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I am curious on some search engine predictions for this upcoming year? Any thoughts?
[webmasterworld.com...]
1. (will not name this SE) - 30.9%
2. Google - 20.7%
3. country-specific SE #1 - 17.7%
4. country-specific SE #2 - 17.0%
5. Yahoo! - 8.4%
6. AOL - 1.4%
(also, Overture, Netscape, Altavista, AlltheWeb, all < 1%).
Lately, big G was acting more like little "g". Bringing a fairly good amount of crappy SERPs, full of garbage, blogs and commercial results. Clearly typical pre-IPO, pump-and-dump, revenue oriented acting. Such a shame. Still, a 20% of all SE referrers is a good mark.
I would suggest non-commercial and small-budget folks start looking at promoting on other SEs. Googling became too expensive, IMHO.
Thanks to this forum for making people think Google is IT. Because of this tunnel vision, I enjoy a very good traffic from other SEs. Cheers :)
I'm expecting the new SE Big 3 (US) to account for roughly 25% apiece. What will be fun will be watching all the webmasters wishing for the "good ol' days" when they only had to worry about G.
What will be fun will be watching all the webmasters wishing for the "good ol' days" when they only had to worry about G.
So true ... we've had it quite good for some time now, haven't we?
Predictions? By the end of 2004 Google will continue to be recognized by the public as the best SE out there, but as Y tweaks its new algorithmic search throughout the year and as MSFT debuts its own, those two will make dents in G's dominance. The problem I see for both Y and MSFT is that neither has been very subtle about how they monetize search results, and I think that will continue to turn people off. G, in my opinion, does a better job of separating the money-making aspects of search and gains more user trust in the process. Can Y and MSFT put the brakes on their constant effort to convert searchers into paying customers for their other services? I doubt it. Then again, after the IPO, G might end up looking much more like those guys than they do now.
I'm expecting the new SE Big 3 (US) to account for roughly 25% apiece.
For me its pure Google 60%, Yahoo 20% and MSN 10%, most of the rest being Google partners. I do roughly the same on Google and pure Ink, so if Yahoo goes with current Ink (unlikely, IMHO) I should see no real change until MSN starts its own service.
If Yahoo goes with a radically different Ink/AV/ATW combo there is no way to predict what will happen.
What is inevitably coming, is Microsoft attempting to get some share of the market, and Yahoo trying to get their multi-billion-dollar market share back. It may be futile for big G to wait for sleeping giants to turn aroung and come up with viable competing packages. Heck, I would not want to sit at sidelines waiting for MS and Yahoo! to make a move.
Therefore, big G needs a multi-billion-dollar IPO, which will happen soon. It could use money in competition with MSN and Y! (and we all know that you stand no chance competing against M$ if you don't have a few billion $ in the bank). Therefore, right now G is forced to concentrate on looking best for the underwriters (UW) and general public, as UWs are about to sell a bunch of paper for tens of billions of dollars. Who cares about Joe surfer at this point?!
Anyway, for Y! and MSN this is a point of truth, the larger market share they can steal while big G is playing Wallstreet game, the better they will be off.
My prediction - by the end of the 2004:
Google - 50% of all searches
MSN - 20%
Yahoo (and Co.) - 20%
Yahoo partnering with SBC and marketing broadband services, was an extremely insightful marketing strategy. Yesterday, I saw co-branded Yahoo ads with Hotjobs during the NFL playoff games...
If you want to run with the big boys, you better learn the "playing field".. Just being cool and trendy, doesn't last long in the "real world"..
AOL is getting ready to dump huge $'s on Superbowl ads for dial up services (they are even sponsoring the half time show)., touting their accelerator. Why? Because they can't seem to figure out how to convert their dial up user's to broadband, so they figure they better try and salvage what's left of their dial up user base? The point is, they understand what it means to advertise, even if they are targeting the wrong product mix.
G has the $'s to advertise NOW, they don't have to wait for an IPO. They have counted on "grass roots", and distribution partners for branding. Time to step up to the plate, as the IPO should have happened a year ago.
Yahoo get's a "free ride" with Inktomi on MSN.. I doubt MSN will make a switch, until they put their own engine in place. And if they have the same delays that they experience with their operating systems, 2005 may not be the year they make it happen..
[edited by: redzone at 10:47 pm (utc) on Jan. 19, 2004]
CompWorld
Not sure what you mean by that. Longhorn is a new version of XP, how is it related to SEs? The WinFS file system will only do local searches, as far as I understand. Unless they'll integrate MSN search technology into every desktop...hmm, which may be not a bad idea at all.
Intriguing possibilities.
That is exactly what Bill Gates publicly mentioned. With the release of Longhorn, MS expects to turn the search industry upside down..
They own almost 100% of the browser market, because of their dominance of operating systems in the "consumer" market. There is a reason that the pre-programmed start page for IE on every desktop shipped with Windows (whatever version), is MSN.com? :)
Rumors about Longhorn and beefed up integrated browser interfaces are widespread. MS believes in "pure" monopoly as the road to success, and will leverage any angle, to achieve it.
AOL tried to lock their consumer base into their seach product at the navigation level, MS will try to do it at the operating system level.
In fact, #3 is exactly what Yahoo! didn't do 3-4 years back when it had all this overinflated stock...
It seems that MSN and Yahoo! have opened up their cards, at least to a point where they indicate that they want a (large) piece of the pie. How would G counter?
So if the way to go is to partner with a broadband/content provider, then:
* AOL has Time Warner...actually, other way around :)
* Yahoo! is partnering with SBC
* MS will take over desktop searches
what does G have left? Verizon, AT&T, Bell South, Comcast, Qwest or Cox - is that it?
martinibuster - is IAC a former US Interactive?
If Games has his way (which he usually does in the beginning), MSN will out pace both Google and Yahoo within the next couple of years. The only way to stop MSN is via the DOJ or EU. Which eventually Gates works out to save the company and move on. Everything is so corporate these days. I miss the simpler days.
CompWorld
USA Interactive was owned by Vivendi, but was sold to CBS/Viacom last year.
With great respect for your opinion, you have your facts mixed up. IAC owned 6.9% [telecomweb.com] of Vivendi.
It's the other way around.
Who is Barry Diller and IAC?
Barry Diller and IAC owns:
Home Shopping Network
Expedia
Hotwire.com
Lending Tree
Hotels.com
Ticketmaster
Evite
Match.com
CitySearch
Plus he serves on the board of The Washington Post.
According to their website,
The goal of IAC is to be the world's largest and most profitable interactive commerce company by pursuing a multi-brand strategy.
Cnn Money declared IAC The Company of the Year, and had this to say [money.cnn.com].
Under Barry Diller's masterful hand, InterActiveCorp (IACI: Research, Estimates) quietly became an even bigger online player in 2003...If Diller's quest continues at its current success rate, his company's dominance in online content could one day rival Microsoft's in operating systems.
Barry Diller is bigger than Vivendi and possibly equal to or bigger than Google.
Some type of partnership between G & IAC is indeed interesting...
It would immediately give G some much needed services in some of the most horizontal markets on the web. Automotive and employment are a couple of other's that seem natural.
It would give G portal power without becoming the portal they so publicly claim, they don't want to become...
Not sure how it would be configured, but knowing G, they have the creative initiative to find the fit.
Some type of partnership between G & IAC is indeed interesting...
If you are a WW subscriber then you will know about the debate about Google's position in the industry as relates to mindshare.
Mindshare is what makes you reach for a Band-Aid instead of a bandage. It's what makes you wipe your nose with a Kleenex instead of a tissue.
It's what makes you Google something instead of Search.
Mindshare is branding. If you lose your mindshare you are left with nothing.
Yahoo and MSN have subscribers to LOCK IN their audience. Google's audience is NOT locked in. That's probably why they purchased blogger, in order to "lock in" a certain demographic. That's why they wanted Friendster. It's a lock- you need to register.
Right now Google's position is pure mindshare. They are changing that. Google recently announced [boston.com] (thanks DG for finding that one) that they are moving into email. By moving into email they can "lock in" eyeballs. They can lock in a user base. This is very important. An interesting move on Google's part, very exciting.
Offering its own branded e-mail -- whether for free or with enhanced services like spam filtering -- would also enable Google to tie users more closely to its search site and to steal customers from rivals, they said.
We've been talking about this in the supporters forum for awhile, a bit before Google made their move. If this is the type of info that interests you, then the Supporter's Forum is the place for you.
This kind of stuff can't be posted on the outside because it often gets buried under all the people asking who is the best webhost or why is their website doing so badly, etc. Sorry, but the good stuff gets buried in the noise.
Said with great affection for the membership. :) Y
So if all this put together, the great minds say that beyond a year or two there will be a need to market for at least MSN and Yahoo along with big G.
And then there will be one more open-source (cool, hip, whatever the buzz word of the day) SE (Nutch.org, anyone?) that will do it better, and the cycle will begin again.
MBNA
Noone could possibly quess that in a mature industry there could possibly a company that will grow this big this fast. It only appeared on the radar screen in some 1995, and now the largest Credit Card issuer in US.
There will be another Google, and possibly as close as 3-5 years from now - IMHO
Just curious. :)
