SXSW Cancelled over Corona Virus Spread

[lammert]

SXSW scheduled to start in a week has been canceled by the City of Austin [sxsw.com] over coronavirus fears.

We are devastated to share this news with you. “The show must go on” is in our DNA, and this is the first time in 34 years that the March event will not take place. We are now working through the ramifications of this unprecedented situation.

[lammert]

And Coachella is the next event to postpone until October 2020 [coachella.com].

At the direction of the County of Riverside and local health authorities, we must sadly confirm the rescheduling of Coachella and Stagecoach due to COVID-19 concerns.

Coachella will now take place on October 9, 10 and 11 and October 16, 17 and 18, 2020. Stagecoach will take place on October 23, 24 and 25, 2020.

We are entering an era where many non-essential gatherings of substantial groups of people are postponed or canceled. It is interesting to see if this will be just a temporary change, or that this is the beginning of a more permanent shift which will last even after the coronavirus has been wiped out.

[lucy24]

SXSW scheduled to start in a week has been canceled by the City of Austin

Any organization that makes users hit three different pages just to find out what the ### their name means ... deserves to be canceled.

Humph.

:: memo to self: find out if local county courthouse persists in its once-infamous, years-established practice of compelling workers to come in, no matter how sick they are ::

[tangor]

All commonsense caution is to be used ... that's a given.

Are some of these premature/driven by media panic?

Looks like the scare is even having an impact in the political process in the USA ... we'll see how many rallies are actually canceled...

BE SAFE (and wash your hands!)

This is the flu---a variant not as bad as SARS or MERS. It is not bubonic plague or ebola or anthrax or typhoid or meningitis...

[ronin]

COVID-19 is more deadly and more contagious than the influenza virus.

It appears to be less deadly than the SARS or MERS coronaviruses.

I have read that, given how contagious COVID-19 is, the fact that it is less deadly than SARS or MERS, makes it worse not better.

What's bigger: 10% of 100,000 or 1% of a billion?

[lucy24]

given how contagious COVID-19 is, the fact that it is less deadly than SARS or MERS, makes it worse not better

If you are a virus, it is to your advantage to have a very low death rate--or, what amounts to the same thing, to take a very long time to kill your carriers, so there is plenty of time to spread around. Unfortunately viruses don't have much in the way of brains, and sometimes by the time they realize they've been too virulent, it's too late.

[lammert]

Rather than comparing what's happening with the flu, it might be better to compare it with the common cold which can be caused by some (mild) strains of coronaviruses. The difference is that flu gives a fairly predictable immune response in the body which helps to protect you in the future against the same or similar influenza virus types. This immune response is well understood and laboratories are capable to predict a season in advance which influenza strains will probably prevail and create effective vaccines in advance.

That full understanding of the immune response and availability of infrastructure to create effective vaccines is currently absent for coronaviruses. Therefore--referring back to the original subject of this topic--avoiding mass gatherings and reducing the spread of the virus by reducing human contacts in large groups, may be one of the better methods at this moment to control the spread of the disease.

[tangor]

Emerging data today (3/11/20) has some hopeful updates:

The number of new cases in hotspots is down.
Number of recoveries is up.
Groups most affected appear to NOT be children under 18
Groups most affected appear to be 60s and up
The group with greatest mortality is 70-90 years of age
Mortality rate fluctuates, but currently stands at .06% (Italy)
Social disengagement is slowing the spread.
Country wide travel restrictions is slowing the spread.

Of course, all these numbers will change tomorrow.

[lammert]

You may want to check your sources. The official website of the Italian Ministry of Health [salute.gov.it] about the coronavirus states 827 deceased, 1045 recovered and 10590 positive. That is a mortality rate of 6.6%, not 0.06%. Af factor 100 higher.

[phranque]

the NCAA mens basketball tournament will be played with essential staff and family only in attendance.
the NBA has suspended the season.
travel from EU to the USA has been suspended for 30 days.

most of which is more hopeful than it sounds...

[lucy24]

Criminy. Italy currently has more confirmed cases than anyone else except China. (A figure that needs to be approached with caution, since “confirmed cases” also depends on thoroughness of testing, naming no names.) How did that happen?

Johns Hopkins continues to list “Cruise Ship” separately from US. If they were combined, the US would nudge ahead of Germany on the overall list. But they’ve got a very encouraging recovery rate, especially considering the demographics. (Or did all the young able-bodied crew recover, while the elderly passengers are still sick? Exact figures must exist somewhere.)

more hopeful than it sounds

Well, it could hardly be less :(

[tangor]

New day, new numbers. This will not be going away anytime soon.

Note: my previous number left out one math step which would have resulted in the second reported. My apologies. Moving to numbers in other countries shows ranges <1% to <2.5%. Final mortality rates will not be known for another year. These are the floating metrics of today...

Scare yourself silly, of course, or just use commonsense and ordinary care. And if you can (if over 60 years old) find a way to lose 10-15 years. :)

[tangor]

Then again we have a report from US gov sources (3.14.20) that 50,000,000 will be infected and up to 450,000 Americans will die of COVID-19 before the end of the year.

We are doomed.