Goog Continues to Insist the Desktop is a Deadend Platform

[Brett_Tabke]

I understand their point of the growing importance of Mobile, but their message is cryptic and suspect. Googles talks on mobile sound more like a threat than a promise.

[siliconrepublic.com...]

“In three years time, desktops will be irrelevant. In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs,” Herlihy told a baffled audience, echoing comments by Google CEO Eric Schmidt at the recent GSM Association Mobile World Congress 2010 that everything the company will do going forward will be via a mobile lens, centring on the cloud, computing and connectivity.

Google believes that in three years or so desktops will give way to mobile as the primary screen from which most people will consume information and entertainment. That’s according to Google Europe boss John Herlihy who said that smart phones enhance Google’s mission to make information universal.

[JS_Harris]

I disagree. I find convenience in using a mobile device to look something up but if I can get desktop access instead I would do so. For any real website work/coding I would never use a mobile device.

[J_RaD]

this is silly talk.

google just beats the drum because they want to control everything, they want people only using google devices and google services blha blhablh the more time goes on the more out of touch they become.

their talk on computers not google centered is maniacal.

mobile device, netbook, desktop, home server... they all live in a happy family and all have their own useage one can't replace the other because they all do their own thing better.

Tell google to remove all their employees desktop computers and give them an android phone...we'll see how much work gets done in that place, and we'll see how everyones hands look in 3 years.

[imbckagn]

I can almost guarantee Google is going to come out with a mobile device they think will replace the desktop. They start putting this in peoples head now to get them brainwashed to buy it.

No way in hell the desktop will be obsolete. Mobile devices are good for some things but just not practical for large work loads.

[J_RaD]

the gpad :-P

[weeks]

From a presentation I heard yesterday on a major non-tech corporate firm I deal with (sub-contractor) is moving and what our local government is doing, tech-wise, I think there is something to Mr. Schmidt's projections.

The big question is, so what?

Is this much ado about nothing, or will it cause a shift in consumer behavior? How? In which markets?

News is going to be impacted in a big way. That's easy to see. Books? OK. Music? Already happened.

But, what about online purchases of widgets? And thing-a-of-bobs?

How will "no desktop" impact WW? The answer here is clear: Brett is going to have to start paying us.

[freejung]

Mobile access and browsing are great and all, but I don't see how typing on a small keyboard is ever going to be an adequate substitute for the real thing.

Maybe we'll just plug normal keyboards into our cell phones when we want to type fast. And plug the cell phone into a monitor when we want to see things on a big screen. And plug in a mouse for browsing. And plug the phone into a local internet connection when we want a fast connection. In which case -- how is that different from a desktop with a very small footprint?

[IanKelley]

Disclaimer: didn't read the OP linked article.

I've never agreed with any of the various "desktop is dead" predictions over the years.

But lately I've been thinking...

Professionals are going to need full sized PCs for a long time to come.

But what about everyone else? My new smartphone is pretty impressive, a huge leap over my last one. A few years of technology improvements and I could see it becoming the primary computing device for the average user.

Beam the display to any available HD TV or monitor and the small screen problem is solved... and the tech for that isn't even years away.

Improved voice recognition (it's sooo close to there already) will solve the lack of a full sized keyboard in the near future.

They already have the processing and graphics power for web surfing, basic apps, and games. In fact the newer smartphones are already pushing into netbook territory in terms of processing power.

Think of where that will be in a few years, the market for smartphones being what it is.

So, again, I'm not saying professionals like WWers are going to be scrapping their full sized keyboards any time soon, but the time may be rapidy approaching where mainstream users will spend the vast majority of their computing hours on mobile devices.

I don't think the idea is far fetched at all, more like inevitable.

[zeus]

what would you call the "desktop2" of a mobile phone - and google always have a threatening sound to it when they say something about future things.

[freejung]

OK, Ian, I see your point, but basically my question is this:

If mobile devices duplicate or replace all of the functionality of a desktop -- especially if they can run a full-featured web browser -- how are they fundamentally different from a desktop, from our point of view? I'm not sure I understand the paradigm shifting aspect of this. If your phone functions like a desktop, isn't that just like having a desktop you can take with you anywhere? They have those, they're called "laptops."

So how is a sufficiently advanced mobile phone not just a very small laptop?

[nomis5]

I agree with Iankelly. For myself, and I run 15 websites, I use a laptop linked to a big screen. But I look at my 21 year old son, his mates, my partner's kids and their mates, and I see quite clearly that they are using smart phones. Forget the problems we see with using tiny keyboards - the under thirties don't see that as a problem. They value mobile access as the key advantage.

It's almost already here folks, ignore it at your own peril. The one thing which confuses me is that google and the others don't provide search results that are relevant for mobile devices when you search from a mobile.

[incrediBILL]

It's almost already here folks, ignore it at your own peril.

Exactly.

Ever since my wife and I got Androids we've spent a significant part of computing time on the Droid just because it's with us all the time.

The 30something nephew lawyer can't put his CrackBerry down for one second as he's constantly answering questions from his legal team.

No need to wait to get to a desktop to read and reply to mail, do a search, do online banking, order something, read the news or a book even, the Droid does it.

Besides, it's not about old school computer users, it's the next wave.

Android does voice very well and it's much easier to dictate and clean up a few mistakes with a handheld than it is to tap in big long paragraphs.

Don't forget virtual laser keyboards and micro-projectors exist to give access to bigger input and output devices too, lots of options abound.

Personally, why have a desktop, laptop and handheld?

The handheld just needs docking stations so you can use whatever input/output devices you want when you need them because at it's core it's just a portable multi-purpose CPU/RAM/SSD device.

Besides, try BUMPing your business card to someone at a party using a netbook and it'll look about as cool as doing the Funky Chicken on the dance floor.

[artek]

I kind of trust Steven Jobs expertise:

- in 1984, Apple introduced LISA computer with full user-friendly desktop futures and software package that was a dream for average person.

- few years ago Apple did not even have cell phone to offer, today they have one of the most successful new phone device that little by little takes over all completion.

- I think soon coming out iPad will be very convenient to search web due to nice size of the screen and may become as popular as iPhone if they price it low to make it affordable to teens. I cannot wait to get my hands on one.

[IanKelley]

So how is a sufficiently advanced mobile phone not just a very small laptop?

Right it's essentially the same thing, but a laptop you can put in your pocket, as opposed to lugging around with a shoulder strap, changes everything.

You have to get addicted to a smartphone to really understand :-)

[J_RaD]

smartphones are good COMMUNICATION devices, not good COMPUTING devices.

you think all the chip makers are going to stop making powerful desktop hardware? intel and AMD are going to stop inovating faster and faster chips? ATI and nvidia are going to close up shop because nobody needs powerful video cards?

there is alot of industry behind these "desktops" and i don't see these industries vanishing.

The handheld just needs docking stations so you can use whatever input/output devices you want when you need them because at it's core it's just a portable multi-purpose CPU/RAM/SSD device

yea a very slow one at that, if you tryed to push your phone to do desktop duty you might as well lug your old P1 out of the closet and start using it again.

Like i said the smartphone does what it does good, portable easy to use....a phone, its not a computer that is a phone too. Also the smartphone market is only a % of the total cellphone market and more people don't have smartphones that do. (but they all have computers)

So as i said before, they all live together in a happy family each serving their own purposes.

[Swanny007]

The desktop won't be "dead" IMHO. I do think mobile will overtake desktops as the primary "computing" device though. Anyone I know with a crackberry is hooked. I'm hooked on my iPhone. I still need my Mac though to archive photos onto DVD, develop and manage web sites, etc.

If it weren't for the web sites I develop I just might not need a desktop. I have a gaming console for games and I can get e-mail, web, RSS, photos, etc. with my phone already. Personally I'd rather use a desktop for most of the day but the smartphone is unbeatable when I'm traveling.

[kaled]

This is just delusional wishful thinking. Desktop PCs have a limited future but the laptop will be around in large numbers for some time yet and will never be replaced by smart phones. Also, cloud computing is largely pie-in-the-sky nonsense.

quoting the article

In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs

I've never been to Japan but the idea that an engineer will use his smart phone in preference to a desktop/laptop for research is utterly absurd. I can only assume John Herlihy read something along the lines of "In Japan more people are engaged in mobile phone development than PC development" and got the wrong end of the stick entirely!

Kaled.

[onepointone]

Fun when the smartphone addicts get old. Tiny screens and keyboards + bad vision and arthritis.

But by then the computers will probably be hardwired into our brains...

[J_RaD]

Desktop PCs have a limited future

I think they'll be around forever, there are always people with the need for fast hardware that can't be squished into a laptop. And if they arn't gone after 30+ years i don't see a reason for them to suddenly vanish.

[celgins]

Herlihy's observation is one of the most ridiculous I've heard in ages.

Even if mobile devices eventually relegate the desktop PC to an irrelevant position, it will not happen in three years.

[vivalasvegas]

Looking at my stats over 50% of people browsing my websites do so before 5pm. I suppose this means that they browse the web using the computer at the office. I don't think this will change soon (people working on a computer at the office).

[incrediBILL]

Having a bunch of computer professionals that need horsepower trying to decide what the masses will use is the folly of this particular discussion.

We need power house PCs, most people don't.

The old WebTV was a proof of that concept that many need little more than web appliances, like a wifi-enabled PS3 and a wireless keyboard, done.

I don't think desktops will vanish but what the average consumer uses today will morph into something different based on actual need, the laptop or tablet will most likely become the dominant computing device with the handheld running a close 2nd.

Smartphones are giving people a real taste of computing everywhere, computing on-the-go, in ways a laptop will never do because a traditional laptop is big, clunky, doesn't fit in your pocket, etc.

Being chained to a desk will become obsolete except for extreme power users and all that "power" people speak of needing will most likely be found in cloud computing, not on an individual desktop for the masses.

However, the masses don't need that kind of horsepower, never did except for game playing.

The masses are speaking already, smaller, more portable, netbooks and smartphones.

Video glasses are increasing in resolution which may be the solution for the small screen.

Personally, I don't even think you'll be tapping on that screen for long because you may be tapping on a virtual keyboard you see in your video glasses.

My prediction of what will drive adoption of these small devices in major numbers is the impending demise of printed editions of newspapers and magazines. People like reading on the go and when the paper products fade to obscurity they'll start toting SmartPhones or tiny tablets to read the news on the move.

[martinibuster]

>>>In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs<<<

Most research is probably everyday mundane things we do, like maps, weather, directions, phone numbers, reviews, etc. I don't think, they mean coding or programming or graphic design. As incredibill says, those aren't the things the average user is doing.

My log files indicate that an increasing amount of my site visitors are using handheld devices to access my websites.

It seems like the United States is trending toward increasing mobile web access but I'm not sure if that will translate to less home computing. Is that where devices like the iPad and kindle come in? If that's the case then perhaps there could be a shift.

[piatkow]

In Japan, most research is done today on smart phones, not PCs

First we need sufficient mobile coverage and sufficient bandwidth in each cell (UK).

I am tied to a fixed connection at home because I have no mobile signal in the house or garden at all (London green belt).
I regularly abandon attempts to use a mobile connection when visiting friends in an east London location because the network is so overloaded that connection speeds are a fraction of that given by my first dial up
modem.
Visiting my mother in her outer suburban location - good signal, no problem.

For personal use I can see a reduction in PC usage but against that there will still be a strong market for business use of a full desktop and increasingly for home use of a thin client with a traditional broadband connection.

[BillyS]

Desktops today are extremely fast and approaching the state where they can easily control a home (lights, entertainments, security...). They are far from irrelevant and will likely be the cornerstone of electronics in a home within five years.

The advancements we will see will be in portable devices like the iPad - which is really just a compromise between a laptop and mobile device.

[ponyboy96]

I don't think desktops will vanish but what the average consumer uses today will morph into something different based on actual need, the laptop or tablet will most likely become the dominant computing device with the handheld running a close 2nd.

That's exactly what I think as well. I've got a very nice desktop at home that I built and now rarely use. I prefer to use the laptop downstairs in the family room. It takes up less space and allows me to sit on the couch and spend time with family while working.

When out and about, I use my iPhone for everything else. It's just quick and easy to get information that I need now such as: find directions, read reviews, check a price, check email, etc...

I can't see a mobile phone type device replacing my laptop. have you ever tried to edit a spreadsheet on a mobile device? Very frustrating to say the least.

[zeus]

you also see now that displays getting bigger on phone and ipad is just the beginning of movable desktops

[ppc_newbie]

incrediBill:
Don't forget virtual laser keyboards and micro-projectors exist to give access to bigger input and output devices too, lots of options abound.

I was watching a commercial/tube a few weeks back about a cell phone with a built in projector. If they built in the virtual keyboard, I would have most of the things for a mobile office. Setting out on the patio at the local pub would be nice instead of being chained to the office.

But, I also have 2(datamining/graphics) super desktops that are used for business purposes. A laptop mainly for mobility around the house and physically transfering data between locations. My crackberry, is used pretty much just as phone.

So I can't see dumping them in the near future.

[ddogg]

The radio did not kill the newspaper. The TV did not kill the radio. The internet did not kill the TV. Phones are not going to kill the desktop.

[J_RaD]

Desktops today are extremely fast and approaching the state where they can easily control a home (lights, entertainments, security...). They are far from irrelevant and will likely be the cornerstone of electronics in a home within five years.

Knowing everything they can do this is my stance with it as well. There are also many many more things the adv desktop computer can do that normal users and some power users have no clue about.

The customer almost needs to be educated a little on the limitless uses of that "box"

[edited by: J_RaD at 6:08 pm (utc) on Mar 5, 2010]