Companies with potential, companies with none

[wheel]

In light of the 'next 100 years IBM' thread, what tech companies do you see as being continually innovative and still here in 50-100 years, the ones that can still come up with new tricks repeatedly? What ones won't be here in 50-100 years?

Still here:
IBM
HP
Apple
Linux (not a company, but as an entity somehow.)

Who? I don't remember them.
Google (one trick pony. As soon as a better ad venue comes along, they're toast.)
Facebook (one trick pony)
MS (Depending on an OS for your income, not good)
Intel/AMD (someone will come out with new hardware, they get superseded).

[LifeinAsia]

I'll suggest AOL for the list. Not because it's being continually innovative, but because it just won't die!

I'll go out on a limb and say Amazon, although it seems like it's morphing into some sort of cloud retailing instead of a direct seller.

And WebmasterWorld! :)

[lucy24]

Remember when HP traded their unwanted GUI to Apple for a bunch of worthless stock? Both sides had to be saying Oh, man. I can't believe we unloaded that pile of ### on those suckers. And here they both are.

Inescapable question: how many of today's hot companies have dangerously low truck numbers? (I'm told it's called a "bus number" in the UK to preserve the assonance.) F'rinstance, what happens to Microsoft when Bill Gates 2.0 announces that he's going to be a musician? If a company is big enough, will inertia keep it alive forever, even if they haven't done anything new in anyone's lifetime?

[johnhh]

Um interesting cross-border difference, I always thought a truck was a lorry or heavy goods vehicle, and a bus number the number of a public transport vehicle.

You only have to look at Bebo, who's original owners have returned, to see what happens if it's effectively a one/two man band.

It depends on the dominance of low truck numbers. As an American banker once said to me "we consider the company you work for to be at the teenage stage" and that was not a small company !

AS companies mature the relevance of the low truck numbers should be diluted if they are clever and bring more numbers aboard

[walkman]

AOL is a few years away from being dissolved. Their only money making entity is...dial up!

Goog has a lot of money to reinvent itself a few times.
Facebook might too, assuming they start making billions in profit.
MS will be here for a long time. Remember, businesses don't mind paying for a 'peace of mind.'
Intel is investing very heavily so don't know but it could happen.

[lexipixel]

Qualcom

[graeme_p]

@lucy, I think you mean Xerox, not HP. I agree with you about the succession problem. MS would be OK without Gates short to medium term, but long term is quite likely to make a strategic blunder (like buying Yahoo would have been).

I doubt Linux will be around in a hundred years: its a technology and technologies get outdated - I use Linux and think its the best there is for now, but better will come along.

I actually do think Intel will survive. Some form of design and fab of micro-circuits (maybe finally optical ones by then?) will be needed. The industry is also protected from new entrants by huge capital costs and patent thickets (combined with cross licensing agreements) so it will always be in the hands of current incumbents.

[lexipixel]

Sorry, it's "Qualcomm" (two m's)...

They aren't on most people's radar, and few people realize the are the developers of the Eudora email client and server software, (they open sourced Eudora and give it away free now), and that that Qualcomm was spun out of "Linkabit" (which became "L-3 Communications") and that Qualcomm owns patents and technology in nearly every handheld device on the planet -- they were into "connectivity, internet and email" early on.

This is a company that has made all the right moves and evolved with the online and telecom markets.

[graeme_p]

Patents expire after 20 years. We do not even know whether the patent system will be the same (or even exist) in a hundred years time (think how different it is from a hundred years ago).

Lasting for a hundred years is not about technology (which will change) or management (which will change). Its having the right corporate culture that will do it.

[walkman]

Lasting for a hundred years is not about technology (which will change) or management (which will change). Its having the right corporate culture that will do it.

And part of that is always investing so new patents keep you ahead.

[lexipixel]

I'll suggest AOL for the list. Not because it's being continually innovative, but because it just won't die!

If AOL wasn't around what would post-dotcom-bust tech day traders have to short?

But, yeah -- they'll hang around as long as there are +70 year olds still paying dial-up fees they signed on for in the 90's.

In 100 years archeologists digging in landfills will find caches of tin cased AOL CD disks and conclude it was some kind of virus laden telecomm software that was ordered buried by the World Government.