No Penguin 2.0 Update - Matt Cutts Confirmation 2013-05-10

[totalodds]

I've just had confirmation from Google's distinguished engineer Matt Cutts via Twitter;

@mrjamiedodd nope, no new Penguin update this week.

@mrjamiedodd we do expect to roll out Penguin 2.0 (next generation of Penguin) sometime in the next few weeks though.

[edited by: tedster at 7:06 pm (utc) on May 10, 2013]
[edit reason] edit personal link [/edit]

[tedster]

Thanks for the report, totalodds. Lot's of people are waiting for this and lots can see that something is going on right now. A good time for close study, I'd say.

[engine]

Thanks, yes, agreed, there's something brewing and i'm sure they are testing.

[BeeDeeDubbleU]

Perhaps a reverse opf last April? Chance would be a fine thing!

[Whitey]

Penguin 2.0 Or Penguin 4?

That leads to Penguin. This is how those have gone, so far:
•Penguin 1: April 24, 2012 (3.1% queries affected)
•Penguin 2: May 26, 2012 (less than 0.1%)
•Penguin 3: Oct. 5, 2012 (0.3%)

Matt Cutts :
@dannysullivan might want to downgrade previous Penguin 2 and 3 to Penguin 1.1 and 1.2. Upcoming release is the true 2.0.
[searchengineland.com...]
So what is 1.1 and 1.2 versus the upcoming "true" update 2.0?

Is it the scale of the upcoming update?

[netmeg]

Judging from the back and forth between Matt and Danny on Twitter, it sounds like Google numbers them with regards to scale/impact, and Danny (SEland) numbers them chronologically.

[spunkle]

fingers crossed :)

thanks for the update.

[Whitey]

There's some commentary out there about where Google might have been preparing to tighten up Penguin :

- Percentage of spammy links to be reduced dramatically
- EMD link ratios to be reduced
- other ?

I'm not sure where this puts the unnatural links notices, and the use of the disavow tool into webmasters tidy up strategies. Clearly there were concerns about moving too soon, rather than waiting, due to the "damned if you do" versus "damned if you don't" scenario.

Surely if Google has identified those links, the update is going to take those into account.

[TheOptimizationIdiot]

So what is 1.1 and 1.2 versus the upcoming "true" update 2.0?

Like software versions.

Basically/Generally:
V.N+ Change = Upgrades or fixes to the "features" currently included + (possibly) minor additions.

V+.0 Change = New "features" added for the 1st time.

So, the 1st 3 Penguin updates/reruns were "essentially the same thing, improved (or run again)", but the next one will include a "major new addition(s)" to Penguin.

@dannysullivan might want to downgrade previous Penguin 2 and 3 to Penguin 1.1 and 1.2. Upcoming release is the true 2.0.

That tweet says it's more than "tightening up" they're doing.

[Whitey]

Looks to me that this is one more ratchet attempt to advance the pruning of anything that isn't brand, local, expert or niche.

[JesterMagic]

Great... I hope the next Penguin update clears things up a bit and doesn't create more problems.

BTW what does "EMD link ratios to be reduced" mean exactly? (I know what EMD means but not the link ratios comment)

[TheOptimizationIdiot]

Can you cite the comment please? Thanks

[Str82u]

@totalodds - thanks for sharing. Penguin 2.0 was probably what MC was referring to when he announced that G was packing Panda into the everyday algo.

[TheOptimizationIdiot]

Not sure I follow str82u? Panda's already run pre-index creation. Penguin 2.0 is expected in the next few weeks. Not sure I'm seeing how they can be the same thing. Am I missing something? (It's entirely possible and known to happen on occasion.)

[Str82u]

@TOI - I was referring to the past ("everflux") announcement that Panda was going into the regular algorithm, MC said then that another Penguin was coming later in the year, Penguin 2.0 is what they are calling it I assume.

[Whitey]

- EMD link ratios to be reduced

Should have read " Exact match anchor text " ratios to be reduced.

The theories put around are that Google has been bringing it's tolerance thresholds down for "good" versus "bad" links and that the next update will lower those significantly. I guess it's a no brainer. Things are pretty transparent about what Google is intent on targeting even if the technicalities are somewhat obscure.

[indyank]

- EMD link ratios to be reduced

Who made that remark? is there any reference?

[chrisv1963]

Thanks, yes, agreed, there's something brewing and i'm sure they are testing.

You might be right about the test. My main website benefitted greatly from last year's Penguin and the last few days traffic suddenly dropped back to pre-penguin numbers.

[JesterMagic]

@Whitey - So do you mean exact match anchor text ratios which are the same as the domain only or for any anchor text that is the same independent of what the domain name is?

[turbocharged]

Penguin 2.0 is expected to be released in the next few weeks according to what Matt Cutts tweeted on 5/10/2013.

Source: [twitter.com...]

[thms]

The theories put around are that Google has been bringing it's tolerance thresholds down for "good" versus "bad" links and that the next update will lower those significantly. I guess it's a no brainer. Things are pretty transparent about what Google is intent on targeting even if the technicalities are somewhat obscure.

this is pure speculation.. there are a lot of no brainers that Google never implements..

[ColourOfSpring]

The theories put around are that Google has been bringing it's tolerance thresholds down for "good" versus "bad" links and that the next update will lower those significantly. I guess it's a no brainer. Things are pretty transparent about what Google is intent on targeting even if the technicalities are somewhat obscure.

Just to be clear - does this theory mean that Google would have a lower tolerance to exact match anchors? Wouldn't this make negative SEO even easier? If Google have an even lower tolerance for exact match anchors, just throw some exact match anchors at the competition. If ranking your own site is now a riddle wrapped up in an enigma (which it seems to be becoming more and more), then you can at least just take out a few of the weaker (non-big-brand) ranking sites by trashing their link profile.

[ColourOfSpring]

On Penguin 2.0 in general, my thoughts are that if this really hits off-page signals even harder, then this could really be the defining moment of the internet - where most small businesses decide it's simply not worth it to setup their own e-commerce site. That feeling is already creeping into the small business sector. There's been a LOT of churn online in the last 12 months. Companies losing business, or their web-presence via their own site (and "sheltering" on Facebook or selling on Amazon/eBay). Off-page signals always hit smaller companies harder. Big brands can weather those storms, if they're affected at all. The only way to sell will be on Amazon / eBay / CraigsList or be a big brand. "Buying stuff" online will be about buying from big brands via Google or small companies via the big platforms. The web is already shrinking, and it will shrink even faster. Not that Amazon and eBay are great places to sell - the big platforms are already putting their own squeeze on small business too with increased fees, and Amazon like to compete with small sellers. I'd love to be wrong here, but that's the direction we've been moving in during the last 12 months - Penguin 2.0 will likely accelerate this unless Google change direction (share price at $800+, it seems Google are doing well out of their changes).

[turbocharged]

On Penguin 2.0 in general, my thoughts are that if this really hits off-page signals even harder, then this could really be the defining moment of the internet - where most small businesses decide it's simply not worth it to setup their own e-commerce site.

I would have to agree, to a point. Small businesses would still continue to build their presences online, at a far slower pace, but their expectations of receiving organic traffic will have to be tempered. Those in the web design and SEO industry will have to put forth a better effort to educate their clients that the "build it and they will come" philosophy does not apply.

I suspect that any future updates will reinforce large brands by giving them even better placement in the serps. When Google stated that they were no longer going to be publicly announcing algorithm updates, I got the impression that they did so in preparation for taking a lot of heat in the future from small businesses that were going to be pushed out of the competition.

There is a lot of chatter on forums about small businesses gradually losing traffic over the last year. Some have pointed out that as these sites lost traffic, those in Google's lobbying group (Internet Association) have gained a significant amount of traffic. When I looked at this at the time, 8 of the 10 top benefactors of organic traffic from Google were members of their lobbying group.

[Whitey]

@indyank / JesterMagic - These references wouldn't be permitted here, but there's a lot of commentary on major SEO blogs and some studys. Put a few keywords into search and plenty should come up, including the "must do" lists.

There was also a press release here on a study which triggered a lot of follow up articles : [prweb.com...]

I've no idea of the accuracy of the information, but the giste of articles is that Google has a trend for lowering it's tolerances and guidance on dumbing down spammy link related issues, both internal and external.

[BeeDeeDubbleU]

I think that Google has a trend for doing things that make more money for Google. The fact that some of these things make them appear benevolent to the general public is not accidental. They are deliberately squeezing the smaller businesses by trying to ensure that Adwords is the only way for them to go.

[ColourOfSpring]

Small businesses would still continue to build their presences online, at a far slower pace, but their expectations of receiving organic traffic will have to be tempered. Those in the web design and SEO industry will have to put forth a better effort to educate their clients that the "build it and they will come" philosophy does not apply.

turbocharged, I hope you're right (I'll take any crumbs of comfort). I also think the web design / SEO industry is going to be about offering very low cost solutions (because small businesses will have low expectations). A web presence will have to augment something more substantial offline. Still - I think penguin 2.0 is going to decimate these industries (web dev/SEO) in my opinion. Many SMBs will simply give up on a web presence I believe. There's a tipping point where effort expended is far greater than rewards recouped. A smart business knows when to quit.

When Penguin 1.0 rolled out in April 2012, the reaction from web developers / SEO was largely positive : OK, no problem, we will perfect our coversion rates and also seek traffic from elsewhere, and at the same time try to get in the good books of Google. 12 months later, and from ALL of the sources I read (and I read a lot), and from my own clients, there's a mood of defeat in the small-to-medium business sector. All those alternative traffic streams haven't really worked out for most companies. We never did get in the good books of Google. We did improve our conversion rates though - shame there's only a trickle of traffic. It's not just direct feedback I read and what my clients tell me, it's the web design companies who've gone bust that I know about, the URL churn that's REALLY increased in the last 12 months. It's the crazy 301 redirects and website rebrands I've seen - there's been a lot of panicking. Confidence is super-low. I don't think I need to spell it out anymore. I think there's 3 ways this can go:-

1. Penguin 2.0 unleashes hell on SMBs - we go from bad to worse. This would be as close to SMB armageddon as you're going to see. Zero confidence to succeed online without a sisyphean effort and a ton of luck on your side. This is I believe the "tipping point".
2. Penguin 2.0 is actually a roll-out of some "everflux" Penguin - in which case it will probably continue the death by a 1000 cuts many of us have been enduring regardless of our actions.
3. Penguin 2.0 is more forgiving of its predecessor - SMBs start to see a bit of love from Google. Confidence amongst SMBs skyrockets, big brands still get their share of traffic as they've always done. A whole new web opens up to Google searchers that they appreciate - all is right with the world.

Except I just don't see 3) happening. Google's shareholders like the way things have been going since April 2012. Share price is record high, no way they're going to change the direction.

[turbocharged]

Still - I think penguin 2.0 is going to decimate these industries (web dev/SEO) in my opinion.

The potential certainly exists for this and lower spending over the last year by small businesses on the web design services that my company offers may be the start of a long-term trend. Reduced gains from optimization services may also cause these companies to conserve and/or reallocate these budgets to other areas that provide a great ROI. If half the front page of the serps are ads and major brands, it's hard to believe any amount of onsite or offsite SEO will benefit certain industries (ie. can't rank organically above paid ads).

Many SMBs will simply give up on a web presence I believe.

Some certainly will. But others, as I am seeing now, are spending more on offline advertising (television, print, etc.). If Google shuts out small businesses from the serps, in favor of large brands, some businesses will continue to explore/expand other methods and locations (ie. Facebook). Some will also increase their PPC advertising budgets, but I am seeing a lot of resistance from small businesses that are competing with the same big corporations in PPC that now dominate organic search. PPC is not my area of expertise, but this is what I am hearing when talking with clients.

Although our web design business saw a spike in sales to fix onpage issues (over optimization), this dropped off rather quickly. Net sales are much lower than they were this time last year. Some of this can be blamed on other factors though (poor economy).

[dethfire]

There's a tipping point where effort expended is far greater than rewards recouped. A smart business knows when to quit.

I've been thinking about this lately. I'm almost feeling like giving up on the seo and social media rat race. I spend so much time trying to stay ahead and current that I get very little actual business tasks done and I don't have the money to hire ppl.

[tedster]

I was just reviewing the original discussions about Panda from 2011. I had completely forgotten the originally stated target - lowering the visibility of "Content Farms" in the SERPs, like eHow etc. I think I'm ging to do a good bit more of this two-year old study. After all, an "update" is just an attempt to tweak the originally results into better shape.