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November 21, 2007: One Month On From The Glitch

How do your metrics look?

     
5:42 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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For those affected we now have our first monthaversary(!), my metrics look like this compared to the first three weeks of October which were as "normal":

Page impressions -3.05%
Clicks -16.40%
CTR -13.76%
eCPM -38.95%
Average daily earnings -40.82%

For those AFFECTED, are yours similar, better or worse?

6:05 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Worse and started to replace AS with other sources, period.
6:20 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Impressions:-3.97%
Clicks:-17.16%
CTR:-20.44%
eCPM:-39.79%
Earnings:-37.38%

Now that is far too much of a co-incidence (for eCPM and Earnings anyway).

6:52 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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If it goes any lower, I'll be paying them. Looking for a good alternative. Sent an email and received the same canned response that others here have gotten.
7:03 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Now that is far too much of a co-incidence (for eCPM and Earnings anyway).

Whoa...who else is looking at similar figures, scary, scary.

castar - Who do you think you'll replace them with? We don't have much option in the UK that's why we're creating our own ad network.

7:06 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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You can use YPN in the UK if you go through a 3rd party agency like OMGUK - that's a possibility if things get worse.
7:56 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Page impressions +8.75%
Clicks -12.9%
CTR -19.9%
eCPM -21.7%
Average daily earnings -17.6%

BUT, I have done some things in an attempt to increase those numbers, I didn't sit idly by. I implemented a new design on one smaller site which increased it's CPM by 46.6% (yeah!), and removed an ad unit from a few pages that had two units. So if I hadn't done those changes my numbers would be closer to yours.

I feel like I'm not out of the woods yet. I have tons of channels and I'm slowly reviewing each site and channel and seeing what I can do to get the CPM up. I'm also looking into other companies, have already signed up for 2 - directmedia and I forget the other, I stopped using them already :-)

8:42 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Comparing worst weeks to 'normal' I'm seeing -20% figures, but now (after some recovering) more like -10% (compared to long term 'normal' numbers).

I know it's still "short" sample (1 month) and there has been special days and holiday-weeks... but still, surprisingly similar numbers.

It would be intresting to compare other variables (to be useful it would require exchange of quite sensitive data), like where you are located (both you and your servers), what sector are you in, how do you promote your site etc. To see if there is one or more things in common.

10:06 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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We used to make three times more with adsense than intellitxt. Now adsense income is half of what intellitxt is. YPN doesn't have good targeting for my niche. I've looked up alternatives, nothing looks promising. Now would be a good time for MSN Contextual to be released to us, don't you think?
10:27 pm on Nov 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Site Traffic: -11%
Ad Impressions: -27%
CTR: -11%
eCPM: -11%
Earnings: -27%

I think we should revisit this topic at the end of the months because the data above just misses out on the glitch days of October (which started Oct 20-21 onwards).

4:32 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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hi there.. my experience has been worse..

Page impressions -4.05%
Clicks -30.32%
CTR -54.2%
eCPM -63.45%
Average daily earnings -67.12%

Does anyone think this glitch will be corrected?

if yes, any idea when?

Also, please suggest alternates to adsense, I am from india, hence YPN cant be used here..

7:31 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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If anything happened, it seems to have been for the better :

Page impressions : -4.8%
Clicks : -4.3%
CTR : -0.3%
eCPM : +22.4%
Earnings : +16.5%

11:53 am on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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thaidomain, I guess that you're from Thailand?

One more tiny detail to support my 'SERP (2-data-sets-were-combined) -update was all about continents/countries'.

Maybe everything is more geo-targeted, meaning that global sites lost and "sort-of-local" sites may actually have gained...

5:26 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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As compared the the same period last year:
Nov 1 - Nov 21

page impressions - 120%
clicks - 113%
CTR - 95%
eCPM - 51%
Earnings - 61%
EPC - 54%

5:41 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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November deviation from moving 3 year averages.

Page impressions +4.59%
Clicks -29.44%
CTR -33.49%
eCPM -24.65%
ePClick +10.42%
Average daily earnings -25.90%

Chapman-

6:00 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Remains an umitigated (sp?) disaster.

What's more, the previously "foolproof" method of raising eCPM by eliminating low eCPM pages just isn't showing the same kick. We see this more as a cap than as a glitch. Just wished they had capped us at our average rather than 60% of our average:-)

6:33 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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helleborine, there must be an error in your calculation because your percentages can't be more than 100.

page impressions - 120%

For example, if you had 100K impressions last year and 20K impressions this period, then your decrease would be 100-20/100 = 80%. To drop 120% would mean it went from 100K down to -20K. Any decrease greater than 100% takes you into the negative.

Or are you using dashes as opposed to negative signs? Perhaps you mean a 20% increase over last year? Maybe I'm the one confused here ;-)

[edited by: Swanny007 at 6:34 pm (utc) on Nov. 22, 2007]

9:13 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Ha! Swanny, I thought the same thing when I first read that post. However, I'm pretty sure that all of those numbers are gains.
9:39 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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IMO he's saying 120% of last year's figure, 95% of last years figure, etc. No error, although these posts could be clearer.

Also I don't see why page impressions is being brought up at all. That's a product of gross traffic and not related to AdSense. Even Google SE referrals have no relation to anything going on in AdSense.

9:51 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Also I don't see why page impressions is being brought up at all.

Because if Google doesn't have enough inventory to show then Page Impressions will go down since they won't rotate the ads as much therefore the PI's could be an indicator of reduced inventory or, as in my case, my traffic usually reduces about 10% overall through Nov until Xmas therefore when people are trying to compare information we need to make sure that we are comparing like with like.

Does that make sense what I've written?!

9:56 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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As compared the the same period last year:
Nov 1 - Nov 21
page impressions - 120%
clicks - 113%
CTR - 95%
eCPM - 51%
Earnings - 61%
EPC - 54%

I think he means as % of previous figures therefore:

page impressions +20%
clicks +13%
CTR -5%
eCPM -49%
Earnings -39%
EPC -46%

Please tell me if I'm wrong!

10:10 pm on Nov 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Oct 22 - Nov 21 Versus Sep 22 - Oct 21

Impressions + 5.83%
Clicks - 16.91%
CTR - 21.40%
eCPM - 13.11%
Earnings - 7.97%

Comparing to the same period last year would be even worse

12:50 am on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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You're right HuskyPup. I used to work in a laboratory, I have been trained to think with such percentages.

Traffic up, everything else down.

3:30 am on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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One of the theories seems to be Spricing, but if that was the case what is the cause for the drastic drop in CTR? My traffic too is up but my net results closely compare with those mentioned here. Spricing would account for Ecpm but not CTR when traffic is also up. Any thoughts? I've gone through my entire site and the ads are about the same so I can only conclude G is not counting clicks, but why?
7:39 am on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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IanCP,

about the same numbers here.

My CTR dropped about 20% on October 19th and hasn't recovered since then. EPC is slightly up but not enough to compensate.

Since then I'm observing many of those 'expanded ads' (only two or three ads showing in a rectangle) on my sites, which are more a scream in my visitors' faces than an incentive to click.

(Sorry for being off topic as I don't suffer from The Glitch as others do.)

8:37 am on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Here are my theories:

Q: Why a sudden drop in CTR?
A: This is probably caused by a combination of three things.
First, I have noticed a change in the counting (i.e. the way Google determines whether a click is valid or not). This happened to me in September, probably as a guinea pig as very few others chimed in. Obviously, if Google does not display all clicks (because some are deemed invalid), CTR goes down.
Second, the change in clickable area might have caused this as well. As discussed in other threads, depending on the degree of blending, a site may be hit.
Third, seasonal effects are obviously an important factor. These can be eliminated in the analysis by comparing year-on-year values rather than intra-year values. (This again may only be valid if you are indeed seeing a similar behaviour of visitors every year.)

Q: Why a drop in eCPM?
A: This is probably the hottest question in the Adsense community (if there is such a group). I believe that Google wants to incentivize sites to show aggressive growth in order to keep up with their own growth (and specifically, their very own growth expectations put forward by analysts). Unless you run a UGC site, it will be quite difficult to achieve this kind of traffic growth. In my case, I'd need two to four times the traffic today to just keep the absolute revenue level of my best day (which occured in the first half of 2006). With a static site and classical content that kind of growth is unrealistic; with a dynamic site and user generated content it is possible. With such a site, it may even be possible to see growth of absolute revenue.

But as always, we don't know what we don't know, so it's just a theory of my own.

10:51 am on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Less than 1% drop in income from last month... but I have been fiddling with my channels to keep the payments up.

Mike

11:02 am on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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This past Oct. was 50% of the income from the Oct. before that...

And last year's Oct. was off 50% from the Oct. before that... it is a steady down hill slide.

Mike

1:23 pm on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I just posted this on the ThanksGiving Day earnings thread in case anyone missed it:

yet earnings are are inline with this month's daily avaerage. Go figure.

What on earth is happening? Me too, absolutely spot on post-Glitch average earnings, CTR nearly pre-Glitch level, EPC at the lower end of pre-Glitch range however eCPM at the very top of post-Glitch level therefore still about 20% below pre-Glitch level.

I obviously have a new trading range value of +/-20% of average daily earnings that has been remarkably consistent the past two weeks whilst I have left the sites alone to see precisely what transpired.

zett

This happened to me in September, probably as a guinea pig as very few others chimed in.

Yep I posted in September that I had suddenly seen a big change in EPC values which suddenly bounced back.

Second, the change in clickable area might have caused this as well.

The Glitch was before the introduction of this surely?

Third, seasonal effects are obviously an important factor.

I can't agree with that since statistically it is most unprobable for a mass exodus like this PLUS we have to remember that many sites have not been affected. If it were a seasonal effect many more would be seeing anomalies yet thay are not.

For example, EFV's travel site has hardly been affected yet someone else's travel site has been hit with The Glitch penalty therefore I'm pretty sure we can eliminate seasonal effects.

Unless you run a UGC site, it will be quite difficult to achieve this kind of traffic growth.

An interesting idea however what type of ads do UGC sites run? I very much doubt they have my niche specialised construction products.

However you are totally correct about one thing:

But as always, we don't know what we don't know,

Thanks G, I'm now beginning to look like a mushroom!

1:52 pm on Nov 23, 2007 (gmt 0)

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This happened to me in September, probably as a guinea pig as very few others chimed in.

We took a 20% year-over-year hit at the beginning of the summer, which at the time I thought might be due to our experimenting with PPA or some other issues that turned out not to matter. Then we took a another 20% hit at the same time a lot of you saw a 40% hit. So if somebody is guilty for being a canary in the coal mine who didn't yell loud enough when Google started A/B testing how low they can go, it's us.

Sorry all:-)

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