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I'm just curious if anyone has any predictions that specifically relate to the search engines. And who do you think will be the stock market winners in the search engine wars - if any?
I have no feelings on the subject as everytime I predict something it changes before I get a chance to try it. So No predictions this year hehe
On a general level, I see i get most referrals from like 2 search engines, which I think is a bad thing. I hope that theme-based search engines will emerge, and that the number of 'directory-like' sites will increase.
I also hope that something will be done about the omipresent 'SPAM'/MLM/UCE. I feel as a responsible company with a good customer base I dont need to cripple users mailboxes whith messages they'll hardly read and that will only harm my reputation (or that of the company I work for).
I hope generally that encrypted traffic will increase, and that there will be a solution to stop/limit gouvernment funded espionage (read carnivore, echelon, et al).
Sk.
Also making money will be those board members who know what they are about, and making slightly less money will be those board members who joined later.
Prosperity will rain down on PHD systems, and it's founder is finally recognized for his tireless efforts in supporting, encouraging, and assisting fledgling members of the SEO community.
Meta tag optimizers will go out of business, or start bidding up SEO on goto so high, they can never recoup their losses, unless they start charging one time set up fees of $10,000,000.00 to their clients, thus making meta tag optimization an elite weapon weilded only by the deluded super rich (read VC's who don't want to by banners any more, but still feel the urge to flush money).
Ask Jeeves will realize he should ask why he isn't making money, and go banko. (read out of business)
Go will realize nobody cares since nobody uses their product, as Disney managed to mishandle once the crown of instant, fast, and drill downable results into obscurity, and will thus raise their spider fee to $500.
NBCI will wonder why nobody wants to pay 200 dollars as well, and will lower their prices on a permanent basis, in an effort to gain market share.
Looksmart will decide that Zeal content is the only content that matters, and will distribute it all across their network of partners. once they make this bad decision, they, too, will be banko. (see above.)
Yahoo will reign supreme, bid for google, fail, and consequently develop it's own technology, putting google out to pasture.
AOL will finally succeed in getting all of it's users thoroughly entrenched in it's way of spoofing real internet content, and will charge people to see actual web pages. This scheme will spark scattered protest, but will envelop the marketplace, as AOL becomes the sole distributor of Time Warner contenct. If you don't have AOL, you can't see the next batman movie, and other insidious ploys.
Northernlight will continue as always, in obscurity.
Alltheweb/Fast will dominate the global search market, and will fine tune the neural adaptation algorithm, which enables users to merely think about what sites they would like to see, and then have them appear on screen, via a chip implant that will be distributed via snail mail, ironically on the same day people recieve the latest free trial version of aol.
Google will reverse course, sign similtaneous deals with Engage, Doubleclick, and all other remaining media firms, to sell incredibly large banners on their home page, and the SERP pages. This will iritate surfers, but those who google will know they have no choice. Also implemented will be a 300 second meta refresh, just like altavista, enabling google to double charge the banner firms, and will propel them to their successful IPO, even with the loss of Yahoo. They go broke as Doubleclick and engage fold in 2002...upsetting the millions of shareholders who will watch their market cap plummet from 5 billion to just under 2 million.
Cheers,
Han Solo
Don't forget to add that Excite has and continues to employ this method. I saw one the other day on their site that was around 500x250.
Site designers will continue the trend of whittling down their pages to the essentials. The average home page will drop a few 'K' in weight. In a stunning development, the average interactive agency home page will drop from 900K to 800K.
Google increasingly dominates search services. The major directories will continue to split traffic in a similar fashion for the short-term (with Yahoo & ODP the surest bets for long-term survival). 80% to 90% of PPC search engines will go away. At least one directory or SE that offers paid inclusion will drop their services or go belly up, leaving many disappointed site promoters, although the underlying database might be picked up by another company.
The key top-level issue may not be the amount of people moving from offline to online, but rather the increasing sophistication of those already online (as a large generation of Web adopters matures). In terms of search activity, this may be reflected in a greater percentage of multi-word searches.
The use of the word "hit" to refer to visitors/visits/pageviews will be outlawed.
WmW will continue to have "it".
Information only (pure research directories), will be funded by ISPs, Computer Manufactors, etc . .
They will supply these directories for free to the Seach Engines
ISPs, Computer Manufactures,, will fund .orgs and .edu to supply the data for these directories in the form of grants, contributions and find some tax benefits in the process. (algo heaven for the computer science departments)
These directories will be impossible to be in (for free) unless you have a .org or a .edu. .Coms will pay for review and inclusion at a premium price. Initial review and each (any page update) will be chargeable.
Minnapple
Yahoo:
52 Week High: $225
Current: $30
NBCi.com
52 Week High: $106
Current: $2.68
About.com
52 Week High: $105
Current: $28.6
LookSmart
52 Week High: $72
Current: $3.0
A business on the internet which relies solely on banner advertising revenue to stay afloat is doomed to failure. IMHO People have learned to simply 'tune out' banner advertising on the web, and as a result many of the search engine profits have fallen dramatically. Marketers learned this (albeit a bit late) and pulled most of their banner ads. And as a result, investors in the search engine stocks have run like they were on fire.
The result was that we saw all the engines and directories running to the pay for inclusion business model that was started by Yahoo and fueled by LookSmart. If you can't make money off banner advertising you have to turn somewhere else, and it seems they turned to us.
However, all of them can not survive this business model. IMHO
For that reason, I anticipate a huge consolidation of the search engine industry in the coming year.
It's my personal opinion that most of the search engine stocks have just about bottomed out. And I believe that this year will be the year where we see who will win and who will lose in the search engine wars.
It doesn't have anything to do with who serves the best search results - or who has the best directory. It's all tied to the money.
I see Google being a large winner because they've figured out a way to generate revenue with their AdWords campaign without turning away free submission program and the excellence of their search results.
I see NBCi.com becoming a much larger player. But first, they will have to clean up the way they display search reasults. They are now into a three tier system which is totally confusing.
I see Go.com becoming a novelty and falling beside the way.
I see LookSmart as falling off the face of the earth. Just look at all the execs there that are selling off massive chunks of their stock.
I see About.com becoming more important.
I see Yahoo maintaining their dominance but losing ground at every month.
Well......... those are just a few. :)
Keep rockin everyone. This is gonna be a fun year!
