Predict visitor numbers with adwords keyword tool

Too much coffee?

[ildarius]

Has anyone ever tried figuring out what the 'monthly search volume' numbers represent in Adwords?
For example a search volume of 0.6 would mean how many actual monthly searches?
Here is a theory:

For example the monthly searches for the word 'widget' in Overtures tool gives 2,400 searches. Double of that amount would be roughly the Google's monthly searches for 'Widget' which is 4,800.

Now you take that number and compare it with the Adwords tools'
"monthly search estimates" (ex.: 0.6)
If you do it for a large amount of Keywords may be you can actually determine what those Adwords' numbers mean.
Make sense, right?...

(took me 20 minutes to formulate this theory in the most comprehensible way, hope someone answers)

[Receptional Andy]

I believe the major problem with the monthly estimates is that they're in bands, and so there is is a huge range of numbers for each extra notch in the chart (like the green PR bar!).

Perhaps better is the 'Traffic Estimator' tool which will give you a click estimate, but the numbers from that are often very different from real world traffic.

Is there a particular reason you want to use Adwords to get this information?

[ildarius]

Hi, thank you for your response.
I am actually using both tools in adwords.
Right now i'm just looking around for the best tool because overture
never works (time for a captcha?).