Forum Moderators: martinibuster
Anyone else notice this today!
Back to serious discussion: What constitutes a trend is in the mind of the beholder to some degree, but it also depends on other factors such as the size of the data sample, known seasonal factors, etc. Because my own topic is subject to seasonal fluctuations, I put more stock in same-month-last-year-to-same-month-this-year comparisons than in this-week-vs.-last-week or today-vs.-yesterday comparisons. I also look at what's happening with my other revenue streams. If AdSense looks a bit soft during Christmas week and my affiliate bookings also look a bit soft during that time, I can assume (with reasonable confidence) that the downturn was caused by non-AdSense factors such as people thinking about Christmas parties or wrapping gifts instead of planning vacations.
[edited by: europeforvisitors at 10:34 pm (utc) on April 21, 2006]
Well, I was going to suggest that the OP's fall in income might be due to smartpricing wreaking vengeance on her for creating an MFA for a day
Interesting theory.
...EFV has a point.
BTW, yesterday was very good for me and today is even better.
[edited by: martinibuster at 5:15 am (utc) on April 24, 2006]
[edit reason] TOS #4 & 19 [/edit]
[webmasterworld.com...]
Well, I was going to suggest that the OP's fall in income might be due to smartpricing wreaking vengeance on her for creating an MFA for a day
Interesting theory.
Nah, not a theory - just a lame stab at humour. I think the OP got it though.
Actually this thread is only tangentially about stats. Mostly it's about us.
Really? How come everybody has mentioned stats then, and nobody's come up with why I can't get my rotten old Toyota's immobiliser to stop immobilising the engine? That's what I really want to know if we are discussing "us" :) :)
Actually this thread is only tangentially about stats. Mostly it's about us.
Well said.
M
Incidentally, re EFV's comments about stats, we are being joined by lots of new readers all the time. It is particularly useful for Adsense & WW neophytes to be made aware of the important point about stats interpretation (which I also make in the Golden Gate thread that Optirex linked to). However, this is a polychronic [worldwidewords.org] thread - not only about understanding stats but expressing concerns and venting emotions and wondering about the meaning of life and articulating our feelings in a community of friends that will understand what we're saying - the latter point explaining, perhaps, why we'll show great interest in David_uk's fall in eCPM but not his Toyota immobiliser.
Though, if he were to create a web page on Toyota immobilisers and put Adsense on it, that might be a different matter...
Though, if he were to create a web page on Toyota immobilisers and put Adsense on it, that might be a different matter...
Only if the web page answers the question I'm asking. I might then click on the ads to purchase whatever I need to fix the old heap. Otherwise I'll block it as an MFA ;)
Really? How come everybody has mentioned stats then, and nobody's come up with why I can't get my rotten old Toyota's immobiliser to stop immobilising the engine?
Perhaps the more important sub-text about "us" is less apparent to those preoccupied with old automobiles. But the reason no one yet mentioned your immobilser is that we are not clairvoyant, you must bring this up before we can talk about it. I have had a Toyota but never had an immobiliser--I think this must be some quirky brit name for an ordinary item. The English have forgotten that their language has moved on to more vibrant climes leaving them in a backward linguistic enclave. j/k
I'm not trying to be contrary here, but the "It's about us" comment seems to be rather nebulous, woolly and not really relevant. You are all talking about stats - it's not a tangent. The title of the thread is "My earnings are way low today" - that's about stats, not "us".
I don't normally comment in this type of thread. I don't personally see how knowing stats are down 10 minutes after midnight helps. But at the same time, if they help someone then that's good. Posts about Google being down or running slow are of interest to me, but I do agree with EFV that you can't claim any trend is occurring part way through the day. The statistics aren't even final at midnight - click dumps and adjustments often happen early next day.
No one likes to see a forum fill up with the same posts or questions from new members time and time again and I understand the frustration felt by regular members when they see that happening. However, I don't think that was the case here and if this is not an appropriate forum to discuss something unusual in your experience of AdSense then where is?
I hope the way this thread has developed will not put off others from posting. Andrea's comment may have been "wooly" but I understand it and second it.
Mac
Mac
No one likes to see a forum fill up with the same posts or questions from new members time and time again and I understand the frustration felt by regular members when they see that happening. However, I don't think that was the case here and if this is not an appropriate forum to discuss something unusual in your experience of AdSense then where is?
Macavity - you mentioned long term decline in ecpm. That's a different topic IMHO. Your decline could be described as a trend, albeit a personal one. And yes, this is the appropriate (and biggest?) forum for this.
In this forum, we get a lot of newbies starting these threads. The OP has 95 posts to her name, so I'm not sure she really classes a total newb. What long term regulars do in these threads is to step in and calm nerves. It's absolutely true that you can't judge part day's statistics as "trends", or if you don't want to call it a trend, then you still can't judge a part-day statistic in any comparitive way. It's absolutely right to make the point that a whole day's statistics are not useful as a comparison either.
My daily stats are up and down, yet when you look at the longer term picture, epc has remained very stable (high, and within a couple of cents either way for the last few months), and the only true variable is site traffic. So I could have started one of these threads each and every day to say that some stats were different to the monthly norm, but really there isn't a point. If you go through and count those that have contributed to the thread, it's about evens on up and down as is always the case in these threads.
So stepping in and calming nerves by pointing out that today might be up or down, you really need to look at the longer term picture is what always happens in these thread, and rightly so IMHO.
If you look at EFV's contribution to this thread, the first post was in the spirit of the thread and stated his stats were perfectly normal. I think the rudeness displayed towards him was unwarranted personally.
Maybe you should start a separate thread on your long term decline in ecpm. I think it's an entirely separate issue from this type of "It's 10am and my stats are low" posts, and should be treated as such.
Maybe you should start a separate thread on your long term decline in ecpm. I think it's an entirely separate issue from this type of "It's 10am and my stats are low" posts, and should be treated as such.
Covered some time ago here:
[webmasterworld.com...]
David, the points you make about statistical variation, trends etc. are all very valid - no argument from me here My concern was more about the way the thread was developing in terms of the interaction between members, especially as I have the sense that the OP's post was being somewhat misinterpreted.
I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill though, I'm sure we've all got more important things to do.
Mac
My daily stats are up and down, yet when you look at the longer term picture, epc has remained very stable (high, and within a couple of cents either way for the last few months), and the only true variable is site traffic.
I have three different revenue streams on my site (AdSense, display ads, and affiliate bookings), and all three have dips and spikes. Just recently I noticed that bookings for one affiliate partner had been way down for a couple of days, but when I looked at my stats for the month to date, I saw that I was 281% ahead of the same period in April, 2005. And the next day--Saturday-was considerably better than a typical Saturday, proving that my two sluggish days were a blip, not a trend.
As someone pointed out in another thread a few months ago, many people who use AdSense have little experience with self-employment or with revenues from Web publishing. If you're used to earning $X per hour or $Y per month, it's easy to be alarmed by the unpredictability of freelance or publishing income. But in an auction-based system where prices and earnings are determined by supply and demand, variations in daily revenue are inevitable.
i think i won't be worried any more if a day is very low.
one day in three months must be the lowest anyway :)
...variations in daily revenue are inevitable.
Having been in another business before and coming from a family that has been in business since before I was born I certainly am aware of this fact.
But no business in the history of the world is like AdSense publishing. It is unique in many ways and subject to things totally unheard of in B&M businesses and even in other types of ebusiness. The fluctuations are different and have causes that are different. Yes, there will always be unexplained fluctuations.
To be unconcerned about them and not have the need to discuss and compare them is to be less than human. Or in the case of *some* exalted creatures, god-like and super human.
The rest of us are here and we dislike being condescended to because of our concerns.
I support the existence of threads like this one and if they cease to exist here I will find them elsewhere (or I will create them).
21_blue's essay about jumping off the bridge that spans the Golden Gate should of course be required reading but after that there will always remain doubts and fears that can be aleviated only in a community forum.
[edited by: martinibuster at 5:20 am (utc) on April 24, 2006]
[edit reason] TOS #4 & 19 [/edit]
I'd like to make a constructive, positive suggestion:
Instead of having interminable "My EPC is up" or "My earnings are down" threads that disappear almost as quickly as they're begun, why not have an ongoing thread with a subject line like:
"How's your day?"
For an example of how this might work, see the ongoing "Data centers watch" threads on the premoderated Google News forum, which obviously are much more useful than a constant stream of new threads such as "Anything happening on 72.14.207.99?" or "How are you doing on "64.233.185.104"? (When the DC watch or update threads become unwieldy after 30 or 40 pages of replies, the moderators close them and continue the discussion in follow-up threads.)
I'd start a "How's your day?" thread myself, but it's probably better for someone who's more enthusiastic about such threads to do the honors.
An entire post mostly devoted to being a personal attack on a posting member. I hope the mod deletes this.
I don't see it that way at all, as a forum owner/moderator myself I think it's entirely acceptable for forum users to speak up if they think someone's out of line, as long as they're reasonable in the way they do it. That way you develop a consensus about what is and is not acceptable for the community you've built. I can't imagine why a mod would want to delete contructive criticism.
Nobody is saying these threads shouldn't exist.
I have the strong impression that's exactly what some people are saying.
you cannot make useful comparisons using part of a day's statistics.
Agreed, but that's not really what this is all about. Someone noticed something unusual in their experience of AdSense and wanted to know if anyone else had seen something similar (the first post even acknowledges that it's too soon to read much into it). I've got no problem with that, I do have a problem with people who can't be bothered to consider other people's feelings (in this forum or anywhere else for that matter).
Mac
Certainly that's why I joined in on the thread - my own eCPM has been declining slowly for many months but the past few days have seen a significant, sudden decrease, something I have never seen before. That said, I genuinely don't see the reason for the hostility shown by some members in this thread...even if this was a topic where some people were claiming that the sky was falling just because they'd had a bad day (which I don't think it is) I don't see that as a valid reason for the tone adopted by some.
First, we've been seeing the same trend across a number of sites. The last 10 days have ended up about half of our high's during a month that has historically (over years) been our best. "Something" is happening re: our sites.
Second, regarding hostility, one nice thing about this board is one can look at the other messages a person has posted, examine the tone, and note whether the person has historically been snotty, nasty, or otherwise consistently embroiled in hostile behavior. I consider the source.
Third, EFV is one of the posters I ALWAYS read.
Anyone else?
(Pom Pom cheerleaders...feel free to ignore this post)
My site's eCPM has been somewhat below the April average for the last four days, but only one of those days (today) was below the daily average for March. (Today has been about the same as my lowest day this month, which was 10 days ago.)
:) Y
