Why would I pay money for a Google TV box when I can just watch streaming movies online for free? This si what the demographic is now doing. By the way, my father (55 years old) figured out how to run a free streaming site just fine on his monitor or TV. it's extremely easy to plug in a cable from the computer to the TV. HDMI comes up on most screens now as soon as its plugged in, so no messing around with software or windows desktop manager is required. And yes almost everyone knows how to use HDMI. Plug in the cable.
I think that with any product Google does, it gets hyped up and sure people may buy it. But why bother - just watch free movies. Unless something gets done about those websites, people will just use the alternative. If you dont watch free streaming sites then maybe you think Google TV will be a hit. If you watch them you know this to be false until someone like the RIAA goes and gets all these sites shut down.
By the way, here's an idea. Google tends to log all their search engine queries when they move to a new market. Yes they're going to give you ads. They're also going to take all the search queries, compile them, and see which shows people look for the most. Then they have a very, very keen concept of what areas of the TV industry are hot, hot hot. Google will know more about Hollywood then Brad Pitt overnight. Then they can compete in the celeb/Hollywood sectors extremely easily with a huge advantage, they can run gossip mags; they can use the data to run their own movie theaters if they want, knowing what will be popular; they can use the data to optimize any celeb/movie/popular culture websites they want, they can attract new advertisers in these secors; its a whole win win situation for Google as long as some people buy the box and use it, they could even offer the service and the box for free just to gain this extremely powerful, usable data on people.
Hey, here's a thought - How does Google or any big company find out what the youth market is doing? Find out what movies and TV shows they watch. And suddenly you're in on popular culture with the kids, you know what they like, what theyre interested in, and how to advertise for them. Market cracked; move onto the next one. This is what a big multi billion companies do!
At the same time if Google can get this as an application onto the 360 and partner with Xbox Live it would do well. We know that wont happen though, because G and Msft cant seem to work out too many deals on much, but if it wound up on any of the three gaming consoles it would do well. Theres a lot of money that Microsoft is making on Xbox Live from users who pay money to download TV shows and videos. So there is two sides to the coin.
[edited by: markis00 at 6:57 am (utc) on May 23, 2010]