Forum Moderators: martinibuster

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March 2008: Bottom Dropped Out of eCPM?

First day of New Month, and Something Crashed

         

dibbern2

6:38 am on Mar 2, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



First day of the new month, and something crashed.

-- Lowest eCPM in 2.5 years
-- About 50% below normal lows for last 12 month range
-- Volume about normal
-- CTR about 66% of normal (last 12 mos)
-- double whammy: poor ads/no clicks & poor ads/no value

I know, I know. Its only one day. What, me worry?

martinibuster

5:48 am on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



...more quality pages with AS should increase earnings.

Sorry Charlie, Google don't want tunas with good taste. Google wants tuna that tastes good. [youtube.com]

What I would like to have explained, once and for all, what do people mean when they say "quality" and how does that help an advertiser sell more widgets?

wyweb

6:11 am on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)



martinibuster... you nut...

I just want some mayo with my tuna....

andrewshim

7:18 am on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I just want some mayo with my tuna....

or more ads that are in 'tuna' with my content.

incrediBILL

4:46 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



What I would like to have explained, once and for all, what do people mean when they say "quality" and how does that help an advertiser sell more widgets?

By definition would Google search results page be deemed "quality" content?

Not really, a bunch of snippets, but it's quality comes from what it enables the visitor to do which is find sites on topics they want and ads running on those pages sell tons of stuff.

Therefore, quality IMO what the site helps the visitor achieve and the more productive the site, the more likely the advertisers will get the right customers and the best ROI.

Then again, scrapers have proved many times that you can make a fortune spamming the SEs with 100% gibberish crap because the only thing on the page that makes any sense whatsoever are the advertisements, therefore the scraper site has a "quality" that makes visitors use the ads as an escape mechanism.

Quality is obviously a subjective term at best ;)

[edited by: martinibuster at 5:39 pm (utc) on Mar. 6, 2008]

walrus

4:54 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Pretty funny actually that adults still act like high schoolers.

It is a drag people just can't be kind or be quiet. Everyone comes to this forum for help or to share. Some are no doubt smarter , some are more friendly and eager to offer advice than others. Everyone should be more tolerant of each others shortcomings whether intellectual or social. They may have been a little rude but it won't help trying to oneup them by calling anyone names.
From what i see, the older i get the more i realize we will all still be kids when we die.
Cmon folks, shake hands and get back to sharing and helping each other again.

martinibuster

5:19 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Bill, that's a great definition of quality, although as you say, it's subjective. Smartpricing etc. creates a mystery definition of what quality is, leaving us guessing.

Are we tuna with good taste or are we tuna that tastes good? How do we know which one we are, in the absence of a solid definition?

Here are some more questions:

  • If your site earns little compared to your traffic, does that mean your tuna doesn't taste good?

  • If the bottom drops out of your earnings year over year, does that mean your tuna used to taste good but now it doesn't?

  • Is it possible to have good taste AND taste good, too?

fearlessrick

5:21 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Here's what I wrote about "quality" before my post was removed.

"Quality" pages are those which have useful, original, well-written content that is relevant to the topic, deigned for the user (not the advertiser), are easily navigated and don't crash your browser. OK? Does that help?

While quality may be a subjective term, everybody pretty much knows what it is and what it isn't.

Walrus, thanks. Now if Bill and the mods would read your post, maybe there would be some good karma here.

[edited by: fearlessrick at 5:27 pm (utc) on Mar. 6, 2008]

fearlessrick

5:25 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



BTW: in a battle of wits, you should not come unarmed.

martinibuster

5:32 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Rick, let me be a little more explicit regarding the issue of quality, because this is an important point. When discussing AdSense, no one knows what quality means. Quality is defined by AdSense's black box. By definition, we, me, you, Bill, and everyone else on this forum cannot know what quality is because it's defined by a secret algorithm.

fearlessrick

5:38 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



I mentioned quality content or quality pages, and like pr0n, we know it when we see it. That's not so difficult to understand, at least not to me.

I understand your point, but it makes the whole discussion useless. Google's black box "gets it" so why can't humans. I think you're actually making it more of an issue than it needs to be.

martinibuster

5:46 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



The word quality is often used in the context of justifying why our site should be earning more. However, although we know quality when we see it, quality as it relates to AdSense is different than quality as we understand it. This is an important point that needs to be stressed and understood.

Quality as defined by AdSense is defined by a secret algorithm. A number of factors define the quality of our content, possibly including referrer, keyword used to reach your site, clickbacks, etc.

We have our definitions of quality, i.e. Good Taste. But Google is looking for taste that's good, but we have no way of knowing what tastes good to Google. We can guess and there are some good guesses out there.

I understand your point, but it makes the whole discussion useless.

Yes, it does tend to make the discussion useless. However if we focus on what Google thinks is quality, and step away from our understanding of what quality is, then we are on a path that is, at the very least, useful.

wyweb

5:59 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)



I understand your point, but it makes the whole discussion useless.

I have to agree Rick. Continued micro-analyzation is pointless. Google has a long standing track record of not divulging what they consider to be sensitive information to anyone, least of all anyone who might actually benefit from it. And I agree that quality is a subjective term. It's also, with regard to adsense, a mystical term. We don't know.

So where does that leave us? Beats me.


[entirely_off_topic_trivia:]
MB, did you know that a perfect, unflawed specimen of Bluefin Tuna can fetch as much as 20,000.00 on the Japanese market? [cbsnews.com]


One fish. 20K.


Man, am I in the wrong business or what?
[/entirely_off_topic_trivia:]

fearlessrick

6:06 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Yes, it does tend to make the discussion useless. However if we focus on what Google thinks is quality, and step away from our understanding of what quality is, then we are on a path that is, at the very least, useful.

I beg to differ. Logically, since we don't know what Google thinks "quality" is, and may never know, and know that they may change their defitintion of it, it makes little sense to try to discuss their view.

Useful discussions can only occur when the participants understand what it is they're discussing. Quality, from a human, homo sapien point of view, is not a very nebulous concept.

My point was that creating quality content should result in better (higher) adsense earnings. Now, that is a hypothetical. The question is not what "quality" is, but how Google treats pages which I (or we, if there's a consensus) consider "quality content."

Once AdSensers agree on what quality is - and there's not a heck of a lot of argument there - then we can begin to understand what Google likes and dislikes.

Trying to guess what standards Google is using is like firing a shotgun into a muddy river. You'll hit some fish, but you won't know why.

In general, I find all discussions regarding what Google "thinks" to be almost completely useless because their algo may change by the minute or by the day, or not, and we have no way of finding out. Even if we do stumble upon some hint, they can change their process, too. So, yes, useless, pointless, a waste of time.

Eidt: wow, wyweb agrees with me, and he did it in such a concise manner. Cheers! I don't think we're in the wrong business. I think we have a partner (supplier, agent, call them what you will) in G that is more concerned with growing their revenues than ours. That much, to me, anyway, is obvious and why I complain about what publishers are being paid. We have no voice.

dibbern2

6:15 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Hold it, how is this different from the black boxes in G search? And haven't several of those become something that we understand, given bright minds and some time?

fearlessrick

6:26 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



dibbern2: I'm sure people have come to think they understand some of G's search algo, for now, maybe, but it in all liklihood will change, and that's the problem.

We can spend time adjusting to G, or they can adjust their algo to us. I would much prefer the latter, and fight for it, but I don't think it will happen.

That's why I don't care much for Google and see them as an impediment more than as an answer. I have a problem with people and/or companies which keep secrets and I'm not in the habit of trying to uncover them.

My solution has been to do what I think is best rather than focusing on what google "may" like, and that seems to be working right now. In fact, I can say in all honesty that Google has tried to punish my sites for certain behavior, but my traffic and overall business have improved. So, really, I pretty much ignore them now.

wyweb

6:34 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)



wow, wyweb agrees with me,

I never really disagreed with you Rick. I think I may have misunderstood one of your posts and I threw some stuff out there to maybe try to clarify. I don't know if that was disagreement per se. Maybe it was.

We can spend time adjusting to G, or they can adjust their algo to us...

And, given the enormous publisher base, the geographic extremes, the huge variations in all the different sites that publish adsense, how would they go about doing this? In an ideal world, sure. That would be nice. How would what you propose be possible in reality though?

Google adjusting their algo's to each individual publisher. I doubt that's even technically possible.

fearlessrick

7:07 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



wyweb, I guess I meant that in general terms, and I'm sure they have global parameters. What I really mean is that I'd prefer if Google would be less proactive and more reactive. Instead of publishing "guidelines" to which webmasters should (must?) adhere, and trying to get everyone to conform, I'd prefer that they not make sweeping judgments, as they did with rel=nofollow (that really got under my skin) and just be a search engine.

I'd prefer open source, and AdSense/Adwords and Search as separate companies, but I know that's not going to happen.

Sorry if I was misunderstood or misunderstood you.

incrediBILL

7:44 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



My point was that creating quality content should result in better (higher) adsense earnings.

I'll toss in a counter-point here as I don't think it's the quality of the content but it's the nature of the content and the sheer volume of traffic it attracts.

Some sites get a ton of traffic with absolute crap content, marginal at best, and make tons of money while other sites with high quality and well thought out content may bring traffic but make very little via AdSense.

You have to ask yourself if your site meets some basic criteria in performing a function geared toward B2C where the visitors are most likely consumers, otherwise the success rate, payouts, smart pricing are most likely to work against you.

For instance a forum of web designers talking about web design isn't likely to sell much stuff. However, a forum discussing printer repairs by comparison is probably ripe for advertisers selling new printers, printer repair services, ink, toner, paper, etc.. The difference is the web design site is a peer to peer type of environment where the printer repair forum leans more towards the B2C scenario because the likely outcome of someone with a broken printer is they'll need some assistance in repairing or replacing their gear.

My favorite example was the guy that tried to monetize a somewhat popular JOKE site where the ads were based on the content of the jokes and not displaying other humor related sites. One search in Google where the word "joke", "comedy" or "humor" comes up with maybe one ad, if any at all, should give you a clue the site won't work with AdSense whatsoever but affiliate programs selling comedy CD's might pay.

Hope that makes a little sense.

I'll also hazard a guess that smart pricing is based on the actions of the visitors after they click the ads. If those visitors tend have a high bounce ratio off advertisers sites your payouts probably get discounted heavily. If those visitors tend to result in action, such as a transaction on the advertisers site, you probably get paid a lot more per click.

Once a service like AdSense gets ROI statistics on certain types of sites such as the web designer vs. print repair example above then it's possible to statistically predict the behavior of the visitors based on similar sites and discount them in advance.

Obviously it's their secret sauce and they aren't telling what makes it work but a little common sense can help you figure out within reason what should be more likely to succeed.

Lastly, AdSense isn't the best money maker for all sites or all pages within a site and it's best to keep an open mind with monetization efforts and not just keep trying what doesn't work over and over and over...

[edited by: incrediBILL at 7:47 pm (utc) on Mar. 6, 2008]

netchicken1

8:42 pm on Mar 6, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Great post Bill. also there is a block in the income from certian types of sites. Google said last year that 'make money online' type sites get a poor income rate.

So far this month I am up by 1/4 to 1/3 over jan and feb. Getting close to my highs of November and December.

Admin, can we have some sort of voting system so we can see at a glance the general opinion as to how well people are doing?

Scrolling through the posts doesn't tell us anything. If we could rate our monthly income as a % of normal (whatever the heck that is) we might get some sort of sense of reality.

Every month we have this thread, there is enough demand for a more efficient way of collating the data.

dibbern2

1:19 am on Mar 7, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



netchicken,
I tried running a thread like that Oct, Nov, Dec 07, but never got more than about 20 responses.

andrewshim

5:07 am on Mar 7, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Some sites get a ton of traffic with absolute crap content, marginal at best, and make tons of money while other sites with high quality and well thought out content may bring traffic but make very little via AdSense.

Publishers know that. They know that the visitors are looking for something and they're not going to find it in their content, but IN THE ADS.

I'll also hazard a guess that smart pricing is based on the actions of the visitors after they click the ads. If those visitors tend have a high bounce ratio off advertisers sites your payouts probably get discounted heavily. If those visitors tend to result in action, such as a transaction on the advertisers site, you probably get paid a lot more per click.

you mean they delay the earnings of the present click and pay out after they determing the actions of the visitor?

or

the increase the potential earnings threshold for future clicks?

night707

12:27 pm on Mar 7, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Crap mfa content + solid black hat methods frequently ensure great, stable Google positions and big adsense earnings because users find the ads more interesting.

Many sites with rich, userfriendly content such as images, videos and proper news are rare on Google`s No.1 search result pages. For many kws some of the very sites are not even among the top 40.

webyao

6:17 am on Mar 20, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member




System: The following 2 messages were spliced on to this thread from: http://www.webmasterworld.com/google_adsense/3606111.htm [webmasterworld.com] by martinibuster - 11:51 pm on Mar. 19, 2008 (utc -8)


This month my ecpm is more and more low!Now a click just 4 cents!It's too low!It is ten cents last month.I'm very Disappointed for Google.

Atomic

6:31 am on Mar 20, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Whover's bidding on those keywords must be thrilled though.

Bluepixel

9:27 am on Mar 20, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I bet that person pays at least 20 cent ;)

Lame_Wolf

1:02 pm on Mar 20, 2008 (gmt 0)

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Today is my worse day *EVER*
Either that, or there is a click dump due. It did update a moment ago, but nothing to what I expected. Something doesn't feel right.

wackybrit

9:41 pm on Mar 20, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Just to provide a data point, my CPM has quadrupled in the last two days. This is usually a bad sign though.. as whenever this happens in the past, I get a week of record beating CPMs, then they crash for a few months thereafter :(

andrewshim

10:19 pm on Mar 20, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Just to provide a data point, my CPM has quadrupled in the last two days. This is usually a bad sign though.. as whenever this happens in the past, I get a week of record beating CPMs, then they crash for a few months thereafter

I believe when you pass a specific threshold (eCPM or CTR), it'll trigger the smartpricing algo. I also worry when I see a sharp spike in my eCPM or CTR.

King_Fisher

5:02 am on Mar 21, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



February was a disaster, March some what better.

Reminds me of the old rock hymn;" Ive been down so long,it all looks up to me!"

...KF

sutrostyle

6:14 am on Mar 21, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



ecpm is 1/2 of what it used to be last year this time, a bit up though since last October smartpricing algorithm change.

Most of adsense has been replaced by tribal fusion which gives 3x+ higher ecpm- we just never tried that before, since adsense performance was decent enough.

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