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AdSense EPC Going Into Freefall!

Since June 8th 2007

   
5:56 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)



I am beginning to wonder whether this has anything to do with the MFA/ARB clampdown?

Since June 8th my EPC has dropped 14.39%, my eCPM by 12.21% and comparing Monday 4th v Monday 11th my earnings were down 24.63% with the same number of clicks.

This is a bit too co-incidental for my way of thinking.

No my trade is not on holiday this is a 12 month of the year business generally with few fluctuations.

Yes there seem to be plenty of quality advertisers however I am now seeing a lot of "directory type" sites in AdLinks and they were never there before and checking through the SERPs advertising they are cropping up in the first few pages.

Certainly something significant is happening so far as my sites are concerned and if I have a few more days of this then I shall remove my AdLinks to see if that stops the rot.

Is anyone else seeing similar.

9:11 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I suggest you filter all the "directory" sites because they are the arb sites but using adwords/other for their trade. I do, and my filter is full again sadly but income is solidly up by 30 to 40 percent over 15 or so hobby sites.
10:58 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



I am seeing a resurgence of MFA's/arb sites and coincidently the vastly improved performance that started the past couple of weeks or so, is falling back down to towards the 2007 pits. Unless Google culls ALL arb and MFA sites from Adsense and the ADWORDS side, this problem will continue to plague us.

[edited by: Scurramunga at 11:00 pm (utc) on June 12, 2007]

11:42 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I had been about 10% up for the last week, until today, when it plunged to one of the lowest ever ecpm's. This on a day when I expect a good level.
11:44 pm on Jun 12, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I decided to block all sites that don't have a product or service right on their site. These include MFAs and fake directories & fake comparison sites - about 100 in all.

EPC is improving after a slight decline when google had to reshuffle the ads on my site.

CTR is down about 10 pct I think because the regular adwords folks don't write copy that is as good as the arb folks. Although I also moved a few ads out of the hotspot so as to be a better adsense citizen.

12:14 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator martinibuster is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



No, not seeing similar. It's nothing across the board, etc.
12:38 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



On the contrary, my revenue has shot up. My CPM flew up, and my CPC is up significantly.
12:48 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)



After nearly 4 years of very successful AdSense we're ripping it off many, many sites since it is collapsing just as we watch the hourly figures!

Obviously we've already contacted AdSense to ascertain if there are any issues at their end meanwhile we are creating a direct ad campaign to our global subscriber base.

And after the first seven days of June the new regime looked so promising...oh dear!

9:54 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)



Update

So how did the actual EPC (not eCPM) for 12th June fare in comparison?

8-11 June : -26.05%
1-11 June : -32.69%
1-7 June : -34.60%
All May : - 28.17%
All 2007 : -28.68%

I don't know about anyone else but that seems a pretty dramatic reduction.

Interestingly I am also seeing duplicate ads on my sites which I never recall having done so before.

ann

10:01 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ann is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



And it's just beginning! Put your feet firmly in the stirrups, grab a handful of mane and hang on for dear life, it's gonna be a bumpy ride. :)

This is what we asked for so just ride it out!

Ann

10:13 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)



And it's just beginning!

You're reckoning it's a June 1st/8th fallout too?

This would be extremely strange for my industry since we've had very, very little MFA/ARB stuff.

I'm hoping the AdSense team come back to me asap with an explanation of some kind, doubtful but one never knows!

11:33 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I am usually wary of thinking something has happened, as odd blips occur all the time. But this time round I am very much in the "me to" camp. Things have been painful since the 8th.
11:55 am on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member hobbs is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



>creating a direct ad campaign to our global subscriber base

The best money is in that direction
getting a feeling you are neither Husky nor a Pup!

12:19 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)



I've had a very nice response from the AdSense team this morning asking me for more details of the ad duplication I've seen and to keep monitoring and compare historical data and I've already sent them those details.

Something's gone awry for me, heaven's knows what, and I hope the issue is resolved pretty quick since if it were to spread to other publishers this thread will become very long!

ann

12:21 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ann is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



I think it will be more dramatic ups and downs than some counted on, lasting for longer periods of time as the shakeout continues.

You really don't think you can predate a Google event with the small amount of Intel we get from them.

Me? I'm ready for a happening and we should all just gear up (or down) and wait the storm out.

Ann

1:35 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



My earnings are rocketing.
I saw my stats yesterday evening and my jaw hit the floor.
2:16 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



We're seeing our worst EPC levels and earnings in two years despite continually trimming underperforming pages, but...

Summer is always slow anyway. I've been lax about keeping the MFA/directory sites out of the filter because I got sick of it and am concentrating on our main business.

However, there is the possibility that our two month experiment with the PPA Beta has bitten us on the behind. While miserable PPA sell-through doesn't impact the EPC displayed for the account, it's possible that it does impact the quality score for the site in some way.

I finally removed all our PPA ads last week so we'll see if there's any difference. Yesterday was our best day of June so far, just about the June 2006 average.

2:22 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



I think it's just bumpy. This is my peak season, and:

Friday was great
Saturday was below average
Sunday the best day of the year so far
Monday just under Sunday
Yesterday was a disaster.

Today's already done better than the last three put together, but my stats have been stuck for over an hour.

But that's the nature of the roller coaster we hopped on. Me, I throw my arms up and scream. It's all you can do.

2:38 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)



This has been a good month for me (something I'd expect, given my topic).

For many topics, summer is traditionally slow. You can see that here at Webmaster World, where the forums seem to be less active than they were even a few weeks ago.

2:42 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



I think it's just bumpy. This is my peak season, and:

I too think it's just bumpy. This is my OFF season, and:

Friday was great
Friday was horrible!
Saturday was below average
Saturday was above average.
Sunday the best day of the year so far
Sunday the worst day of the year so far!
Monday just under Sunday
Monday was about average.
Yesterday was a disaster.
Yesterday was great.

Today's already done better than the last three put together,

Seeing the same here as well!

Chapman

[edited by: Chapman at 2:46 pm (utc) on June 13, 2007]

4:13 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



One of us must be in Bizarro World, Chapman, but I'm not sure which...

ann

4:34 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ann is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



Mine has also been painful since the eighth but today it looks a little better...hope it hangs on. :)

Ann

4:57 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



One of us must be in Bizarro World, Chapman, but I'm not sure which...

"Bizarro World"... I use that phrase quite a bit. In any event, I'm sure it's me... usually is!

Chapman

6:42 pm on Jun 13, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I've gone into a freefall today. Epc down by 80% across a variety of sites and topics. I suppose it could be Smartpricing?
6:13 pm on Jun 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



My earnings have rocketed up since June 11-12 (Monday-Tuesday), almost 2x the EPC as usual today! I don't know why and I expect it to stop any time, but it's happening on my both my (semi-related) websites and I'll take it as long as I can get it! Strange that others are seeing a big decline at the same time.

[edited by: HBird at 6:14 pm (utc) on June 14, 2007]

8:15 pm on Jun 14, 2007 (gmt 0)



Wednesday was still considerably below average earnings however today the EPC so far has returned to normal levels.

Which dial did they twist this time?

8:23 pm on Jun 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I've heard many people report that Thurs seems to be algo-change-day or Smart-pricing-takes-effect-day whichever you believe in. Personally ours usually seems to switch on Saturdays.

We've been getting the duplicate ads for almost a year, and we told G then, (especially since it used to be somewhere in the TOS that you sould not display identical ads on the same page, and THEY were causing it) but to no avail. It seemed to start when we started using google-ad-region. I'm guessing you're using it too. We just started removing the extra ad blocks since they were obviously redundant and seldom got any additional clicks.

I had one interesting observation the last couple days. Our earnings have been down since Feb right around the time we started noticing something new. Seemed that ads on all pages account-wide or at least site-wide were leaning towards two particular sub-topics. These two topics were those, which in our channel level reports had the overall highest CPM compared to other pages, but are in a relatively narrow topic which does not necessarily appeal to most of the rest of our site. However while the ads did very well CPM-wise, by virtue of either high CTR or high PPC, ON the pages where they were APPROPRIATE, they did NOT do so well on the rest of the site. Since they were not applicable to the other pages, they tended not to get clicked. More of them were of the lower PPC variety, so even when they were clicked, they tended to lower the overal CPM of the pages they were now on inappropriately.
For example, say the site was about all different power tools (our actual case couldn't be further from that topic), with a single page on various jackhammer bits, and another single page on electric screwdrivers. Ads for electric screwdrivers get a nice 35% CTR on their page and jackhammer bits get a lower CTR but since they have a much higher PPC still get a very nice CPM for on their page. The electric screwdriver page, in this example, is our most popular entry point and a #1 for it's keyword phrase on G, but has a relatively low PPC of only .10. But, becasue of the high CTR we wind up with a hefty $35.00 CPM there. The jackhammer bits page is relatively low traffic, but has a decent CTR and a very nice $1.50 PPC, so it winds up with probably a CPM of $85.00. Yet when those same ads start bombarding the radial saw pages, the electric drill pages and even the precision lathe pages, they get relatively no interest and the CPM on those pages has dropped below $2.00 due to the much lower average CTR. Our overall CPM, PPC and Overall earnings dropped to about 1/2.

Then just the other day I decided to try removing the ads just from those two offending pages, totally. It only took about 12 hours and suddenly all the ads went back to the way they used to be a year ago in happier times and our CPM and PPC skyrocketed almost back to the previous levels! I've replaced the ads now (they were rather lucrative in themselves) to see what happens.

I'm begining to think there has been a new flawed algorithm added with good intentions, but bad results, that is doing this and is causing a lot of advertisers earnings to fall. Perhaps it works very well for some types of sites (perhaps ones where the entire site is very focused and ads are interchangable across all topics), but not for slightly more diverse sites like ours, where visitors viewing one part of the site are not interested in ads from another part!

9:13 pm on Jun 14, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member netmeg is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



google-ad-region

I'm not familiar with this?

12:33 pm on Jun 15, 2007 (gmt 0)



I'm wondering now if it was a total lack of quality ad inventory since yesterday returned to almost normal levels with earnings being 90% of an average Thursday however Page Impression compared to my logs were a good 15% less than I would have expected.

This, however, does not explain the PI metrics appearing normal the rest of the week!

Could there have been so many advertisers not keeping their accounts up-to-date all at the same time?

11:05 am on Jun 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member




System: The following 9 messages were spliced on to this thread from: http://www.webmasterworld.com/google_adsense/3368457.htm [webmasterworld.com] by martinibuster - 9:01 am on June 15, 2007 (utc -8)


Hi

clicks, traffic remains the same. but the revenues are going down about %50-60

im thinking to use some other ad network, are many people thinking to do the same?

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