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The bear is still alive and well on Wall Street

Any guesses on a "bottom"?

     

skibum

6:20 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Dow - 6700
NASDAQ - 975
S&P - 740

Mardi_Gras

6:35 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Any guesses on a "bottom"?

I think we have along way to go before P/E ratios get where they need to be. Amazon is trading at about 100 times projected 2003 earnings. I think that is insanity. If you don't look at the indexes, but just look at the fundamentals on a lot of the "most widely held," there are still a lot of overvalued stocks out there.

But people buy Amazon every day, so what do I know :)

rogerd

6:56 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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I'm not a huge Amazon bull, although I like the stuff they've done with community and intelligent suggestions. I think part of their valuation is purely speculative. However, I also think that if they HAD to be profitable right now, and took an axe to all of their new business development efforts, they probably could be. That's not based on an analysis of their financials, just a superficial look. Ultimately, I think, the question is whether anyone will pay ten cents more to Amazon for a book (or whatever) than to the cheapest guy on the web. At this point, I'd say, their best bet is to focus on 1) efficiency in processing orders and all other aspects, and 2) buying the product as well as or better than anyone else. I think web retailing will end up being completely cost-driven.

rcjordan

7:23 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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>Dow - 6700
>NASDAQ - 975

Oooo, that's scary... I was going to post Dow: 6800, NASDAQ: 1000

john316

7:47 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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It's just as hard to call a bottom as a top.

But the good news is this: Just buy somewhere between the two and you will make money.

I'd say we are somewhere in between, depending on your time horizon.

Mardi_Gras

7:50 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Just buy somewhere between the two and you will make money.

Well, at least if the market goes up from where you buy you will :)

Hunter

8:00 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Please, please, please don't try to pick a bottom, you'll just get burned. If you want to invest than you need to specifically research investments that your interested in so that you know if and when they are bargains and you don't hesitate when the time comes to act. You could also consider "dollar cost averaging" into these. If you want to trade, well that's a whole different ball game, but I can almost guarantee that the US financial markets are going to be much more tradable than "investable" for the next few years because we are headed sideways at best. Stock investors will be lucky to make 8% a year until at least 2005 IMHO. The Major US Indexes are short term oversold here but longer term we could easily hit new multi year lows.

skibum

9:34 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Agreed Hunter, we're not likely to go much of anywhere for a while.

Ya really think they are oversold? For the sake of existing investments that would be really nice but if companies start having to expense options, there are a few more rounds of accounting disclosures, and whatever else comes up, it may be that the majority of these tech companies have never made any money once options are figured in.

Even though that doesn't really change anything, it changes perception and that is more than enough to keep prices at current levels or send them lower.

Dollar cost averaging is probably a good way to go.

rcjordan

9:41 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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>Dollar cost averaging is probably a good way to go.

BOND ladders are a good way to go.

brotherhood of LAN

9:47 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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hmmm, maybe UK spam is siphoning money out the US economy, just a possible suggestion ;)

They say its a good time to buy stocks...but I don't think there is a company you can rely on out there (considering recent events in accounts)....

News today that the European banks are "taking a pounding"...I didn't pay much attention to it, but cmon, if the banks feel they are short of cash- we must be hitting bottom about now! :)

lawman

10:15 pm on Aug 2, 2002 (gmt 0)

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>>Stock investors will be lucky to make 8% a year until at least 2005 IMHO.

Lessee, at 0% inflation, that comes to 8% a year. Sounds like a good deal. I'm in. :)

lawman

Hunter

9:26 pm on Aug 4, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Ya really think they are oversold?

Just short term skibum.

Lessee, at 0% inflation, that comes to 8% a year. Sounds like a good deal. I'm in

Yeah 8% is not bad but it's nothing compared to the annual returns of the last 10 years. Also the 8% is "if your lucky".

rcjordan

9:09 pm on Aug 5, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Dow 8,043.63 -269.50 (-3.24%)
Nasdaq 1,206.01 -41.91 (-3.36%)
S&P 500 834.60 -29.64 (-3.43%)

Looks like the bear feels it's time to show those fangs again.

skibum

11:44 pm on Aug 5, 2002 (gmt 0)

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5 more days like this and we'll have reached your bottom, RC.

rcjordan

11:49 pm on Aug 5, 2002 (gmt 0)

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You know, I thought symantec should be a good play on the security fears, but it's P/E ratio says otherwise. Still, we're a smart bunch (or think we are) so what's starting to look attractive for the long-term buyer?

mivox

11:56 pm on Aug 5, 2002 (gmt 0)

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what's starting to look attractive for the long-term buyer

Real Estate or precious metals? hehehe...

Crude Oil futures? Once world oil reserves start to go downhill, prices will go up. On that note, so will the value of companies making significant investments in alternative energy R&D.

Mardi_Gras

12:01 am on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Health care. Aging baby boomers are going to eat up health care services - Could mean lots of income - if only the providers can hold down costs.

Death care (not to be morbid) - similar growth potential. Although the stock of one of the biggies (New Orleans-based Stewart Enterprises) has languished.

Ah, it's much easier to say what NOT to buy. Tough question, rcjordan.

rcjordan

12:09 am on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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How about utilities, now that deregulation has been demonized? Look at the yield on Dominion Resources ...though there doesn't seem to be much of a trend there for capital gains on the stock itself.

[finance.yahoo.com...]

Mardi_Gras

1:18 am on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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though there doesn't seem to be much of a trend there for capital gains on the stock itself.

But I think that is as it should be. For much of the 90's, the stock market was like a giant pyramid scheme (I hope the same terminology applies overseas :)). Stocks became more valuable not because of company growth but because there seemed to be an endless line of investors ready to pump money into stocks (remember Yahoo at $250 per share?). It turned out that the line of investors was not endless, and the pyramid collapsed.

I think the market is trying to find its way back to the fundamentals - profitable companies with proven management teams, a history of making money, and the ability to pay dividends - all of which adds up to a stock which should appreciate in value over the long haul.

Now if I only knew which ones those were :)

skibum

3:52 am on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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6 months ago it seemed like there were lots of good buys that were down 75-90%, and not the fly by night dot-coms. Six months later they're down another 50-75%. Some of these have to be near the bottom. Even WorldCom isn't capable of going below zero:)

Healthcare might be a bright spot for investors, but with the price of prescription drugs increasing, benefits being cut, seniors investments vaporizing, there will be no one to pay the bills.

Mardi_Gras

11:13 am on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Even WorldCom isn't capable of going below zero

I have friend who doubled his money on Worldcom - bought it at 8 cents and bailed when it rebounded to 20 cents a couple of days later (he actually decided not to be a hog - got out at .16 :))

skibum

3:12 pm on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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The same would have worked for Enron with the right timing. Seems like there is often a little window of opportunity to buy right at the bottom before everyone decides to hop back in and try to catch that bounce.

Hunter

3:21 pm on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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We should get more upside here today. Look for it to begin after the noon doldrums and run into the close. Nice trend day up, a step helping to correct the short term oversold conditions that I mentioned earlier.

Mardi_Gras

3:58 pm on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Okay, Hunter, did you post that before or after the market was up 300? :)

Hunter

5:04 pm on Aug 6, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Hehe...whatever time my post says Mardi_Gras...which I believe was around noon EST...what i'm really saying is that the major indexes are holding up well and that they should rally higher before the close...

skibum

4:26 pm on Sep 3, 2002 (gmt 0)

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September starts with selloff [money.cnn.com]

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stocks sank in a sea of red at midday Tuesday as techs retreated following an estimate cut of Intel and a downgrade of Citigroup led the crumbling blue-chip issues.

Citigroup slapped with a sell! Now there is somethin' ya don't see everyday.

Hunter

7:27 pm on Sep 3, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Citigroup slapped with a sell! Now there is somethin' ya don't see everyday.

Agree skibum, but even more significant than that news is how the Nasdaq in paticular is handling the news. It's been showing pretty good relative strength (compared the the other indexes) through out the day.

newedage

10:15 pm on Sep 3, 2002 (gmt 0)



If my career still depended upon my quarterly book, I would be as low profile and hedged as I could be these next two weeks with the "00" of an aniversary coming up on the 11th added onto a tumultios earnings period. Personally I do think there will be buying opportunities these next two months or at least a good chance to re-organise portfolios, and make some short term plays if OPM is not at stake (oh that "prudent man rule"). Regardless it will be interesting times this quarter.

skibum

3:17 am on Sep 20, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Bears make a meal of stocks

Dow takes triple-digit drop after IBM implodes from EDS's blockbuster warning; economy disappoints. [money.cnn.com]

Below 8k for the DOW - 1st close at that level in a long time no?

NAS -35.68 to 1216.45
S&P -26.14 to 843.32

We saw a lot of spending pullbacks after 911, but now that the markets are tumbling of their own accord business doesn't seem as concerned.

-------------------------------

"A big pie in the face of investors will be Tyco, whose numbers are in shambles," said Cohodes. "Tyco's numbers when they come out will have a bigger impact on the market. It will make EDS look like Sunday school."

Ever work with any company before and after Tyco bought them? They buy it and after the acquisition a perfectly good company ceases to function.

skibum

9:38 pm on Oct 9, 2002 (gmt 0)

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Stocks dive to fresh multi-year lows
Downgrades, profit jitters trash indexes
[cbs.marketwatch.com]

Goldman Sachs' chief investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen lowered her 12-month target on the Dow industrials ($INDU: news, chart, profile) to 10,800 from 11,300 and the S&P 500's ($SPX: news, chart, profile) to 1,150 from 1,300.

Ya, OK. I'll take some of whatever she's smokin'

After the close, Internet portal Yahoo (YHOO: news, chart, profile) posted a third-quarter profit that surpassed Wall Street's expectations. See the story.

Rockin!

DOW: down 215.22 points, or 2.9 percent, to 7,286.27
NAS: down 15.10 points, or 1.3 percent, to 1,114.
S&P: down 2.7 percent to 776.76

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