Welcome to WebmasterWorld Guest from 50.19.0.90

Forum Moderators: open

Message Too Old, No Replies

WordTracker Prediction Accuracy

Is is useful at all?

     
10:50 am on Jan 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Junior Member

10+ Year Member

joined:Apr 11, 2002
posts:113
votes: 0


I've been using Word Tracker for a long time on and off, but I can't really say I've ever had what you might call success with it.

You find the phrases, make the pages, buy the ads and wait. Nothing.

So recently, I decide to get rigorous on it's @ss.
I used Wordtracker to find a high-scoring five-word phrase with a KEI of 900. WT predicted 18 searches a day.

Then I made a page and a GoogleAd for that phrase. I used:
1. All languages
2. All countries
3. All match types
4. Made sure the ad was on page 1

- I think that this means that my ad will now count all impressions at Google. Anyone disagree?

OK - if it does, then I am all set to measure the Real-World accuracy of WT's prediction. Conclusion? WT was entirely and completely wrong. NOT ONE SINGLE HIT in 10 days or so. 180 hits missing.

Statistical fluke? I tried it with another phrase in a completely unrelated business sector. Same answer. The predicted traffic is simply not present.

So - what can I conclude?

Are my sample sizes too small to be statistically sifnificant?
IS this bad luck, and the 2 phrases I chose are SPAMed?
Does this stuff happen all the time?
Am I mis-using WT?
Is WT actually useful?
What are your experiences?

Any feedback is welcome. [ducks]

Interestingly, I asked WT support if they had any numbers for the statistical accuracy of their predictions, and they say they have not had the time to do this work. Since prediction accuravy is pretty much what they are selling, and they've been around for years, I was very surprised to hear that.

11:59 am on Jan 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Senior Member

WebmasterWorld Senior Member beedeedubbleu is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member

joined:Feb 3, 2004
posts:6099
votes: 6


Then I made a page and a GoogleAd for that phrase.

You made a GoogleAd? I am not sure what you mean by this.

9:27 pm on Jan 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

Senior Member

WebmasterWorld Senior Member essex_boy is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member

joined:May 19, 2003
posts:3171
votes: 2


You know what he means!

Its a bit of an odd system ive used it for around 3 years and have found with the lower figures its way wide of the mark.

8:07 pm on Jan 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

New User

5+ Year Member

joined:Nov 14, 2006
posts:16
votes: 0


What you discovered is common. I wasted a lot of time writing content with keywords no one ever searches for. The testing you are doing is the only way you can really tell which long phrases are good.
7:48 pm on Jan 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

New User

5+ Year Member

joined:Nov 24, 2006
posts:9
votes: 0


You really can't do any a/b split testing with only the A test ;-)

If you're really trying to do some research - dig in more and attempt a wider test and then measure your results in a few weeks.

 

Join The Conversation

Moderators and Top Contributors

Hot Threads This Week

Featured Threads

Free SEO Tools

Hire Expert Members