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March 2008: Bottom Dropped Out of eCPM?

First day of New Month, and Something Crashed

     
6:38 am on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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First day of the new month, and something crashed.

-- Lowest eCPM in 2.5 years
-- About 50% below normal lows for last 12 month range
-- Volume about normal
-- CTR about 66% of normal (last 12 mos)
-- double whammy: poor ads/no clicks & poor ads/no value

I know, I know. Its only one day. What, me worry?

8:27 am on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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same here. of course me worry!

but someone's going to say they're experiencing the highest earnings ever.

9:01 am on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Not to me. Yesterday was a good day for a Saturday. It was like a typical week’s day
10:04 am on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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having a gaming site saturday is supposed to be the best day of the week because more traffic = more click .. but today ... D: earning is among one of the lowest earning day compare to the mostly suffered Feb earnings ...
3:15 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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On my site, yesterday's eCPM was higher than for most days in February, and EPC was in the same ballpark.

Still, one day doth not a month make.

4:01 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Since i had changed my html codings my ecpm has remained above 3-4 x fold what it was before, i think this is a case of your advertisers and your content.
4:09 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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The only thing I have to say about weekends is: I hate them because traffic is so low and it means i earn much less than a week day.

Stupid weekends.

RJ

4:14 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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I wish there were more Saturdays and Sundays!

Or maybe the four day work week!

4:27 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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One of my best Saturday's ever in terms of dollars and the second best in terms of eCPM.
4:37 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Best weekend ever. Never seen such high average pay per clicks. I hope it will last.
11:56 pm on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

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One day is not a trend and is statistically insignificant.

One week is not a trend and is also statistically insignificant.

One month, now that's getting close to being a trend.

12:12 am on Mar 3, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Earnings continuing good here in new month. Feb was highest income in 17 months.
12:21 am on Mar 3, 2008 (gmt 0)

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So far so good for March. It's way too early to predict anything but yesterday was my best day in a long time. Today is looking as good as yesterday in terms of CPM & earnings. Just wish I knew what happened. My largest site's CPM was up 31% yesterday over February's average. Today's CPM is better but the day's not done so I'm not figuring that # out.

Try asking again in about two weeks LOL

FYI February's income was good but not the best ever like others have reported. It would be in the top 5 month's earnings since joining AdSense back in 03/04 (can't remember which year it came out offhand LOL).

10:13 am on Mar 3, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Whatever has changed for me is very impressive:-)

Two days of October's Pre-Glitch metrics, EPC, CTR and eCPM all seemingly back to "normal". I wonder how long this will last?

I have to report that this has been a trend since the beginning of 2008 with steadily improving metrics with only the occasional low offset by an unusual high a couple of times.

My metrics have been their most stable in many months and considering I was all prepared to dump AdSense that's very pleasing.

11:25 pm on Mar 3, 2008 (gmt 0)

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It turned out to be only a one-day implosion for me. 24 hours later: back to normal.

Not a significant event.

12:26 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Yesterday was incredible! WOW! Today is back to same old...
12:31 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Is this the thread where every time your earnings are higher than the previous day's, or lower than the previous day's, you let everyone know?
12:46 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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c'mon, jomaxx.
I had a day 'way out of normal ranges and gave in to the temptation to post/whine. So I'm a little embarassed about it.
1:03 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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1st of March was a super low day for me as well - eCPM about 1/3 of normal, and about 25% lower page impressions to boot. The lowest paying day I'd had in several months.

2nd of March was the Highest paying day ever! eCPM about 25% over normal, page impression about 30% over normal.

I've seen google volatility, but worst day in months back to back with the best day ever?

I am sure it was just the variance in how they adjust things.

Chris

1:10 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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I'd hve to agree something went on March 1, although ours was pretty good. In fact talking of long-term trends, it's pretty interesting, that our Jan and Feb got progressively better, PPC-wise. What's even more interesting, is that what I perceive to have been a smart-pricing or penalty started LAST January and got progressively worse through LAST March when it pretty much hit bottom. Now, EXACTLY 1 year later it seems to be reversing the trend and possibly un-smartpricing us in exactly reverse fashion. In other words, in illustrative numbers Dec '06 = 100, Jan '07 = 90 (-10 pts), Feb '07 = 75 (-25 points overall from Dec '06), Mar '07 = 45 (-55 pts overall), Jan '08 = 55 (+10 pts), Feb '08 = 70 (+25 pts), Mar '08 hopefully back up by +55 pts or Dec '06 level. At least the way it's looking it's headed that way, we'll see. Perhaps this is some hope for those that are somehow penalized that perhaps the penalties have a built in time limit (i.e. 1 year in this case) or somehow periodally reviewed.... or just total conjecture.
1:22 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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March-3 was really incredible, a 25% more clicks, and I am not talking about getting 200 clicks instead of 160 - more like 4000 instead of 3200.
1:45 am on Mar 4, 2008 (gmt 0)

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From a USA marketing point of view, it should have been horrible.

We had the first day of the month and it was Saturday. That is a double whammy.

But, from a web point of view, it is preferred to have the 1st of the month on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday, so those of us who have known how ecommerce works for many years, don't complain.

Those days are slow anyway, so let the 1st fall on one, preferrable Friday, so there is plenty of time to get the brick and mortar shopping out of their system, so they are ready on Monday to come back to us.

If the first falls on Monday, we loose big time. They will shop on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday at brick and mortars before they settled down, then we have only two days before Friday, Saturaday and Sunday is back for the normal weekend slow down.

From a brick and mortar point of view, having the first on Saturday was a trifecta. Government paychecks and checks to those on federal social services were issued on Friday because the 1st was a Saturday, normal persons with paydays of Thursday night and Friday were ready to shop as usual and Saturday is the single biggest shopping day of the week for the working Joe and Jane. It was a Bonanza for the brick and mortars, shopping malls and supermarkets were jam packed.

Anyone who did well on the web should be surprised, really shocked.

Historically, I have found that when the 1st falls early in the week, I don't do well until about the 7th. This is also when I see cpc increased back to a normal level. eCommerce companies don't increase their bid until then, when shoppers are back in front of their monitors.

It was about 5pm on Saturday March 1st, when I remarked to my husband, "Damn, were doing excellent today for a Saturday 1st". He agreed. That tells you how my day went. I have no explanation for it other than bad weather in northern states. That always inhibits brick and mortar shopping to some degree.

Weather had been horrible today for a wide reange of states . . . I had been rocking all day until Adsense went down, stellar revenue. I attribute that high 4th of the month earnings to the fact, people got all that brick and mortar shopping out of their system on the weekend, as expect, combined with the wide range of horrible weather in a wide range of states today. It was a perfect combination.

12:39 am on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Jane, Thank you for that post.

Never thought about the 1st-of-the-month syndrome.

6:32 am on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Too many clicks for 1 cent are lowering revenues this month. Worst results since ever.
2:31 pm on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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The ads Google has been putting on my site are horrible and I'm tired of chasing down arbs and MFAs all the time, so my eCPM and earnings are really bad and I don't really care.

Was reading an article on Web Pro News that google actually sacrificed clicks via their changes in the clickable area to increase advertiser ROI.

Since I can see that Google obviously favors two groups: their SERPs pages, and, advertisers, over the publisher (me), it doesn't really make much sense for me to fine tune or commit my sites to AS in any manner.

Some here may disagree, but for some, it just doesn't produce tangible results on a productivity basis, ie, more quality pages with AS should increase earnings. It hasn't and I've moved away from AS and a making 5-10X the money selling ad space myself. Sure it's more work, but I am in complete control. Buh-bye, Google.

2:56 pm on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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March got off to a bad start but some time yesterday ECPM rebounded in a big way and appears to be holding steady. February was one of my best months in the past 7 or 8. I'm still so far off 2007 levels it's not even funny and I'm not even going to talk about 2006 because I don't think I'll ever see those numbers again.

It's a roller coaster, people. Buckle up and hang on. Either that or get off the next time it stops. All this continual analyzation over the last 2 years has only proven one thing to me. It can't be analyzed.

3:07 pm on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Since I can see that Google obviously favors two groups: their SERPs pages, and, advertisers, over the publisher...

Not sure I follow you Rick. Are you saying that pages that come up high in SERPS get good ads and good prices? I'm afraid I have to disagree. I OWN several prominent keywords and keyword phrases in my nich and have since 2003. I certainly haven't gotten any favored treatment. In fact I've come very close to removing adsense entirely.

If you mean sponsored ads displayed on the search result pages.. well, I guess I don't have any way of testing this.

Maybe I've misunderstood you. Yes, they favor advertisers. Advertisers are spending the money. Who would you favor given the choice?

Was reading an article on Web Pro News that google actually sacrificed clicks via their changes in the clickable area to increase advertiser ROI.

An extremely smart move in my opinion.

6:07 pm on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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In fact I've come very close to removing adsense entirely.

Me too. Selling links and ads by yourself might be a better solution.

10:23 pm on Mar 5, 2008 (gmt 0)

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All this continual analyzation over the last 2 years has only proven one thing to me. It can't be analyzed.

yes.

5:36 am on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

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I've moved away from AS and a making 5-10X the money selling ad space myself.

Then why post in an AdSense thread if you no longer use AdSense?

[edited by: encyclo at 5:45 pm (utc) on Mar. 22, 2008]

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