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I have come to believe the 500+ updates per year - which translates to an average of 1.36 per day - is more about obfuscating the algorithm (to SEOs, competitors, possibly even government regulators) than about delivering the best results.
I'm suggesting that a minority of those updates are about users, and the rest are just shaking stuff up in ways that won't hurt revenue, but will confuse SEOs and anyone else seeking to decode the algo.
your guess is as good as mine
If I'm right, that means there just won't be any further deciphering of these algo updates - all 500 of 'em. When they released Penguin, they warned SEOs they would never manage to backward engineer it. The best way to keep someone from backward engineering something is to throw in statistical outliers ("false positives" or "false negatives") that cause the update to "not make sense" to humans.
That might make sense if Google felt a need to obfuscate, but is obfuscation really necessary with so many variables in the mix? I'd guess that the algorithm and its filters would remain inscrutable with or without random juggling, but still, your guess is as good as mine.
Who's to say Google doesn't know that I'm a webmaster and simply throws me a curve ball in the SERPs every time I search
Because you use proxies and try out searches similar to those in your server logs on more than one computer?
the winners out there at least amongst my clients are the ones that don't concentrate on Google
Constant, unpredictable change.
this does not explain why are so many silly and stupid pages are pn page #1. You canīt tell me that this pages are popular. Maybe black hatīs have find a way to control this.
Yeah, but how do you make 500 sensible, carefully measured "updates to the algo" per year with no other consideration but making users happy?
I'm also seeing an increasing amount of news articles
i canīt see this trend
I'm also seeing an increasing amount of news articles about the product interspersed with the commercial results in these SERPs.