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Using Adsense CPC/CTR values to weight changes in organic traffic?

6:31 pm on Oct 9, 2012 (gmt 0)

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Low traffic in Google, higher bids, high traffic in G. lower bids and strictier rules for validating clicks.

The idea is to find answer for this simple question: was it a bad day for Google or was my website hit by some ranking/algo changes?
7:11 pm on Oct 9, 2012 (gmt 0)

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Have you tried to correlate that data? If so, what did you discover?

I've poked around with it from time to time, but I never could come up with any strong relationships at all, not even with a big pile of data. YMMV, of course - I'm very interested in the topic when it's discussed in a data-driven fashion. (Anyone can put tinfoil on their head ;) )
8:45 pm on Oct 9, 2012 (gmt 0)

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What data should you compare? Then I will have a look.
12:52 am on Oct 28, 2012 (gmt 0)

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adsense CPC seems to be a good indicator,
compare adsense CPC to your organic search visits, however compare values only from same day of week

less traffic and lower CPC may mean an update you just suffered from, because when CPC is low it may mean that it was a bad day for you, not for google, which is still able to provide enough impressions for advertisers

less traffic and higher CPC means bad day for google(possible reason: good weather or holidays) and most likely not an algo update

more traffic, lower CPC = good day for google
more traffic, higher CPC = you may have benefited from brand new algo update

other indicator is CTR, on good traffic days for google, ad daily budgets are used very fast and CTR goes down, because your visitors start to get poorly targeted ads,
this applies especialy to long tail

think about constant amount of money available to win in google ad system every day, global ad impressions number and your share in this number, when your share changes it means an algo update

that's how I see it and that's why I don't care about frequent +/- ~20% changes in traffic. ;)

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