Where will AOL, MSN land?

Without INK, where do they turn?

[Eric_Lander]

There's been a bit of news surrounding Inktomi recently, and those sources have been listed within a previous thread. For continuity's sake, I will list them again here.

Inktomi Web Cast for Qtr. 2 - 2002 [inktomi.com]

Analyst: No a lot of reasons to be optimistic on INKT (Audio Feed)
[biz.yahoo.com]

ONtheMove: Inktomi plunges after warning (Streming Video) [biz.yahoo.com]

In a nutshell, Ink claims that it has not yet secured any "significant" deals as it has come to rely on financially, for over two and a half years.

I do not want to start this thread off on the wrong foot. What I am concerned about though, is what would happen if AOL and MSN were to shy away from using Inktomi in the future for providing search engine results. The way I see it, it is not exactly that far fetched.

First of all, lets look at AOL. As stated in the above provided URL's of Ink news, AOL is looking to lessen the amount of money it spends as time goes on throughout 2002 and possibly beyond. Knowing this, it would make sense that they could look to get rid of INK results to save some money. After all, they have recently (seemingly) decreased the use of ODP within their SERPs, maybe this is the next step? Of course, they have Overture to fall back on.

And MSN, has used Looksmart for it's primary listings, then about 100 listings down, seeks the help of Ink. Knowing that they have used L$ so much before, who's to say they will not continue to do so? After all, it seems logical to me, if I were MSN, to seek out more solidified partnerships with L$ and retain a percentage of clickthroughs.

All in all, I want to know what you all think. If INK stops providing any results for AOL and MSN - which *could* happen... Where do you think AOL and MSN would turn to?

Thanks!

[MarkHutch]

Maybe this has been coved before, but WHY doesn't Microsoft and AOL create their own search engines? Certainly not because they can't afford it.

[Macguru]

My preferences are:

Teoma
Fast
Google

But this isn't going to happend right?

[Eric_Lander]

I see Teoma as an option as well, especially for AOL. Reason being, it is a PPI engine now, and is claimed to be a Google competitor.

We all know that Google is a traffic-powerhouse. And, if AOL (or MSN for that matter) were to help utilize and promote a growing engine with the technological abilities to equal Google's index - things start to really come together. I'm sure that Ask/Teoma would be able to provide results to AOL for a fairly priced discount, considering their position and youth.

[john316]

I would like to see AOL use Gigablast.

Sorry, I just can't get excited over Teoma, it is PFI..and will probably begin to look more and more like the original mysimon concept everyday.

At what point do you stop being a search engine and become a database of paid advertisers?

[Eric_Lander]

Maybe this has been coved before, but WHY doesn't Microsoft and AOL create their own search engines? Certainly not because they can't afford it.

Well, more than anything else - they're trying to save money, not spend it.

[agerhart]

>>>At what point do you stop being a search engine and become a database of paid advertisers?

This is the way things have been going for awhile now. Think about it, what major search engine doesn't offer (read: require) paid submission or spidering? Google.

[john316]

<<Think about it, what major search engine doesn't offer (read: require) paid submission or spidering? Google. <<

Think about it, what major search engine is a *really* successful search engine? Google.

[Eric_Lander]

agerhart, john316 - I think there is a distinctive difference between search engines, and search portals.

Search engines are good for the casual seeker. Portals though cater not to that casual audience, but the audience that simply doesn't know any better. In other words, MSN and AOL are quite different, and I think they also have a distinct need to include informative and commercialized results. So many small businesses, corportation, and their respective 'net access provider clients jsut don't know that an engine is there. They just hit the search button and *want* to get results.

In any event, I don't think that GigaBlast is well positioned to become a hitter in any market of significant value at this time. In a year or two, sure, but then, the game is much different.

[DrCool]

Portals though cater not to that casual audience, but the audience that simply doesn't know any better

I agree with Eric 100%. I believe that the majority of people don't know or don't care where the results come from. They aren't aware that nearly every engine or portal has Overture results or don't know what a "sponsored listing" is. I am not just talking about Grandma Edna who just got her first computer that is preloaded with AOL. I have a friend of mine who is a programmmer for a computer game company and spends many hours per week on the Internet. I mentioned Goto/Overture to him and he had no idea what I was talking about.

Back to Eric's original questions, If MSN and AOL leave Inktomi I think MSN would go with a combiniation of Looksmart/Wisenut. With Looksmarts new ppc plan it would make sense on MSN's part. I could see AOL partnering up with FAST or an Ask Jeeves/Teoma hybrid. I don't think either will partner with Google.

[Brad]

If I had to go looking for a replacement for INK I would look to:

Teoma
FAST
Wisenut

Gigablast would have to be well out of beta and have the money for some heavy duty servers.

I thought AOL didn't want anybody leaving AOL's private little AOL-Land that they have carved out of the Web. I thought that is why they provide such pitiful search. (Okay, I like the ODP part of it.)

I always expected AOL to just consolidate everything to Netscape search.

[Son_House]

but WHY doesn't Microsoft and AOL create their own search engines?

AOL owned it's own se at one time, it was called WebCrawler. They sold it to Excite in '98.

AOL and MSN would more than likely go with whoever has the best deal for their bottom line. As we all know, AOL and MSN do not provide the best serp's. It's all about $$$

[Lisa]

WHY doesn't Microsoft and AOL create their own search engines?

If I remember Microsoft started creating one back in the late 90's but they scrapped it when the partnerships appeared.

I think they make more money with a partnership then they do by creating their own. This way they can completely change their provider if they find a better one. Sounds good to me!

[markd]

I agree with many of Eric's points, but I think that the 'average' client searcher will know what Overture etc. is when they get the same results across the board when they search for a particular term.

This may take a year, and I don't know what the outcome on the SE landscape will be, but prior to the Overture 'takeover' people used one or two SE's because they liked their SERPS. This may be because of variety, quirkyness or even that they delivered the 'usual suspects' in the form of the big players.

I am no particular fan of Ink's PFI, but at least it does present a challenge when the results are syndicated to partners (and therefore provides different results across engines).

IMHO to have 'blanket' Overture or Teoma PFI results will lead to a decreasing use of search engines, or portals which search capapbilities very, very soon.

Maybe the future consumer markets is more localised results (as they can find exactly the same 'national' results in Yellow pages or printed media) and for B2B specialised, niche search facilities serving a particular sector?

I could sell this to clients, but I am finding it increasingly difficult to sell 'intelligent' SE positioning as against the concept of paying just to be in just 'another business directory'.