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AdSense EPC Going Into Freefall!

Since June 8th 2007

     
5:56 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I am beginning to wonder whether this has anything to do with the MFA/ARB clampdown?

Since June 8th my EPC has dropped 14.39%, my eCPM by 12.21% and comparing Monday 4th v Monday 11th my earnings were down 24.63% with the same number of clicks.

This is a bit too co-incidental for my way of thinking.

No my trade is not on holiday this is a 12 month of the year business generally with few fluctuations.

Yes there seem to be plenty of quality advertisers however I am now seeing a lot of "directory type" sites in AdLinks and they were never there before and checking through the SERPs advertising they are cropping up in the first few pages.

Certainly something significant is happening so far as my sites are concerned and if I have a few more days of this then I shall remove my AdLinks to see if that stops the rot.

Is anyone else seeing similar.

11:20 am on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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You are absolutely right. Even with all this quality score and smart pricing, both of which should penalise the good publishers but benefit the good ones, our income has been slowly declining.

It's almost entirely a cost per click issue. Google needs to be billing advertisers more and more each month as their network becomes a more important advertising location.

11:30 am on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Ups and down is part of AS; here is my story so far
Jan - Down
Feb - Recovering
Mar - Almost there
Apr & May - Top of the world
June - Down 50%
July -? no idea

This cycle will keep repeating as AS is biding network and not like TF where your income remains on same level or go up as traffic increases.

12:26 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Are you experiencing the same as this thread:

[webmasterworld.com...]

or are referring to a longer-term reduction?

ann

12:26 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I don't know what the hullabaloo was all about because all I see is where Google's little move only benefited Google.

I have twice as many fleas in the flea cage than I had going into this shouting match. I knew it was much ado about nothing with all it's sound and fury!

I wish they would get off it and help out the publishers. I thought it was just going to be a bumpy ride but this isn't even a ride. The new fleas (same ad companies) just meant a lot more work.

Ann

12:46 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm seeing EPC way up. However my CTR is down 40%. Net result is less money. I believe the CTR is currently down because Google is doing a ad shuffle.

Besides the fleas that Ann mentions - Google has done nothing about the MFA sites who aren't using Adwords.
I've been searching for content theives by search for snippets from my pages.

Nearly every search brings up 3-5 MFA sites with 2-3 ad blocks at the top with fake search results containing snippets. I'd bet there are 10 MFA sites for every real content site out there.

I'd love to DMCA these guys but I guess the 'fair use' theory prevents me from being able to do it.

1:45 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I knew it was much ado about nothing with all it's sound and fury!

Sadly, this has become a familiar story where Adsense is concerned.

[edited by: Scurramunga at 1:46 pm (utc) on June 15, 2007]

1:46 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I've seen the usual ups and downs this month, but the June average is up over other months in 2007, and it's almost exactly the same (down a statistically insignificant 1.25%) as the same period last year.
4:53 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Everything has doubled for me since Monday! Still holding my breath waiting for it to fade but it is not. All eCPM jumped to double digits and the top page to triple.

Still pinching myself!

(general appeal website, free graphics downloads)

[edited by: Khensu at 4:58 pm (utc) on June 15, 2007]

8:21 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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All eCPM jumped to double digits and the top page to triple.

This is bizarre!

Ok, so only a few people have posted but we have either huge falls, equilibrium or huge gains and all from experienced well-seasoned AdSensers.

The last time I received a smack like this was May 5th 2005 and, to be honest, I still really have never understood what that was about other than I was increasing my AdSense earnings rapidly.

I feel at some point that Google is going to have to become more transparent since, no matter how good the program is and its pros and cons, after occurrences/wild swings such as this week, it matters not whether one has won or lost since both sides are saying "Errr, what did I or didn't I do for this loss/bonus?", tell us why such things have happened before we lose faith in your product.

Selling ads direct is not easy however if this were to happen a few more times I'll bet that some will be looking at that option.

8:52 pm on June 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Well mostly people only bother to come here if they have a drop or problem or whatever so the up down threads tend to be a bit one sided.

For what its worth My EPC is up, my ctr is up and very solidly over 1st of month to now and still rising across 15 sites. Its been very steady and actually rising overall for 4 years in october.

Never normally varies more than 10 percent up ur down. 15 days of this month are avaraging 35 to 40 percent up as far as income goes.

All real sites built to share info about 7 years ago and no bought traffic. Never updated either. Traffic has been largely unchanged in the last 6 years either. My filter was emptied about the 5th and is almost full again already. All the old players are still there but using adwords/other. Maybe the ones that are seeing drops are not keeping the filter up to date?

5:43 pm on June 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm always a little slow on the uptake on these threads because if I have a bad day or two, I say, okay that was just a couple of bad days and then if it turns into 3 or 4 I say, okay, it'll get better tomorrow, then if it turns into 5 or 6 bad days I say okay well, it'll- Hey wait a minute! WTH! So now I'm finally chiming in with a "me too" and it was exactly the 8th that my ecpm started tanking big time with yesterday being the absolute worst day in about a year and a half.

Today, however, all of sudden everything looks like it's on the rebound. I've almost earned the total for my entire day yesterday already. For one topic, my ecpm is back to normal and in another it's through the roof. I'm hoping this is truly a recovery and not just a blip in a continuing free fall.

9:10 pm on June 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

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We've been in the adsense programme for years. Got used to a steady decline in epc almost from the start. Sometimes there's a nice upward spike, sometimes there's a sickening lurch downward. Goes with the territory.

At the moment we are looking at our stats, shaking our heads and asking 'what have we done to deserve this?'

You may have noticed I have not mentioned whether I'm talking of earnings going up or down. That's because it doesn't matter. Eventually it's going to smooth out again - or not. As publishers we can optimize, track down our hotspots, do the best we can. But in the end we have to accept - its not us who's driving this thing.

9:18 pm on June 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm having a 40% reduction in eCPM, starting on May 24. My stats have always been stable until now, strange.
9:22 am on June 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

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>>At the moment we are looking at our stats, shaking our heads and asking 'what have we done to deserve this?'

Yep, just about the same place we are! We gave them the benefit of the doubt since February and still no detectable improvement even after this supposed MFA extermination. We are now down over 60% from ANY month last year, so tomorrow it will be adios to G. We were accepted into two other PPC programs immediately, so we will be converting over the pages that are not producing (most of them) on G starting tomorrow. It's a pain in the butt, and in general G had been really good to us over the last couple years, but it just is not working out any more.

12:42 pm on June 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Amidst all the doom and gloom, I cannot believe the spikes I have been seeing over the last ten days. I rather doubt it will continue, but I have never seen AS earnings as high as this. I'm sure I am not the only one seeing this kind of thing right now.
1:05 pm on June 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

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My 2 cents..
Advertisers now have Placement Performance Report which lets them decide where their ads are performing the best and where they are losing money. So MFA/ARB will be filtered by Advertisers as well. I guess, genuine content creators should not have any problem.

Coming to Domain Advertising services such as SEDO - EPC is down from 0.104 to 0.053 this month :-)

Also, some Advertisers will be tempted to try Panama, but I am not very satisifed with their targeting and I believe Google will remain in control, atleast for few more quarters.

1:42 pm on June 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

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40%+ raise (EPC) for over a week. Holding steady.

Don't ask me why or how. Could be any number of reasons or a combination thereof.

No guarantee this will continue through the week let alone forever. EPC was once this high for a while, then dropped. But the rise this time was not gradual; it just went up like a rocket.

Many of the same advertisers as before, but many are gone, too, presumably cut by Google in Purge 1.0.

p/g

2:00 pm on June 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Our two largest properties have seen a doubling of epc across the board with substantially better ad inventories.

I suspect as has been mentioned several times on this board by myself and several others this year that those who have converting traffic and those who do not will be clearly defined over this year.

We are without a doubt being targetted by advertisers who can more easily see that our properties and inventory convert and the trend is showing no signs of stopping. We actually are approaching december 2003 epc levels but now we have 20 times the traffic:)

7:15 pm on June 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

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No freefall here, rather a slight improvement, especially with regards to EPC. The data sample is too small though to draw any final conclusions.
8:12 pm on June 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Roger that here.
After a BAD beginning of the month, I'm hitting the goals now I had laid out for me for NEXT month. The turning point here seemed to be around the 15th.
CTR is still down, but earnings are up.
I will pray the trend continues.
1:57 am on June 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm with Ronin and Potential geek. Absolutely suberb earnings at a consistent level I thought I would never see again - it's across all channels. Is it the ebay war with Google, the dropping of arbitrage sites, the buffy update bringing better (or worse?) targeted traffic? Hell, maybe Google reset my smart pricing.

I have no idea but definitely went up in 2 two steps this month to eCPMs harking back to 2-3 years ago. Sadly, I have no idea why or how long it will last or how to keep it at that level, but it stands out.

2:52 am on June 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'd love to DMCA these guys but I guess the 'fair use' theory prevents me from being able to do it.

Don't sell yourself short. There's a lot of misinformation out there about "fair use" by people who have never read what the copyright office has to say about it but want the term to be in their favor when they go around stealing content.

FarmBoy

4:52 am on June 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I've seen greater high/low swings this month than I have during any other month since I joined Adsense. The lows are as low as I've ever seen and the highs, while nowhere near all-time highs, are reminiscent of early 2006 levels, which were pretty sweet. It's been a slightly tense month, wondering what will happen next, but by now even these blatant mood swings have developed a sort of consistency. Predictable chaos.

Something interesting I've noted and that I can add to the long list of AS anomalies I'll never have enough information to understand... Historically speaking, I've always had a strong eCPM on weekends, much stronger than I see during the week. Ditto for holidays. I've charted an average 20% increase in eCPM on those days as opposed to weekdays. The reduction in traffic I see during weekends, advertisers turning their campaigns on and off, etc.. all of this contributes to eCPM movement, yet I'm convinced something else has been at work here too. Some of the weekend spikes I used to see were that significant. In the past, my weekend earnings have remained consistent with my weekday earnings, in spite of much less traffic. This month I've seen a reversal of that long-time trend and now weekend eCPM is falling to less than weekday eCPM. I'm sure it means squat but since I had nothing better to contribute to this thread I thought I'd throw it out there.

With all the ups and downs this month has seen (the most volatile yet), I'm still on pace to match my recent monthly average earnings. The road I'm taking to get there is quite a bit different than the road I took last month, but the bottom line is going to be, looks like it's going to be, the same.

2:17 am on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Today is going to be the best day of the month, so far. I've had really deep bottoms and not much in term of drama in any metric, though I think it's because my niche is so traditionally slow-reacting and near the low end (hey, somebody's got to inhabit the basement). Believe me, if I see significant gains, there are going to be a lot of REALLY happy webmasters out there.

I've been really patient, reserving judgement on Google with their attempt at a purge of Arb/MFA. I'm hoping the ship is entering the port here. I figure my earnings ought to be double what they've averaged over the past 2 years if the bad element is eliminated from AS/AW. We'll see.

9:52 am on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Update a couple of weeks after the initial fall and my average EPC has recovered however not to previous levels:-(

8-21 June compared to:

1-7 June: -15.18%
All 2007: - 7.63%

Interestingly my CTR is also down 6.36% compared to all year metrics.

What is more disturbing is that compared to the same period 2006:

eCPM -32.3%
CTR -24.29%

Visitor numbers up, page impressions up.

How long before I start paying Google?

Has the AdSense novelty factor for Joe Surfer worn off after 4 years?

Our B&M businesses are doing fine, in fact, extremely well and we are seeing a record number of enquiries and large contract order placements.

I'm going to throw in this question:

My widgets do not lend themselves to courier/parcel delivery services simply because of their bulk and weight, I guess there are many products like this, is it possible that Joe Surfer is now beginning to realise that the Internet cannot economically and efficiently supply such widgets unless bought in commercial bulk quantities and possibly, for my widgets, many only research the products and now not bother clicking since they know, or have been told, it's not practical?

Therefore when they see a Google Ad for a possible supplier 500-1,000 miles away they just don't bother?

It's only an educated guess but maybe plausible?

11:06 am on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I think you're correct about the postage. For bulky items I get them from a store without thinking about buying through the internet. Just being in when the postman arrives is pain enough never mind being charged the earth for delivery.
4:44 pm on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Updating my previous message, the 21st was the highest-earnings day of June for me. However, today, the 22nd, I'm showing Page eCPM at the lowest level I've ever seen, ever in my 2+ years with AS. Abysmal, and ridiculous, less than one would get with a really terrible CPM campaign. Unbelievable...

Either Google has some serious reporting issues going on, or they're keeping most of the money for themselves.

I usually get between .06 and .14 per click, today, it's less than .02.

When, when, when are they going to come clean and fix this nonsense? The up-down cycle is like living with an abusive spouse. It ain't pretty.

5:19 pm on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I think there are some serious changes going on at Google.

-CPC way up for some, way down for others
-Very bad targetting (for the first time in
3 years for me)
-Very slow website and site diagnostics not working
-The recent arbitrage measures

What's next?

6:16 pm on June 22, 2007 (gmt 0)

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HuskyPup... you have StickyMail

Chapman-

6:37 am on June 26, 2007 (gmt 0)

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A little update: CPC is still way down, but getting a little better. Compared to the same period last year, my earnings are 25% down and eCPM is 50% down.
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