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The Elegant Hack [eleganthack.com] has compiled a nice list of resources for wrestling with those browser stats questions.
I find that it's important to check many sources, since no two seem to agree with any degree of closeness. WebSnapshots [websnapshot.mycomputer.com] says 82% have Flash, but The Standard [thestandard.com] says its 97%. Big difference!
If 97% have the plug-in, it's a green light. If 82% is more accurate, it's still a no-go.
Does anyone have any experience here? Can you see how many people call for a small Flash file on a page compared to how many call for the HTML?
For some odd reason, I would trust a few reports from real, live webmasters than the numbers from the big statistics compilers.