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Wordtracker reports that this TV show was searched for 1155 times during the last 60 days and predicts that there will be 1111 searches for that term in the next 24 hours.
I happen to have a website about that TV show which received a little more than 400 visits last month, that's 14 a day. (Although my rankings suck even though I thought it's SEOed well and it has a PageRank of 5 and it's listed in DMOZ. Number 32 on Yahoo and 100 something on Google. No wonder why no one finds it.)
Anyway, I looked at the search results for a more commercial two keywords (let's call them "keyword1 kekyword2") that I recently created a new site for. According to Overture, there were 57246 searches for keyword1 keyword2 during the last month. Impressive.
But then I looked at Wordtracker which reports a dismal 164 searches during the last 60 days and predicts 158 total searches during the next 24 hours.
Now this is a pretty huge difference between those two examples. For the TV show, Overture's number was 12.7 times greater than the Wordtracker number (reflecting Overture's greater search traffic?).
But for the more commerical keyword pair, Overture's number is 349 times greater than the Wordtracker number.
What's going on here?
I tried another TV show. Overture's number is 21 times bigger than Wordtracker's number.
I tried another very popular commerical search term, Overture's number is 432 times bigger.
Wow, is Overture VASTLY overinflating the number of searches for commercial words (by a factor of TWENTY?), or do people use the search engines that Wordtracker uses for its results to only search for old TV shows?
This, or something along the same lines, might hold true today. What you need to do is to correlate your own actual traffic with what the two tools estimates. Over time you will discover what the true ratio between the estimates and the actual traffic is in your line of business.
I recommend using any of those numbers as relative numbers- not absolute numbers.
The skews for each are variable based on innumerable factors, including webmasters checking positions, fraud clicks, single users searching more than one site on the same term... on and on.
Make your own rule of thumb, and test how it works for you. Its anybody's guess, and it will change month to month, or even day to day. I have yet to see any quoted number match source to source.
Example: Even checking popularity of search engines, using media metrix, nielsen, Alexa, or any other. You will never get the same percentage. You MAY however get the same relative positioning, or the same top 4 - 5.
<terms that don't even show up on WT>
Yes, all my best generic positions and clickthough rates are for keywords that WT seems to vapourize as insignificant. My best phrase (30% of traffic) did not turn up in OV, GG or WT as suggestions.
But the traffic for them was there on Google and Yahoo.
Makes you wonder if there's a (gasp) conspiracy of non disclosure going on somewhere... :-)
What the numbers mean are 'XXX' APPEARANCES in thier database over the past 60 days, not total searches online. The second is the predicted daily searches.
Now Overture reports on monthly results.
Sooooo, multiply the predict number on WT by 30 to get monthly and compare those. Now they should be much more similar (but there are always freak occurances).
Does anyone here do anything like that?
Does anyone try to calculate effectivess index based on WT and OV stats?
Anyone willing to share their know-how formuli? :)