Danny Sullivan's take on it. The overall pie grew, so Google's loss is actually a gain.

[J_RaD]

its bound to flatline at some point, the only place to go then is down.

[graeme_p]

They are doing badly, losing a 0.6% share, in a growing market over period in which their key competitors (only real competitor) launched a hugely improved version of their service and spent a huge amount of money advertising it?

Most businesses would give anything to do that badly.

[BillyS]

graeme_p - agree, everyone should have Google's problems.

I've been hearing about the downfall of Google for at least five years now. They dominated search back then, they still dominate. All efforts to close the gap have failed up until now. There is no logical reason to expect that to change. I don't see a major threat on the horizon. In fact, I could argue that based on history Facebook's days are limited.

[maximillianos]

Agree. They can't go up forever. IE hit a peak and is now settling back into a lower market range which it has held for years. I expect G to stay in the 60% share range for many years to come.

[J_RaD]

This also means an earnings flatline, will be interesting to see how they react when this happens.

I'm guessing it will be a classic goog knee jerk.

[drall]

Just thought it was an interesting read.

As to the Facebook comment by BillyS I think you are dead wrong. I watched the myspace /insert 2.0 site here/ craze and something is clearly different with FB.

I highly doubt FB's future is bleak when two of my daughters (4.0 gpa) spend 3 hours a night conversing with an entire high school, sports teams, social events, college recruiters, guidance office, military recruiters, summer job recruiters, friends nationwide, driving schools, family nationwide, handicap support groups, charity groups, civic groups.. all over Facebook.

IMHO FB isnt going anyplace but up.

[StoutFiles]

IMHO FB isnt going anyplace but up.

Facebook has a privacy issue that will start to annoy people, it has already.

A new "Facebook" will come along bringing privacy back and the exclusive nature that Facebook used to have when it was college kids only.

Facebook isn't going to die but it will peak sooner then later.

[secretweapon]

I completely agree with drall. FB is absolutely different in the 2.0 world and is likely to stick around a very long time. It's a multi-generational platform at this point and is replacing standard email among friends and family.

I do not, however, believe that Mother G will lose much to FB.

[Reno]

I expect G to stay in the 60% share range for many years to come

I do not wish the people at Google any ill will -- I'm sure they're decent & hardworking and all that stuff -- but nothing would make me happier than to see them drop down to about 40%, with 2 or 3 other engines getting the rest. The web would be healthier, and many of us would not be so stressed during update/algo days like these, where Google's burps and I get chest pains.

....................

[engine]

Perhaps the key point is the metoric growth is no longer quite so stellar.

As more people come online there will be more users, and that will continue for some time to come.

I won't get too excited until there is a change of 5% or more, up or down.

[Sgt_Kickaxe]

The change is insignificant yet the report is doom, whatever. I shudder to think what that report would say about lesser companies, decomposed slime perhaps?

[Wynne]

I predict it will lose share as Facebook captures eyeballs, add dollars and improves it's native search to a point where it's viable in that market.

Maybe Facebook even developing a strong Yahoo or Bing search partnership... that would throw a big curve ball at GOOG's numbers.

Agreed. I believe that as facebook and Twitter create better search functionality within their platform, that google, bing, and yahoo will suffer. Also I predict Bing to eat more of google's search share.

[lexipixel]

Facebook has a privacy issue that will start to annoy people, it has already.

People do not care about privacy.

Yes, the privacy issue is very disturbing to IT industry people, media people, lawyers, soapbox Senators, etc.. But not average folks.

It's our own fault, (myself and anyone else who has an FB account that contains personal info).

Matt Cutts aside, do you know anyone who left FB in protest?

I went as far as starting a FACEBOOK DATA SHARING should be "OPT IN" not "OPT OUT" group -- it's attracted 104 people... On the other hand, the group "PULL YOU PANTS UP YOU LOOK LIKE A friggin IDIOT" has 1,014,792

The mentality is "keep it light, have fun", so in regards to data being sold, shared, whatever --- people are ambivalent -- they want FB, they don't really want their data mis-used, but as long as they don't think about it, it doesn't bother them -- there is no "nagging resentment", no groundswell of users ready to leave.

I still stand by my prediction -- native FB search is gonna kill off a bunch of GOOG search traffic -- and if they get really good at it, people may have little reason to leave the site for anything, (like AOL users who didn't know there was an "internet" outside of AOL).

[BillyS]

As to the Facebook comment by BillyS I think you are dead wrong.

I could be wrong, it happened once before…

The problem with social media is loyalty, there is none. What made facebook special was the fact it started as an exclusive club. It was cool because you had to be a student to join. Parental units were explicitly excluded.

Now all I hear are 40 and 50 somethings talking about their facebook accounts. Friending people, it's like reliving your college experience except this time around you stand a chance of being popular...

How uncool is that if you're a student? Mom and dad snooping around your account.

I know all my nieces and nephews (college age) are already looking for something new. And once the younger crowd leaves, all the folks going through a mid life crisis will leave too.

It will be interesting to revisit this thread in three year.

[Reno]

People do not care about privacy.

Whenever I see a well written news article that explains FB's privacy issues, I try to email the article to those friends I know who may be receptive:

Five hidden dangers of Facebook [news.cnet.com]

Maybe a few of those people will care.

....................

[AndyA]

Facebook has a privacy issue that will start to annoy people, it has already.

Let's not forget that there are some privacy issues with Google as well, and people aren't exactly thrilled with them, either.

I think Bing will continue to pick up more of the search traffic. I rarely use Google these days, and don't miss it a bit. The other day I was in an office, and over half of the admin assistants there were using Bing as well. It's catching on, people are kicking the Google habit.

[frontpage]

Google Future = Altavista

[Ujang]

In fact, I could argue that based on history Facebook's days are limited.

A meet B: "Yo A add me as friendster's friend will ya?"
B meet C: "Hey B, checkout my page at www.myspace.com/c"
C meet D: "C and B was tagged in a photo"

B Last Login on Friendster: 18 month ago.

Google Future = Altavista

A meet B: I'm Altavista'ing the net for an answer..

[OnlineConnect]

Ok I am reading between the lines here but I thought you guys baby was google?
I must say I am confused but then again can see what you saying
For me I'll go with the flow....... :)

[tedster]

This article seems like a really weak analysis to me. The GAINS have flat-lined? Why should any analyst expect a business to maintain some percentage growth curve?

I think the huge changes we're seeing now have been in the planning for YEARS, not months. And last month, while many here were saying how bad the changes were (even before Mayday), Google was gaining a share in organic search again.

Could Google use another big profit maker? Of course they could. But what they are doing clearly pleases a lot of people around the world. They've got a handle on something that we don't see very clearly because we look at them through webmaster-colored glasses... just as this analyst/writer looks at them through investor-colored glasses.

[internetheaven]

I predict it will lose share as Facebook captures eyeballs

I predict Facebook will collapse shortly after it finally finds a buyer ... you know, like MySpace, Bebo etc. Fads are fads which is bad enough but Facebook is downright criminal and eventually enough people will be aware of that.

Ok I am reading between the lines here but I thought you guys baby was google?

... hmmm ... no, Google is more like a puppy that grew up and bit the hand that feeds it. It grew by being a good organic search engine. Now they've left organic search behind in favour of taking on Microsoft's territory (docs, browsers, os etc.) and pushing more Adwords revenue. Glad to see Microsoft is fighting back by going after organic search.

[Ujang]

To win the race, one should be able to process $$$ in/out globally. Utilize non-employee-human-brain globally. Not just from single/selected country alone.

Big-G lead not because of their Laser-Sharp-Advanced-Search service; it's because Web owner love them. It pour $$$ all around the globe. It hire webmaster/web owner all around the globe (via Adsense). Not to mention Free Adword, Easy Publisher singup, Advance Analytic+Webmastering tools - which back then boost their Search relevancy.

And if that not the case, suppose we shouldn't hear such a phrase like 'Build For Adsense Websites'


JIMHO

[Brett_Tabke]

I take alot of this with a grain-of-salt. The numbers are pretty suspect. I look at Twitter and realize they have a ton of traffic that is in the api by clients. Those numbers don't show up in web statistics. There are dozens of ways that numbers flowing in and out of Google could be adjusted from month-to-month and feature-to-feature. It could also mean Google is getting better and people don't have to spend as much time searching as they used too. What used to take 10-15 searches, now only takes 5.

I would like to see a look at "uniques" on a graph. "searches" is like counting page views. Sure, we do 500k views here a day, but only 150k uniques. We can do alot to manipulate that page view, but we can do little to influence that 'unique' stat.

[cien]

Regarding Facebook, there is something about that boy, Mark... I can read "I will own you and the world no matter what". He instills fear. :) Now he has his tentacles all over the web with the "Like" button. I would not be surprised if they enter the search arena soon. Hope they do.

About the privacy issues with Facebook, I seriously doubt 99% of their users have a clue that's an issue or that it is even discussed on the web. They just don't care. That is just forced news.

Myspace was a joke.

[doughayman]

The best thing in the world that can happen, is that Facebook (and others) steal market share away from Google. This will force more competition, which will be good for the industry at large. It is never good to have a monopoly in any industry; having one creates complacency and lethargy from the kingpin, which we have all seen in recent years. This is all good news for everyone, IMO.