Mini Ice Age Alert

[Old_Honky]

It had to happen.
[bit.ly ]The register

What will the global warmist industry do now? Perhaps we'll all be encouraged to use more fossil fuels, dig up the peat bogs and eat plenty of beans in the hope that this will counteract the cooling.

[Leosghost]

Lewis Page ..his conclusions are pure FUD..according to Lewis ..there is more of a radiation problem with your wristwatch than in Japan..

His military pieces are not much more accurate and just as biased.

I think they keep him around for commentary "bait" ..or to run the tea swindle.

[jecasc]

The author of the article is Lewis Page. So far everything I have read from this guy on "The Register" has been rubish.

He has a history of cherry picking facts and presenting cautious theories and speculations by scientists about what could and could not happen as proven facts as long as it suits his agenda.

[tangor]

Might look a bit further... NASA is part of the global (pick term of choice) and they are in near agreement that "cooling" is the future: [solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...]

Anyone remember the 1960s? Global Cooling was the rage back then... read all the popular pulp sci-fi
from that period. :)

As for Japan, radiation, and wristwatches... that's also mostly accurate (in part because the nuclear industry as set the threat bar so INCREDIBLY LOW...

[incrediBILL]

Read real science, we've been in global warming since the last ice age, ocean levels have been rising for tens of thousands of years which is why anthropologists have found ancient settlements under water off several coasts.

Ice ages are cyclical, this is nothing new and according to the repetition of the patterns we're close to another one.

[tangor]

Popular global weather terror in fiction, politics, media, or belief, is also cyclical... and changes about as often as the weather does. :)

Real science even says so.

[jecasc]

Like I suspected earlier. A typical Lewis Page article.

Here a statement from the scientist he cited - from the Guardian:

The next solar cycle – the 11-year pattern when dark spots appear on the sun's surface – may be delayed or even go into "hibernation" for a while, according to US scientists.

But this does not mean a new ice age is coming, said astronomer Frank Hill of the US National Solar Observatory. "We have not predicted a 'little ice age'," Hill said, speaking from an astronomical meeting in New Mexico. "We have predicted something going on with the sun."

[guardian.co.uk...]

[Rugles]

A typical Lewis Page article.

I see these kinds of writers in North American media too. They ignore a 1000 signals of changing weather and cherry pick one item that reinforces their entrenched position.

Just like the Climategate "scandal". Some people still cite it as evidence that there is a conspiracy to separate them from their precious air pollution. Yet, several studies and inquiries in the USA and the UK have said the data was NOT manipulated at all. They completely ignore that part of the story. Amazing.

[graeme_p]

The data was not manipulated, just hidden.

To quote from the Times:

Phil Willis, the committee’s Liberal Democrat chairman, told The Times: “There is no reason why Professor Jones should not resume his post. He was certainly not co-operative with those seeking to get data, but that was true of all the climate scientists.”

[timesonline.co.uk ]

In other words it is usual for climate scientists are secretive.

Also, can you point me to where and how adequate back-testing of the global warming models has been done. AFAIK they use a few decades of back-testing, including some dubious data, to make predictions of what will happen several centuries from now. In other words its a lot less well tested than the financial risk models that told us a few years ago that the banks were solid and the chances of system problems were tiny.

[thecoalman]

Anyone familiar with this topic realizes there isn't much argument about whether the globe has warmed, what does come into question is the extent and cause. As far as the data goes all of it is manipulated, they have too because of issues with the quality of it. What has been shown is often there is warm bias injected into the adjustments, there is great example from Darwin airport in Australia.

The raw temperature readings from this station is pretty flat lined except for a distinct shift downward around 1940. It's obvious that something has changed the readings such as if the thermometer was moved. You need to adjust this but the adjustments produced a upward trend.

As far as the integrity of the pro AGW scientist keep in mind Phil Jones only escaped criminal prosecution because the UK had a very short statute of limitations for this crime. If you want a great explanation of what "hide the decline" means here it is. The professor giving this lecture is from the pro AGW crowd:

[youtube.com...]


Still think they haven't been deceptive? If you can agree they at least have been deceptive then to what purpose?

I know there is lot of people familiar with data integrity and technically savvy, for your reading pleasure I'd suggest HARRY_READ_ME.txt

[Rugles]

Anyone familiar with this topic realizes there isn't much argument about whether the globe has warmed, what does come into question is the extent and cause.

This is it exactly. Except too many people are not there yet.

You can talk about faking data all you like. However, its harder to fake pictures of Glaciers over time. Or the fact that way up in the far north of Canada. On an extremely remote island in the Arctic, they are building a giant ore mine and a freakin' railroad, a large airport and a large port for the cargo ships to take the ore to Europe. It will be the farthest north a railroad ever been constructed, by a long way. It is all being built by private companies.

These private companies know that with less ice and a longer summer it is now a feasible project. They are spending billions on this project.

So clearly these people who are spending billions are convinced there will be less Arctic ice in the future and longer summers.

[thecoalman]

You can talk about faking data all you like. However, its harder to fake pictures of Glaciers over time.

The glaciers are whole topic by themselves, they are growing in some areas and in other areas where they are shrinking like India increased particulate emissions (air pollution) may be the cause.

[news.discovery.com...]
Perched on the soaring Karakoram mountains in the Western Himalayas, a group of some 230 glaciers are bucking the global warming trend. They're growing.

I think you need to be really careful about accepting events as symptoms of global warming especially since the media is saturated with doom and gloom reports. We have very accurate satellite imagery going back to 1979 that shows a steady decline in the ice extent in the arctic but what happened before then? All the observations before then were no where near as extensive. 30 years is a very short time to observe something in the natural world.

[tangor]

Folks will pick and chose which "reports" they accept. Been that way since the Bubonic Plague.

[Rugles]

It is only "some" of the Himalayan Glaciers that are gaining, not all them. Now they are suggesting that reason most are retreating and some are not, could indeed be because of climate change, not inspite of climate change. Because of the shifting wind patterns.

From a more recent article on the subject:

"Overall in the Himalayas, the glaciers are retreating," Dirk Scherler, the lead author at the University of Potsdam in Germany, told Reuters.

[reuters.com...]

Glad I am not relying on the fresh water those glaciers provide. Because they really are in trouble.

[tangor]

Just info on data integrity...
[theregister.co.uk...]

[johnhh]

and the first rule of science = can the conclusions from a set of results be reproducable by a third party given the base data - see tangor's link above.

Actually the station data is what it is all about - for example, a monitoring station where a car park is built will , obviously, see an increase in heat - and its hey global warming !
Also how many stations are there - if the car park is the only one on a continent then the whole continent must be warming

note: extreme examples !

also when I was at university our "climate" lecturers said an ice-age was overdue , guess it still is , but the data we have goes back not even a century and the earth is billions of years old - so no modern data is statistically important enough.

So recent data wil tell you what you want to hear ( depending on the size of the grant offered I can give you any conclusion you want to read ! as long as I get a nice fat cheue for the next year )