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Judging from what you said, I would go for the smallest package available. We did just that a few months ago for a similar client that has 4 sites, on 4 differents domain names and he is happy now.
Internet bandwith is an issue if you have large file downloads, lots of multimedia or stuff like that.
For the average, small site owner, we don't think it's really an issue. What really counts is server availability and stability. You don't want your server to go down for any reason.
Hope I put a bit of light in your question
Ask your host what will happen if you go over.
I had a site on a budget hosting package (1gb) and went over the limit on Februrary.
They said that they would usually cut the site off, but given it was on the 28th I went over, they let me away with it! :)
I was given the choice to leave it and let them cut the site off when it reached the limit, upgrade or pay £5 per 500mb if i went over.
Needless to say I upgraded, but the point is that you could have a word the the company and make sure they don't cut you off if you go over your bandwidth limit (ie they could automatically upgrade).
When you do go with the smallest package, just make sure you have no term commitment in case you grow out of that package. It is rare nowadays, but I have still seen it.
Also, if you are knowledgable enough, if your site does grow nicely, consider hosting it "yourself". With the right hardware, OS and TCPIP servers software, one person can handle the task of administrating a network where you hosted DNS, web, ftp, pop3/smtp, etc... (I do, and it's easy if you plan ahead and can save you a fortune. One of the web servers I run does about 2-4GB a day - not really that much compared to our mixed news/web server (which also serves adult sites) - but even that one server (Without the news/adult one) would add a large chunk of expenses to pay a hosting company for bandwidth).
So, if you see one or more of them taking off, you can always grow into the role of being your network admin for when that day arrives (or hire someone for it) or plan ahead expense-wise. Even one can get expensive - one of our "entertainment" sites often hits 15+GB a day.
As for how big of a bandwith plan you purchase, it wont affect performance unless you get a host that can adjust your available thruput to try not to exceed that limit (rare), but usually the only way that it affects serving performance is the day you exceed it and they block outgoing traffic until you upgrade you plan and/or pay them more money. ;-)
Hope that helps...