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Convicted of not predicting an earthquake!

Last time I read it was impossible to give this information.

   
7:23 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member bwnbwn is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



[foxnews.com...]

I just don't understand how these people can be convicted of the crime when there never has been a way to give a date an earthquake.

I can see it now. Calif massive quake tomorrow is predicted. Millions flee and there isn't one. Next week the same prediction same results nothing.

Next week same prediction but this time it is looked over and it happens.

Just crazy they are convicted, wonder who will be convicted from the Japan quake?
8:20 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

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If they can't predict quakes, what are these so-called "seismologists" doing then? ANd let this be a wakeup call to forecaster and geologists everywhere!

j/k...it's actually pretty sad.

Every scientist in Italy should announce an earthquake warning for L'Aquila every hour of every day for the next 2,000 years.
8:53 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator lawman is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Just read that. Talk about a chilling effect.
9:28 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

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Every Italian should be embarrassed about this - and the decision repealed!
9:48 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member lucy24 is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time Top Contributors Of The Month



Wolf! Wolf!

In next week's headlines: NWS meteorologists sentenced to life imprisonment for failing to predict exact time and place of latest hurricane landing at least 24 hours in advance of the event.
9:52 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

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This is the problem with over-selling science. It sounds like the court is sold that the science exists but the practitioners were derelict.

Maybe the science community needs to lower expectations?
10:46 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator lifeinasia is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Remember your history- Italy wasn't such a great place for Galileo, either...
10:52 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ken_b is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



So this got me thinking about how many times has the US National Weather Service been sued for predictions that were to strong or too weak?

Apparently more than a few.
11:11 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

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US National Weather Service


fairly lofty mission:

Our Mission

Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.


Maybe they need to re-calibrate that a bit.

"We make very good guesses"
11:12 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator lawman is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



>>how many times has the US National Weather Service been sued

I don't know, but there's a big difference between being sued for money damages and being charged with a crime.
11:22 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member ken_b is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



I don't know, but there's a big difference between being sued for money damages and being charged with a crime.


Sure, but I'd guess both would have some level of "chilling effects".

I'd also guess that the effect would actually more "severe/very-severe weather" warnings, possibly overstating the risk to avoid being accused of not issuing a strong enough warning.
11:43 pm on Oct 22, 2012 (gmt 0)

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There's an lively discussion about this on Slashdot so long as you browse at +4 and above.

It seems to me these scientists and bureaucrats were playing politics with the science and that's what got them into trouble.

They'd have been better off to state what current scientific evidence seems to suggest, which is that there's no more or less chance of tremors leading to an earthquake, and that earthquakes as such cannot yet be reliably predicted.

Instead they minimized the risks and tried to shift the focus to building construction not being sufficient to withstand a moderate earthquake.

If they'd said there was a high likelihood of an earthquake happening I can't help but wonder what, if anything, would have been done to minimize the risks of injury and death. Would an evacuation have been ordered? I think not.
5:18 pm on Oct 23, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator engine is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



This conviction is stupid, and the law should show common sense.

In protest, I shall boycott the pasta and pizza for a week.
6:45 pm on Oct 23, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member bwnbwn is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 5+ Year Member



[foxnews.com...]

Can you blame the other experts from getting out. I guess they will need to watch the birds and dogs form now on. Just plain silly and very sad for the ones caught up in this madness.

Yo Mr Engine pizza came from early Greeks.

Better retrack might get sued.
7:47 pm on Oct 23, 2012 (gmt 0)

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i bet Michael Fish is fretting tonight, for not predicting that hurricane. They'll bang him up for life
12:15 am on Oct 24, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member lucy24 is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time Top Contributors Of The Month



tried to shift the focus to building construction not being sufficient to withstand a moderate earthquake.

That is the appropriate focus for current levels of knowledge. I live in California. Every time I read about a faraway earthquake I am struck by the enormous death toll compared to quakes of similar magnitude in similarly populous parts of my state. It happens even in places like Japan or western Europe that have absolutely no excuse.

My cats sleep through anything less than a 5. (That's the level at which you start getting property damage.) And even then it's only about three minutes notice.
1:41 pm on Oct 24, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator engine is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



>Yo Mr Engine pizza came from early Greeks.

hehe, great, i'll lift the boycott on pizza.

>My cats sleep through anything less than a 5.

Two of ours are impossible to awake. Typically, about a minute is the wake-up time for one of the sleepyheads.

I heard on the radio news report that many of the scientists are heading out of the country. How ludicrous!

I hear that Michael Fish has cancelled his holiday to Italy. ;)
9:10 pm on Oct 24, 2012 (gmt 0)

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What? pizza with red sauce (san marzano tomatoes)and mozzarella (buffalo mozzarella) is from Naples. Both those ingredients are local to that area. All our pizza is descended from that basic mix.

There may have been some other variation in Greece, but the dough with red sauce and mozzarella is definately from Naples.
1:02 am on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member lucy24 is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time Top Contributors Of The Month



Tomatoes? Europe?

:: snicker ::
2:08 am on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)



Not surprising. Doesn't Italy have a long history of condemning scientists?
8:32 am on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



Mr Engine pizza came from early Greeks

pizza... is from Naples

Tomatoes? Europe?


Flatbreak with toppings was (ancient) greek.
Tomotoes arrived Late C16/Early C17 via Spain.
Naples used this imported (autonym:"Local") plant with extant flatbread.
EU recognises under law that this is abitrary point in the development of "stuff on flatbread" to be the birth of Pizza.
5:43 pm on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Tomatoes? Europe?


Ever tried real San Marzano tomatoes from the slopes of Vesuvius? Best in the world for sauce.

I had a bumper crop of tomatoes in my Canadian backyard this year. Plants 7 feet tall and fruit twice the size of my fist.
10:06 pm on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member lucy24 is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time Top Contributors Of The Month



I might equally well have said

"Potatoes? Europe?"

or

"Chili peppers? Europe?"

and then we get fatally derailed into a discussion of culinary grandfather clauses with particular reference to the nightshade family :)

:: quick upward glance to verify that this is Foo ::
10:45 pm on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



quick upward glance to verify that this is Foo

Seems more like the Food forum. ;)
10:56 pm on Oct 25, 2012 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member leosghost is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Mmmmmmmmmmmmm..Capsicum :)..Just had some ..think I'll just have some more ..with chocolate ..and Bourgueil :) and..Bleu d'Auvergne :)..
 

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