Forum Moderators: martinibuster
I run a site that spans many different topics, so I'm not inclined to think it's related to competition. For the last couple of years, AdSense has provided fairly predictable revenue, and this is the first time I've seen such a dramatic drop. Have any of you guys seen something similar?
I don't know about CTR, EPC EPM or anything other than at the end of the day my revenues are down 35% and ad spending is up on adwords for me... this can't last for long else I'll have to stop adwords and then see a 90% decrease in revenue. This adwords to adsense model has work for 9 straight months ... until now.
There are other strange things going on to. I just did a little test and switched adsense accounts for one of my main earning pages. The new account is getting 4x EPC of the previous account (and we aren't talking pennies). Very strange but only an hour's worth of clicks.
How about a different take on the situation? Google has changed something in its publishing of stats, perhaps now including clicks that are disallowed as revenue. Like many others here we are seeing a dramatically reduced epc, however CTR is up.
Maybe I need to reread the thread, but CTR was not necessarily up. Exposures and clicks were up. CTR (%) has been about the same for quite some time now. As with my site, there is general growth of my userbase and traffic. My traffic certainly hasn't gone up. As mentioned just above, it's not like stats are being adjusted and the bottom dollar earnings are the same. People are saying bottom-line revenue is down 30+%. That's not a stats adjustment... that's a change in payout (be it out cut or less coming from advertisers).
We'll see how it all pans out, but IMO all that these threads end up proving is that people who see declines in earnings are more likely to post about it than those who don't.
So, does that mean I should put on a smiley face and be thankful to G?
Yes, of course (lol), but....why is epc .065 x on tuesday and 1.00 x on wednesday. Bear in mind that it was 1.0 x last week as well. I higgggghhhhhllllyyy doubt that the conversation
data supplied by advertisers allowed google to determine that I should be stripped of 35% of my earnings for several days only to get it back again. I higggghhhlllly doubt that advertiser behavior neatly changed to account for a 35% reduction and then changed again so suddenly to give me back the 35%.
For the adsense apologists here, I am not saying that there is a machiavellian plan on google's part, but it must be convenient for them bottomline-wise to occasionally have these blips for so many publishers. Can anyone argue against that? I'm not saying "why" this kind of thing happens so often. In a non-transparent system, none of us will ever know why. I am just making the point that it is good for them $-wise. Draw your own conclusions.
Now, I will brace for a broadside from the apologists camp.
Today CPM seems to be back to normal and earning are progressing as usual.
Think about the different factors that could be at work, even aside from what's happening in the ad marketplace or in terms of search referrals:
1) How ads are targeted and apportioned to publishers;
2) How "smart pricing" discounts are calculated and applied;
3) The details of the compensation formula (which is likely to be much more complex than a straight percentage split).
Now let's say that you're a publisher who had a bad day when ads were mistargeted, a greater share of ads went to publishers of a certain size or with a certain conversion rate, the smart-pricing algorithm was tweaked in a way that worked against you, and the compensation formula was tweaked in a way that was good for some publishers but not for you. The next day, the dials are readjusted or new parameters are entered into the "black box," and your EPC/CTR/eCPM go back up. Nobody was trying to cheat you, your search referrals were unchanged, and the same advertisers bought the same ads as usual, but you got knocked down and hauled back onto your feet over a 48-hour period--all because the stars or Google's AdSense algorithms and formulas were out of alignment from your point of view.
Two of them looked at me after reading it and both said "what does this dude listen to our conversations?" lol.
Those of us in the trenches know whats up.
I never believed i would be doing that but today i was actually busy removing ads from many pages. Google has left me with not much to lose.
Replaced with affiliate links...and allready some sales are starting to flow in.
Let the boys in the plex add that to their “smart pricing” algo.
The new account is getting 4x EPC of the previous account (and we aren't talking pennies). Very strange but only an hour's worth of clicks.
Well, not so strange. Smart pricing needs some history before it can kick in. Your new account has no history. It's the same effect that causes the frequent complaints along the lines of "I made tons of money the first week, now my earnings have dropped through the floor, help!"
If the page where you are testing this is in fact like the average page in your old account--which it may not be, of course--I'd be very surprised if EPC for your new account didn't start to fall soon, and end up close to your old account.
EFV, I think you're exactly right. These blips that I and a number of others experience are the result of algorithmic fidgeting. However...though I truly hate to sound the pessimist's bell (hardee har har), it still seems very convenient that every time they decide to tinker some of us come out on the losing end.
I'm sure there's no diabolical plot here, but...if you can consistently have 1x and then get knocked down to .65x for several days (I could have bought a whole stack of new comic books with what I lost) and THEN, lickity-split, get bumped back up to 1.0x again, to me that signifies some short-comings in the system.
What I'm hoping is that the site-targeting-CPM system will simply throw "smart-pricing" out the window. That would be logical, of course, since the advertiser would be taking a decided course of action: choosing your site on which to advertise. If that's not a stamp of "relevant content approval", I don't know what would be.
What I'm hoping is that the site-targeting-CPM system will simply throw "smart-pricing" out the window.
$Duuuh = "Very dissatisfied webmasters pulling out more than 1000000 impressions per month and taking them elsewhere";
It almost feels like they are testing how low they can go before a major exudes begins. They’ve been experimenting with this for some time now.
It almost feels like they are testing how low they can go before a major exudes begins. They’ve been experimenting with this for some time now.
If they're conducting such an experiment, why are some publishers affected while others aren't?
I prefer the "tweaking with resulting fallout" hypothesis, which is easier to defend with logic and isn't exactly unprecedented at the Googleplex.
There is really not much to "keep them honest" right now except their moto. :) But when Yahoo (or even) MSN start releasing their products, things will get a little more interesting.
I'm actually thinking about going ad free on some of my information sites at times when Google is going down, and my traffic is going up. I do NOT run scraper sites, and I have quality traffic. If they prefer to pay the scrapers, I better things I can do with my space.
If they're conducting such an experiment, why are some publishers affected while others aren't?
Experience tells that eventually it catches up with most.
Check out the new "earnings are down" threads and you can see for yourself a good number of "advocates", "never affected" earners recently changing their tune.
This is not to say that i am counting out system errors, server downs and major glitches. I just find it weird that in 99% of cases it is OUR bottom line that is being affected. Statistically, one would expect a 50%,50% chance of being seriously affected (as a result of machine and algo issues). However, the recent decline is consistent with previous gradual declines and seem very intentional. I no longer put logic behind what ever they keep on tweaking with. To me this clearly looks as more $$ on shareholders reports at the end of the quarter.
Unfortunately I don’t think we’ve seen the last of this. They still/will keep on testing new lows and I expect even more sever new lows further down the track.
This is not to say that i am counting out system errors, server downs and major glitches. I just find it weird that in 99% of cases it is OUR bottom line that is being affected.
Where did you get that figure?
As someone pointed out in the thread about members with increasing EPCs, posts about declining earnings, search rankings, or other problems always outnumber posts from members who have no reason to complain. That's human nature, and it's been typical of online forums since the days of GEnie, CompuServe, and BBSes.
For all we know, the number of publishers who are doing better or staying the same may be equal to the number of publishers who are feeling pain.
It may be therapeutic to allege that Google is cutting the payout and trying to see what it can get away with, but it's more logical to wait for the numbers in Google's next quarterly earnings report before making public allegations of sneaky accounting. (And I say that as someone who has zero tolerance for fuzzy math and breach of contract: I'm a named plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit against one of the Web's largest content networks.)
Just to test that theory, after seeing a 70% fall in eCPM yesterday, today I've more than doubled yesterday's eCPM on about 10% higher traffic with 40 minutes to go.
I'm just amazed it's never attributed to market trends, supply, demand, seasonal, decreasing ROI, etc. but it's always the big evil corporation with the big evil conspiracy to make their big evil quarter better so their big evil investors are happy.
OK people, I'm going to say this one time and one time only as I hate the capslock key:
JOIN SOME OTHER PROGRAM AND DROP ADSENSE IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT!
Of course you won't, it's the best paying easy money you'll ever find and you know it as you've tried everything else and for whatever reason this paid better than anything.
Get over it, AdSense is very much like the stock market, it trends up, it trends down, funny thing about trends.
BTW, if you want better money I hear graduates of French Fry University are in high demand.
This is an adsense forum. If you don't like the whining then maybe you should not read such threads. We already know your opinion and it is starting to sound like a broken record.
Most of as have been in this business for many years and know our options. I for one already dropped adsense from 95% of my pages for better paying alternatives.
So please spare us off your arrogant crap!
incrediBILL, you're full of yourself and it spills.
That may be true, but what I said was a bit tongue in cheek.
The paranoia comments run rampant and I like to poke a little fun at it, not like those thoughts may or may not cross my mind, but they don't contribute to the situation or the solution.
I for one already dropped adsense from 95% of my pages for better paying alternatives.
I see, I'm full of myself but you agree with me and dropped most of your AdSense :)
Ah, that made my night, even my detractors agree with what I say!
Now I can sleep well.
I see, I'm full of myself but you agree with me and dropped most of your AdSense :)Ah, that made my night, even my detractors agree with what I say!
Now I can sleep well.
Good , i'm realy happy for you. Sleep tight and please don't let us wake you up again...LOL :)
I think most people here are smart enough to take those other variables into account when looking for reasons in the drop of their income.
I do think a seasonal downturn (warmer weather = less people on computer) can account for some drop in revenue, but that doesn't account for the steady drops and setbacks I've seen over the last 19 months. Smart pricing doesn't account for a lot of it either.
It's also possible that those who have a negative attitude towards corporate culture do so because they where once a part of that negative environment. Fears about BIG EVIL CORPORATE GIANT are justified.
THose who haven't worked for BIG CORPORATE GIANT watch the news. ie US Airways defaults on pension plan. Many people here watched the internet bubble pop. We've seen big shot internet companies come and go.
This is supposed to be the boom time in internet advertising. We are probably never going to see another time like this again for years. Yet, instead of trickling down to me like it should, my revenue keeps getting pinched and sliced.
Despite all this, I'm still in Adsense's camp. I have hope they will take a couple of steps to improve things or listen to publishers. But like I said, I am a realist about Adsense and I am concerned about what I am seeing lately.
I've been through lots of ups and downs with adsense for different reasons and don't become concerned very easily. But these days, well, I just don't have a good feeling about what I am seeing.
I want them to know I am a serious partner with them who doesn't hit the panic button very easily. I don't want them to get a bad case of corporate culture group think. (defined: where everyone in the corporate group thinks XYZ is a good idea without seeing the downsides) Just as you might be playing devil's advocate here (defined: the guy or team that shows group think victims the opposite view point) - I want to be the devil's advocate in the Adsense office.
This is supposed to be the boom time in internet advertising
Yes it is -- and everyone from the biggest players online to Suzi & Tom running their travel blog to Nakhon Nowhere and Bill & Ted with their pet parrot website are running adsense -- it's not exactly an exclusive club!
So all this boom money is being diluted big-time by admitting many site-owners who in the past, wouldn't have even considered running adverts on their site -- they just would have had the site for the hell of it. Plus you've get the whole genus of scrapers and their offspring which I won't get into (again) who help the dilution along.
What was my point again?
Oh the dilution of the boom money - the boom is there, we're just sharing it with more people than we'd probably choose to if we had a say in the matter -- I don't think Google is taking a bigger swipe, there are just sooo many publishers now that I can't help but think the rates are going down -- as an advertiser I can see the better positioning I get with 5c on the content network than I did six months ago -- there's only one reason for that!
[edited by: Brett_Tabke at 6:54 pm (utc) on May 18, 2005]
[edit reason] thanks - lets leave the moderating to the moderators. This is the adsense forum. [/edit]
3) *everyone* seems to suffer the same drops at the same time, so it's not market shifts which would be gradual or phased in over days or weeks, not in hours.
This statement just isn't true. I've been reading posts here for months and months about changes in earnings or EPC or whatever, and more often than not, my personal experience was different, and so was the experience of at least some other posters.
The trouble is that AdSense is a chaotic and complicated system, and we are all trying to make sense of it with a lot of missing information. And so far as I'm concerned, that's why so many people attribute changes to GoogleGreed rather than to other, more difficult-to-understand changes.
Prediction: when Yahoo or MSN or whoever gets a full-blown competitor going, there will be a minor stampede to the new program. For a little while, people will be crowing about how much money they will be making. But within six months, most will be complaining about their declining earnings, as the same factors that have caused them to drop at AdSense will kick in there. And remember, if Google really is taking a larger cut to make their shareholder happy--Microsoft and Yahoo have shareholders too. [cue the ominous music, fade....]
That would be nice. Truth is, there are so many variables between the many tens of thousands of niches, it's like we're all in the tower of babel speaking on deaf ears.
You're one of the bravest here for giving out your url. I think one thing that keeps people from mentioning their urls is all the new posters who pop in with questions like: "what are the highest paying keywords?"
Agreed.
"And so far as I'm concerned, that's why so many people attribute changes to GoogleGreed rather than to other, more difficult-to-understand changes."
I attribute it to a payout system that does not work very well when it comes to determining the value of pages and/or sites.
As for the suggestion that advertisers now have the ability to bypass Google and go direct to publishers (presumably because of the site recommendations in the "site-targeted" advertising tool), I'd simply point out that:
1) AdSense advertisers have been able to tell where their referrals have been coming from all along. (And in many sectors, they don't even need to track referrals--they know which sites are important in their niches.)
2) AdSense ads--the traditional CPC ads, anyway--are targeted by page, not by site. That's what makes AdSense so useful to advertisers. By aggregating targeted impressions from dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of sites, it lets niche advertisers reach prospects far more efficiently and cost-effectively than they could do with direct ad buying. For example, a travel agent who's selling Elbonian barge cruises could never justify buying large blocks of impressions on sites devoted to cruising, Elbonian travel, or lifestyle experiences for rich people. That's where AdSense comes in: It aggregates impressions from many different sites, but--just as important--it aggregates targeted impressions from those many sites. For the advertiser, AdSense could be described as "advertising meets direct marketing."
