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But this paying business is getting out of control surely. PAy for spider, click, impression or review or anything they come up with next. Im guessing that to have a page ranking sort-of-seriously in the SERPS that count, you would be paying around $500 to 1,000 over annually. And that is one page.
It seems that every week another SE launches another pay scheme.
Just how long can this be maintained? Surely not all advertising on the Web since the ad market went bad for on page banner ads etc. has gone to SE marketing or has it?
And how long can advertisers maintain this sort of spend?
To say nothing of the gradual slide in exposure of non-commercial and individual sites that make the Web the Web? which may well reduce usage.
We are sitting OK at the moment with a very limited ad spend thanks to a long history in web age terms, and the incoming links. But we are also seriously using non-internet based promotion now.. because its cheaper (plus the signs are becoming more evident it's more effective too in many cases)! We used it a lot on the early days and it seems the circle has turned right around.
I also read that many companies are now not bothering to update sites, and not starting new ones, simply becuase there is a limit to what a web site can do for a company. To us it may seem foolish, but to others it's just a matter of economics. Ad spend and promotion dollars now seem to be spent increasingly elsewhere.
Im thinking the market may just bust soon, like the banner ad market, leading to a mini-follow-up-dot-com-bust - search engine driven. People are starting to get savvy on how bad some SE's and are looking for alternatives. They just dont deliver in the majority of cases.
What do others think?
Now that we have that settled, why do sites continue to run banners? They wouldn't if they weren't locked in the death grip of exclusive contracts. Some are starting to bite the bullet and break those exclusive contracts - even at the loss of 30-50% of their outstanding sales for the last 120 days.
Where do se's fit in that scheme? Pretty high actually. It obvious to me, that graphical advertising is almost history. Animated gifs, popups, popunders, interstatials, flash, and even tricky javascripts are killing some sites cold.
Those sites that are running text based advertising - such as that from affiliate programs [webmasterworld.com] are having some success (an affiliate program by any other name is still an advertising program). So no, not all advertising has gone to the se's.
In that environment, advertising se's fit in perfectly. I was surprised at some of the coverage Google got over the new AdSelect program. They were both privy to some good comments, and some like the USA today article, were just confused reporters who didn't have a clue what the program really was. In that sense, Google was a victim of the other engines rush to advertising schemes.
It will be interesting to see if Google can do as they say they are going to do. They mention media in their integrity/mission statement [webmasterworld.com], yet everyone knows if you want good press, you go buy some banner ads on the big magazine sites or in the trade rags. Will Google be able to hold out against that powerful motivator? Only time will tell. We've seen bigger waffles on the net before (eg: free lifetime email).
>And how long can advertisers maintain this sort of spend?
It is indefinitely as long as the roi holds. The problem will sort itself out as cpc rates continue to rise.
> non-commercial and individual sites
> that make the Web the Web?
That happened long ago. When is the last time you remember a fun site on GeoCities or Tripod coming up on Google, Alta, or Fast? They've been buried.
I think this is part of the reason WebLogs and Forum sites have exploded in the last two years. People are looking for that fun site, a personal touch, and someone to stand behind it. They go to the blogs and forums for a fix they aren't getting from the mathematical steely cold search engines.
I also read that many companies are now not bothering to update sites, and not starting new ones, simply because there is a limit to what a web site can do for a company.
Yep. What's the point if the roi isn't there? There is a whole segment of the web that is dying. Not the dot com busters we've heard about, but that 2nd and 3rd tier site. There were some gems in there that you don't hear about much any more. They can't get the se traffic to support them so they are turning in the keys. A couple of months ago was the first time ever that .com registrations went down. That trend is going to continue unabated for some time.
All is not lost. I was just talking with some people the other day about how things were appearing to pick back up on the web. Ecomm sites I know are increasing sales over last year at a much higher rate than before. This is great news.
We are right on the edge of a mini-comeback for the web. As that happens, and now that hardware costs are a fraction of what they were just a few years ago, I think we could see some new search engines pop up again. Who would have thought WiseNut or Teoma would show up last year?
I don't think people are appreciating what has happened on the hardware end of things. The amount of system you can put together for even $5k today is amazing. You can run a top notch heavy duty string of sites off such a box today. That would have been 50 or 100k just a few years ago.
As that happens, the vc's are going to take another look. I bet we hear a great deal about vc money the rest of this year. They are out there actively looking for site to invest in. This time they are wiser and more appreciative of the risks. That could lead to more search engines. Call it Google envy, or whatever - there are those taking a hard look at that very model as we speak.
We may differ a bit on search engines particpation in this comeback. Yes teoma and wisenut came out of nowhere, but teoma has already been bought out and accepting paid listings, and wisenut?? maybe beachboy knows something let's see..
But people are getting dissaptisfied with their Web experience and their SERPS. Agree wholehertedly that new media such as weblogs are providing a freshness and fun aspect that was draining from the Web, and was one reason while many people signed up. I think peope are looking for alternative ways to find content (because that is the business Search engines are in.. like transport was for railways). As you know as a fellow enthusiast, blogdex and daypop provide alternative ways to do this, even though we can probably call them SE's still.
Focus 0 becuase that is what the web is good at.
My original point - that there is just not enough business for search engines to survive remains to me at least. The broad based engine industry are in for a shake out. Personality and credible portals which get a name among their own niche may well start driving the web...
Decentralization - I think thats the way things will pan out, and coporate customers will re-experience the web as the morass we are in gets sorted out.
