Forum Moderators: martinibuster

Message Too Old, No Replies

November 21, 2007: One Month On From The Glitch

How do your metrics look?

         

HuskyPup

5:42 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)



For those affected we now have our first monthaversary(!), my metrics look like this compared to the first three weeks of October which were as "normal":

Page impressions -3.05%
Clicks -16.40%
CTR -13.76%
eCPM -38.95%
Average daily earnings -40.82%

For those AFFECTED, are yours similar, better or worse?

europeforvisitors

10:28 pm on Nov 28, 2007 (gmt 0)



Everything in my case points to a true glitch and not anything natural or intentional.

Could be. That does raise the question of why only some people are affected, though. (Mind you, it's a question that has no answer when there's no way to identify a common element among the affected publishers).

Mentat

10:31 pm on Nov 28, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Saturday and Sunday where excellent days (this is strange for me)
Monday, Thursday and todey.. Is going down, but my traffic is very good.

HuskyPup

10:42 pm on Nov 28, 2007 (gmt 0)



unglitched on November 9

LOL, or should that be deglitched? :-))

I keep seeing signs of this happening and then it falls over again, most frustrating, maybe they're doing each site manually, yeah...right, believe that if you want to!

Saturday and Sunday where excellent days (this is strange for me)
Monday, Thursday and todey.. Is going down, but my traffic

This is sooooo annoying, I reported yesterday a Monday with 37% more Page Impressions yet exactly the same clicks and earnings as Sunday. This is totally unnatural or downright plain weird and so highly improbable to say the very least.

Methinks they're still working through whatever it is they Glitched-Up!

Crystal Pegasus

2:58 am on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



As a few others have mentioned, we experienced a sharp, brief drop (in the possible earlier Google test run) in September for a few days, down to about 25% of our "usual" earnings. This returned to normal afterwards, and we've just climbed steadily up since, to about 30% higher earnings now. (as per usual, with ongoing adding of content etc) So, we didn't experience the actual "glitch".

One thing that interested me was alephh's comment to thaidomain

"I guess that you're from Thailand?

One more tiny detail to support my 'SERP (2-data-sets-were-combined) -update was all about continents/countries'.

Maybe everything is more geo-targeted, meaning that global sites lost and "sort-of-local" sites may actually have gained... "

We are in Australia, and our site is definitely geared to local traffic, though we do get visitors from all over the world too, but majority are from Australia.

Perhaps there is some truth in his supposition? How many others have experienced loss if they are more globally oriented, and gain/no effect if they are local focussed?

europeforvisitors

4:16 am on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)



Perhaps there is some truth in his supposition? How many others have experienced loss if they are more globally oriented, and gain/no effect if they are local focussed?

My site has a global audience, and I haven't seen any dramatic changes in October or November. Just the usual daily swings and a slight erosion in CTR (not surprising for my topic at this time of year). If the "glitch" that people have been talking about has anything to do with global vs. local, it hasn't been evident in my statistics.

tim222

4:20 am on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Methinks they're still working through whatever it is they Glitched-Up!

This has been going on for over a month. At what point is it no longer considered a "glitch" and becomes the norm?

OnlyToday

5:32 am on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



How many others have experienced loss if they are more globally oriented...

While my earnings have recovered, the mix is quite different now. I am getting more revenue from US traffic. Traffic from .mx .es .pe .cl .tr .hr etc. is still 40% of the total and produces as many clicks as before but at a much lower eCPM.

Int'l traffic always did get a lower eCPM, but it was less lopsided before the glitch. I might add that while my daily earnings have recovered and stabilized somewhat the intraday stats are still much more erratic than before the glitch.

And that observation suggests that it may be a restructuring based on region or nations.

If so it would be rolled out in stages and not be done all at once globally for reasons that don't require much imagination, especially since the disruption is significant for those affected.

sutrostyle

7:59 am on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



While my earnings have recovered, the mix is quite different now. I am getting more revenue from US traffic.

Our traffic is 70% US, and ecpm is down 70% compared to pre-Glitch.
It's clearly an algo change- I suppose Google wants us out.

HuskyPup

12:50 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)



At what point is it no longer considered a "glitch" and becomes the norm?

Hehehe, as my best friend is wont to say "Define the state normal"!

My feelings are that the "Glitched" ones are in a variable new norm as they work through and repair whatever it is they glitched-up however I also feel that my new CTR rate is here to stay consequently a lower eCPM.

I don't know what I have done to have supposedly generated so many "invalid" clicks after 4+ years or possibly is it a new way of determining "vaild" clicks.

Has the algo been changed in such a way that a single clicker who immediately bounces back is not considered valid but someone who goes on and looks at several pages is considered valid?

In my widget sector most AdWorders take visitors to their home page, a tiny minority have a specific landing page where purchases can be made. Surely it would be unfair to penalise a publisher when it is the advertiser who has supplied a unworthy landing page?

It's only an idea but maybe...?

And that observation suggests that it may be a restructuring based on region or nations.

Yep, I've wondered that too since I am still seeing completely normal EPC values until the USA kicks in for the day when it begins to fall even though my sites cater to a global audience.

One good note for the day is that my EPC so far today is back to the top end of pre-Glitch levels which lends even more credence to the restructuring possibility.

I suppose Google wants us out.

I don't believe so, if they wanted you out they could easily say so. Believe me I know it's exasperating not knowing what is going on and why however they do have one heck of a lot of balls to juggle all at once and it is inevitable that occasionally they will drop a couple with the Glitch-Type of consequence, then they have to work out just what it was they did to cause such mayhem for a specific set of publishers.

Just look at those who have been unaffected. Why? Look at those recording huge increases. Why? To my way of thinking they are just as much of a concern as to those of us who have suffered the Glitch losses/reductions.

europeforvisitors

4:00 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)



And that observation suggests that it may be a restructuring based on region or nations

For what it's worth, I'm told (by people who have good reason to know) that the [self-censored] sector's display-ad CPMs tend to be higher--sometimes much higher--in the UK than in the U.S. So there may be something to the notion that AdSense geotargeting may be playing a role in eCPM gains or declines.

tim222

6:31 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Hehehe, as my best friend is wont to say "Define the state normal"!

Good point. There is no such thing as "normal" when you're dealing with AdSense. But I don't think Google considers this a "glitch." I doubt if they're doing anything to change things back to the way they were before Oct 20.

Just look at those who have been unaffected. Why? Look at those recording huge increases. Why? To my way of thinking they are just as much of a concern as to those of us who have suffered the Glitch losses/reductions.

Concern? Well, yes, there's a nagging feeling that it's just a bubble that will burst soon and the revenue will decline. It's not like at work when you get a raise and you know it's there to stay.

I think the biggest difference is that the gainers are for the most part keeping mum on the topic.

HuskyPup

7:11 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)



I doubt if they're doing anything to change things back to the way they were before Oct 20.

Nor do I however I am definitely still seeing my return to pre-Glitch EPC values yet this huge CTR fall is what I really do not comprehend.

the gainers are for the most part keeping mum on the topic.

I would too:-)

martinibuster

7:25 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



But I don't think Google considers this a "glitch."

It's not certain it is a glitch. That's not something we know. That's something some people suspect, and it should be pointed out (yet again) that it's not across the board.

If this is something external to Google, such as a sudden growth in inventory or a manifestation of consumer and/or business spending, or an unusually low seasonal dip, then it's not a glitch.

If it's a tweak on how conversions are measured and thus how much publishers are paid, that's not a glitch either.

netchicken1

7:29 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I am one of those who have had an increase in ecpm and income over the last few months, just a slow steady rise each week.

However I dare not consider the changes permanent, I just give thanks for it on a day to day basis.

Change is the only consistant thing with adsense.

OnlyToday

8:04 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



It's not certain it is a glitch.

The only certainty to my mind is that the cause cannot possibly be external to Google, there are just too many anomalies that point the other way and foreclose coincidence.

My best guess--given what I know from my own stats and what I've read here and elsewhere--is that it began as an intentional change to a sub-set of accounts, probably as an experiment, and it then cascaded into a series of glitches, bugs and data corruptions which are being fixed and tweaked on the fly.

The nature of their intentional change initially involved the geo-targeting algorithm and channels it seems.

Their denials, secrecy and begrudgingly late admissions do indicate that there may be some unresolved internal struggles and argument, bruised egos and resentments and they desperately want to keep this all confidential. Just garden variety office politics, IOW.

europeforvisitors

8:37 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)



My best guess--given what I know from my own stats and what I've read here and elsewhere--is that it began as an intentional change to a sub-set of accounts

A subset of accounts? I find that hard to swallow. How would Google choose the accounts?

I'd guess that a subset of content types, conversion patterns, or some other factor (or combination of factors) would be more likely.

And don't forget, whatever Google has done (assuming that it has done something) could be just one contributor to a change in earnings. For example, if a "smart pricing" change cut John Doe's earnings by 10%, a change in ad allocation reduced his earnings by another 10%, and market conditions cut his earnings by 10%, John Doe would have a 30% decline in earnings, but the decline wouldn't be attributable to any one factor--even though a lot of people (including John) might be looking for a simple, single explanation.

HuskyPup

9:14 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)



Heavens this is getting more and more frustrating!

After 12 hours of today my EPC has returned to its top value range HOWEVER my CTR has collapsed to it's lowest ever! It's down 30% compared to a fairly consistent 14 days CTR band.

I sure hope there's a click dump coming my way.

Whatever next?

ken_b

9:20 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



A subset of accounts? I find that hard to swallow. How would Google choose the accounts?

Maybe the same way they choose who to invite to participate in product/feature Beta tests.

OnlyToday

9:33 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



A subset of accounts? I find that hard to swallow.

I find your incredulity hard to swallow. Why not, but more importantly why does this matter?

How would Google choose the accounts?

That's irrelevant. It could be any number of criteria or even random, but this doesn't matter at all to my hypothesis.

I'd guess that a subset of content types, conversion patterns, or some other factor (or combination of factors) would be more likely.

Sure that's possible, but again this doesn't affect my hypothesis. I think what I said stands up well, all the detail you present notwithstanding.

[edited by: OnlyToday at 9:34 pm (utc) on Nov. 29, 2007]

OnlyToday

9:56 pm on Nov 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



After 12 hours of today my EPC has returned to its top value range HOWEVER my CTR has collapsed to it's lowest ever!

That's typical of the intraday stat instability I've been seeing lately. It has mostly been leveling out by the day's final posting. My CTR is quite low at the moment as well, mostly offset by a higher than average eCPM.

HuskyPup

2:23 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)



After 12 hours of today my EPC has returned to its top value range HOWEVER my CTR has collapsed to it's lowest ever!

And it stayed there!

Yesterday I saw my lowest daily quantity of clicks only beaten by New Year's Day and last Friday 23rd Nov the day after ThanksGiving.

My EPC for half the day was back to normal levels however the second half of the day saw it plummet back to the bottom end of my old value range consequently my eCPM is now 50% of pre-Glitch levels.

What on earth are they doing at The Plex?

I have let this catastrophic glitch ride with the vain hope that they would eventually be able to correct their errors, it is plainly obvious that for ME the whole thing is falling apart at the seams and with the Xmas period arriving shortly, when I know for a 2-3 week period my earnings would reduce, I may as well remove the damned code altogether since it couldn't be more FUBAR than it is now.

I am not just completetly and utterly pi$$ed off with G now, I have now lost faith in them too...period...and if their next financials show a satisfactory state of affairs then those of us affected will all know the true answer.

OnlyToday

3:03 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



And it stayed there!

I regret to report that mine improved only very slightly and this morning it is worse. I fear I may be slipping back into glitchland, though eCPM is holding up.

HuskyPup

3:41 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)



I fear I may be slipping back into glitchland

Yep, November has been my worst AdSense month since February 2005, which is 33 months if anyone was thinking that's not so long ago, and actual Dollar earnings are less than 50% of November 2006.

On the upside our in-house devised advertising programme is going to be ready for January 1st 2008 launch therefore I only have to suffer this garbage for a few more weeks and then it's arrivederci AdSense and they will only have themselves to blame if more people do likewise!

helleborine

9:30 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I am dumping AdSense from my 4 main income-generating sites.

Today.

Small sites where advertising campaigns aren't worth the management effort will continue to earn me AdSense pennies.

But the big buck sites are off AdSense. My webpage real estate is being underpaid since July. I should be making 30% more (traffic up) not 40% less, minus unfavorable exchange rate.

I am also shifting the emphasis from free content to pay-for content. That works well for me anyway. Just a bit more work.

I consider the AdSense dump both a challenge and an opportunity. I have merchandise to advertise myself and make money from; and I have a good pool of advertisers to contact once I know (from my own experience) how much the traffic is truly worth.

'Nuff moaning, time for action.

sutrostyle

9:56 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I am dumping AdSense from my 4 main income-generating sites.

I just read about this outfit Adroll [digg.com...] - does anyone know anything about them? Is this a viable option? We are getting a bit desperate with remaining Adsense (we shifted our big channels to RMX already).

This 85 message thread spans 3 pages: 85