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I've seen a 400% increase in clickthrus by dropping from 10 to 11 on Google.
Has any analysis ever been done on the effectiveness of positions in SERPs.
We ruled out the actual relevancy of the result by randomizing the ordering of results amongst the first 30 during our test. Conclusions:
1) Being first is far better than second, third, etc. (which we dubbed the "million monkies hypothesis")
2) It's better to be at an edge, so the bottom several results did better than the middle (which we dubbed the "hockey stick effect"
3) This pattern continues for at least the first three pages of results
4) Very top of page N+1 is slightly better than bottom of page N.
This test is has many flaws, of course. The UI of the search page matters (we guessed that people would scroll to the bottom to click the "Next" button and then see a link that looked reasonable). This was also a long time ago and users were less conditioned to search then than now, etc.
Nevertheless, there is some element of human behavior embedded in those numbers.