Forum Moderators: martinibuster
ASA seems to be implying that no glitch exists. But, given that multiple people are are reporting a similar, and substantial, CPM decrease, SOMETHING is going on. How is your CPM this week as compared to last month? If down, does it vary across channels, or it is evenly down?
FarmBoy
My income isn't decreasing as much as fluctuating wildly. The ecpm will plunge one day then double that the next.
And now even during the day it seems to rise and plunge more than 'normal'.
In the end I am still about the same, but it certianly is hard on the confidence ...
I have a general news type site, and have had the allowed sites running ever since it began.
comparing 1-19th October 2007 [19 days] with 20th October thru 3d November timeframe [15 days]:
EPC = -8%
eCPM = -14%
So, to me it's not the magical -35% penalty some are reporting here. But I have seen my eCPM act absolutely irrational over the past few days: one of these days even shot straight into the top-10 of "lowest eCPM value ever", making it the worst day eCPM-wise since the initial months after joining Adsense in 2005. So I believe that these accounts are true and 100% believable.
To me, it's a money grab by Google.
My income isn't decreasing as much as fluctuating wildly. The ecpm will plunge one day then double that the next.
I commented about the opposite thing some months ago after our income took the first leg down. It was a sudden and new phenomena for us, eCPM would be going along at $X, then there would be a day at 1.5$X followed by a day at 0.5$X. The good days always came immediately before the bad days.
It wasn't like this prior to June 2007, when eCPM was steady for a couple years. The consistency with which extra-bad days have followed extra-good days has been, consistent. BTW, the extra-good days were basically in line with what we used to earn, so it had the feeling of a "actual income" day slipping by the Google discount goalie from time to time, and then the Google referee saying "Give that back!"
Tough playing away games.
But if the exceptions prove the rule, maybe webmasters will grok that Google has lots of tools in their black box, and they don't have to use them all on the same publishers at the same time. Maybe we should call it A,B,C testing.
the extra-good days were basically in line with what we used to earn, so it had the feeling of a "actual income" day slipping by the Google discount goalie from time to time, and then the Google referee saying "Give that back!"
Yep, that was my impression as well, especially considering my experience with the "missing clicks" mystery in September/October this year (where Google seems to have underreported clicks).
Could it be that they somehow changed the way/algo that evaluates the validity of a click? Tightening the screw on clickfraud (not that I would be aware of that going on on my sites)? And then have micro "click dumps" the day after?
"comparing 1-19th October 2007 [19 days] with 20th October thru 3d November timeframe [15 days]:
EPC = -8%
eCPM = -14%"
My own figures (based on a site which gets about 1,000,000 counted page impressions a month) are similar, if not a bit more on the downside.
What constitutes a "big" and a "small" publisher for Google when the sum total of the smaller publishers is likely substantial? I have been a big supporter of Google - perhaps even part of the "buzz" for years - but would be reassured if they were to clarify what is happening such that I can reassess my business model as necessary.
Could it be that they somehow changed the way/algo that evaluates the validity of a click?
Anything is possible, but it doesn't have that specific feeling to us. Among other issues, it would leave them open to huge legal claims if they decided at this late date that they've mischaracterized valid clicks all along. Let me make the argument from the opposite direction. Our own problems started long before October, though with less impact, and coincided with two events, the filling of our competitive ad filter and our enthusiastic trial of PPA.
The full ad filter limited our ability to keep MFA's off the site, which I've long suspected is crucial to maintaining a good eCPM because the Google algo is WAY too sensitive to minor momentum changes. I think it's tailored for sites showing hundreds of thousands of page views a day rather than thousands. So when a new advertiser comes along and Google's algo says, "Lets try it on some random sites," they might allot 1000 or 5000 ad views for each site. On a big site, it would come and go without causing a ripple. On a small site, it's like dropping a volkswagon in a bathtub. The trial runs of new MFAs on small sites works to depresses the eCPM unless the publisher blocks them. That's nothing new, and I assume Google has the algo working the way it does because it's more important for them to get the big sites right than the small sites. Or, they just never noticed:-)
Our trial of PPA was a disaster, which I blame on the horrible ads that were available from what otherwise would have been good advertiser matches. ASA stated on this forum that PPA data wouldn't be used to smartprice advertisers, but that just means "to the best of knowledge of whoever ASA asked." I had a go-around with Google on a different matter relating to internal walls last year, and came away with the impression that Department A isn't privy to what Department B is doing, and the internal culture is too youthful to see where this could be a problem. So PPA might have hurt us.
Putting all of this into the context of the October 2007 eCPM changes that this thread is about, I no longer believe that either of the above were at the bottom of our eCPM drops in June or October. I think it's just an ongoing revenue shift away from small publishers to Google and large publishers. While it's merely speculation, I've been reading these threads long enough to have a feel for which regular posters have traffic and eCPM similar to our own with high quality hobby/resource websites, and I see all of their names popping up in the recent getting killed threads. So I don't believe it's any fault on the part of individual publishers, and I doubt it's a broken gear at Google, I think it's just the new reality.
So I don't believe it's any fault on the part of individual publishers, and I doubt it's a broken gear at Google, I think it's just the new reality.
I'm certain the publishers have done nothing wrong however I do believe something has been broken and may only be semi-repaired.
Our drop in CTR and EPC exactly at the same time is far too coincidental coming straight after a maintenance update.
Many of us are seeing metrics never before experienced, for instance since 22nd October my CTR has dropped 12.66% even though my site logs show everything stable.
I could almost forgive them IF they owned up to a calamitous data push implementation however that would now take some serious balls to do.
EPC = some reduction
CTR = big reduction
As a consequence eCPM diminishes.
Is Google taking a bigger slice of the pie? I don't personally see any evidence of that.
What I do think, in my case, is that advertisers are diminishing [for any number of reasons] leaving relatively off topic ads on my sites which leads to the obvious much lower CTR. People aren't going to click on ads which are neither appealing nor relevant to the topic.
This can also mean that lower paying ads are replacing the ones formerly showing.
Is this because of reduced numbers of Advertisers on the content network or, just increasing numbers of Publishers or, a combination of both?
The one thing I can be sure of is that this totally beyond my control and probably yours as well.
I don't see any grounds for a sinister conspiracy theory. Unless someone is hijacking your clicks.
I don't see any grounds for a sinister conspiracy theory.
I haven't heard anyone theorize about a conspiracy, where do you get that?
On the other hand anything that lowers my income is indeed sinister and must be dealt with aggressively, if possible.
[edited by: OnlyToday at 9:12 pm (utc) on Nov. 5, 2007]
The change was too abrupt to have been advertiser defections, it had to be connected to the way ads were served to my site and eCPM could have been affected entirely by the CTR or there could have been additional changes I can't calculate.
[edited by: OnlyToday at 9:50 pm (utc) on Nov. 5, 2007]
Oh, and for the record my stats and CTR are exactly the same and I don't see what relation CTR has to eCPM
How then do you explain the fact this has hit such a diverse bunch of sites, across the globe at exactly the same time?
a) Content advertisers defecting from the content network. Hey they're paying the money and go with the best value.
b) Content advertisers having access to newer and better tools to target ads more effectively. And again go with the best value.
I don't know what tools Advertisers have available apart from the odd post here.
Oh, and for the record my stats and CTR are exactly the same
Well if your CTR has remained the same but your eCPM has declined then you must be getting a significant reduction in EPC.
and I don't see what relation CTR has to eCPM
See above but more particularly, for 10,000 page views with a 4% CTR and an average EPC of $0.20 your earnings are $80.00 and an eCPM of $8.00
Halve your CTR and your eCPM as well as earnings also halve.
I find it difficult to believe there's some monumental screw up at AdSense responsible for this wide spread variation and I doubt they're taking a bigger bite.
While it is conceded that anything is possible in this world I simply can't see AdSense keeping quiet about it because the PR consequences would be huge.
We all know the truth of anything ultimately emerges one way or another, no matter how hard executives of corporations try to keep things under wraps.
Unreported screw up or a bigger bite as some suggest, would do immense and very serious damage to Google's credibility. Not something I would think they'd consider lightly.
But! Who knows for sure?
[added] How do we know this is indeed widespread or if even actually across the globe?
Take the number of posts we have here, divide by multiple posts we've made to determine the actual number of people complaining and we don't exactly fit the profile of a large number of disaffected Publishers. Not even a scant handful. Some miniscule number across the network.
[edited by: IanCP at 10:48 pm (utc) on Nov. 5, 2007]
What I am seeing is a lot of volatility that seems to be a little bit out of synch with historical trends. I was doing OK till about the 20th or so, then things dropped. However, yesterday, Sunday, I had a day that was back to the usual. It did look like some clicks had been credited from previous days.. That's just a guess.
Now, today, the stats seem to be sticking and revenue is low. I'll have to see if anything comes in by the end of the night.
Here's a couple of goofy thoughts...
- What is google doing with facebook? Could inventory be going there or perhaps inventory is being syndicated somewhere else decreasing supply?
- Maybe there is an ad blocker out there that is killing adsense. I kind of doubt it would hit so sharply though.
- Any kind of DOS going on that would affect things AFTER the user clicks on the ad? In that case, I would think that it would show up in the adwords forum.
Anyway, it doesn't sound like I'm affected by the same thing that most of the people in this thread are experiencing, but I will say my stats are weird lately.
cg
a) Content advertisers defecting from the content network. Hey they're paying the money and go with the best value.b) Content advertisers having access to newer and better tools to target ads more effectively. And again go with the best value.
And they do so right after every Adsense "system maintenance"? naaa...i realy don't think so.
Your points may explain a gradual decline, not a 40%-50% decline almost overnight.
[edited by: Web_speed at 11:31 pm (utc) on Nov. 5, 2007]
Many comments about how it is only a handful of sites affected. Well there are many lurkers on the forum (like me) and we don't necessarily want to post.
The person who could give some indication would be Brett, since if this is widespread I would expect the visits to this forum to be way above normal!?
From my own observations many of adsense sites there are little more than glorified mfa's.
... maybe Google has shifted the algo to make it not worth it for the dollar a day sites...
I think that some of the publishers reporting drops in these threads are way beyond the dollar a day bracket. I'd guess a few are in the multiple hundreds of dollars a day, at least.
They could simply be getting caught up in this as collateral damage I suppose, but I doubt it, of course anything is possible.
I'd guess a few are in the multiple hundreds of dollars a day, at least.
Mine just dropped below that a few weeks ago...
