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My rationale is twofold. First, a lot of folks are now living on some form of social/gov't assistance or their savings. And eventually those are going to run out. And that's going to make things go feral fast. Secondly I think there's many businesses just hanging on. When folks really start to cut to the bone, we're going to see a rash of businesses going belly up, people selling assets at firesale prices, and so on. And I think after that folks are going to be cautious for a while even after things start to come around.
I further believe that my predictions are just as likely to be as accurate as anyone who actually knows what they're talking about. :).
What say you?
And that's going to make things go feral fast
It's not even political as the figureheads and the bit part players may change ..but the same people who created the mess..are brought into / or left in place to save us from it ..and of course they need paying again by us to save us ..and in exchange for saving us from ourselves they need to control and intrude evermore ..Eric and his friends think this way ..they would save us from ourselves ..because they know best ..but first we must suffer in order to appreciate how we need to be saved ..and to accept the salvation ..willingly ..
jesuitical education ( they have nearly a two thousand year start on most as regards studying reactions of masses and groups and where to apply "levers" ) really is to be recommended as long as one does not fall into "belief" ..but then few of them really do anyway ( in any religion few of the guys at the top believe ..but the power is too seductive ) ..and just the ideology is attractive ..especially the "saviour complex"..one true answer for each member of humanity ..ring any bells eric ?
The problem they all have is when we dont blindly follow "leaders" of any side or "ism" or "credo" ..then we tend to actually help each other ..co-operate ..and look after each other ..for free ..and that is not the leaders plan ..at all ..
Enlightened self interest is something I read about nearly 5 decades ago ( R.Heinlein was the author who mentioned it in a book I read then )..made a huge amount of sense ..to me ..and I suspect it did to Brett and the early members here ..seems to fit the ethos of this place ..
Foo seems a fitting place to discuss this ( sorry wheel :)..I have dragged your thread into a wider discussion than you may have intended ..but ) I remember Digital Ghost saying that foo was the heart of WebmasterWorld ..
I think the longer one posts here the more one comes to realise the truth in Deans words ( miss ya DG..and a lot of other voices ) ..we used to discuss money less and laugh more ..
Even so ..Thanks for the question wheel ..thanks for this space Brett ..thanks to all the mods and admins and members who make it work ..and thanks to lawman Mike ..foo is important ..because some subjects are too important to be elsewhere.
Back on topic :) whether the next street to you falls into chaos ..or the next block ..or the next village or town or county or state or country ..will not affect your thinking ..unless you know of it ( if the town next to yours has food riots ..for whatever reason ( New Orleans anyone )..will it make an impact in your conciousness ? ..not if you dont hear/see it ..and if you think that you get the truth about what goes on in the next town ..ask the Chinese ..the same people who provide you with the "truth" ..provide their "truth"..and recently the Iranians showed that they ( or anyone else ..hackers ..or "the man" can shut twitter ) ..so develop your own private email contacts ( on addys you control )..as widespread as you can ..here at WebmasterWorld is a good place to start ..members are from everywhere..
Always have a plan B in case something goes TU..and better still have a plan C,D,E,F etc ..and way more than one source of information ..
Yes, there are places where things are nasty and getting nastier. But I tend to believe that the westernized style of living is progressing not retreating. I think there's too much inertia in it for the world to change dramatically in the near future. We've got western style living across North American and Europe, and my uninformed opinion is that China and India are moving that way as fast as they can. The rest of the world doesn't have the population or the resources to change that momentum.
We're going to have a bumpy recession, then in a 3-8 years we'll be out and back to 'normal'.
But take my predictions for what they're worth. I'm the same guy who once said "I don't see any commercial application to the internet". And now I are one.
But I tend to believe that the westernized style of living is progressing not retreating. I think there's too much inertia in it for the world to change dramatically in the near future. We've got western style living across North American and Europe, and my uninformed opinion is that China and India are moving that way as fast as they can. The rest of the world doesn't have the population or the resources to change that momentum.
Quantitative easing is still ongoing, which is affecting the value of the £. I'm going to Canada for New Year, and will get $1.67 CAD as the spot rate just now, compared to around $2.20 a couple of years ago.
Clearly, this is meant to be good for UK exporters and visitors to the UK... and help the country out of recession, but many over here believe we're still on very shaky ground... particularly in the case of our overly exposed banks.
A lot of paper wealth has disappeared, as long as there aren't any more big shocks (insolvent banks, governments defaulting on loans), I think recession (2 months of negative growth) won't apply to any of the major economies.
If we all worked a little harder and everything seemed a little more value for money, things may seem cheap again ;) At least in the short term.
Don't know what the future of the economy will be but I'm looking forward to discounts becoming rare again.
"super haves"
From my office, I look out across the runway at a popular tourist destination. The private jets are lined up this weekend, just like they are each year end. The marina that caters to "mega yachts" is full.
Hotels have a reasonable occupancy rate due to deep discounting.
Yet the roads are empty, the restaurants are empty, and my musician buddies have trouble finding a paying gig... A few days ago, one of the largest cruise ships docked here: a historic day according to the newspaper's front page - merchants were complaining: no sales.
Those "happy few" don't seem to feel the crunch, the regular visitors keep coming but don't spend a dime.
My plans B, C, and D are now respectively being readied for implementation, worked out and drafted. Don't think there is much of a question that the situation will get a lot worse before (if) it does improve again.
Edit: clarification
Also your concept of the world "westernising" is a good one, that should keep the world on a slow but upwards path.
I've heard the concern before about the increasing disparity between rich and poor, instead of my idea of a growing middle class. My response to that is the XBOX test. You don't get to call yourself poor if you own an XBOX :). I think really that what's changing is our definition of poor.
You don't get to call yourself poor if you own an XBOX :)
So then I can be poor if I only have a Wii and a PS2? Does this qualify me for some sort of government support? :)
I think in the US we will stop declining (losing jobs) by Feb 2010, and then a long flat time, then a slow recovery. At least the next big recession won't come for another 20 years if history is any guide.
Unfortunately, until people start being more employed my ecommerce site is likely to suffer.
I think in the US we will stop declining (losing jobs) by Feb 2010, and then a long flat time, then a slow recovery. At least the next big recession won't come for another 20 years if history is any guide.
Agreed. Well said.
We have a glut of commercial real estate. And, we are (believe it or not) going to continue to see major distruptions to the status quo due to new technologies. As always opportunities exist. Risk, however, is high. Clear, careful thinkers will need luck, too.
This recent little hiccup has done nothing to change the mind set of the leaders, markets seem to be recovering and the rich are making money again, so surely all must be well.
Problem is, that in each society around the world there are increasing numbers of people who are struggling more and more each day. Perhaps it is due to downsizing, perhaps an eager hunger for more profits, it may even be political - after all, why educate the less educated and make things harder for the "haves" who employ them cheaply - but whatever the reason those numbers are growing.
I have not looked at any research into insurance but with a growing number of self employed around the world, I do wonder whether enough have pension plans, health and other insurance, or is that something else which will bite us all in 30 - 40 years when that generation starts to retire. Or will retirement too be a thing of the past.
My outlook is not rosy at all, and I am not even a pessimist at heart but an optimist. I am not even sure whether it is possible to jump off the train we are all on, or even change the selfish, winner takes all and sod the rest direction we seem to be on.
after all, why educate the less educated and make things harder for the "haves" who employ them cheaply
Very "Brave New World" of you. I am for it as long as I get to be an Alpha Plus.
Things are definitely looking better
My personal take is politicians make a big mistake. Under heavy pressure most of them, in one way or another, 'predict/promise' recession will end next year. Respectively, most people plan to spend all their reserves in the next 6 months. But what will happen if unemployment steadily continues to increase throughout all the 2010?
The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000). In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month
In the UK, I found this:
The quarterly increase in unemployment is the smallest since spring 2008; the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen on the month and there has been a slight increase in the number of vacancies.
In Germany, Unemployment is 7.90%, that's down from 9.00% in 2008.
What countries are you looking at?
[edited by: lawman at 7:24 am (utc) on Dec. 31, 2009]
The two most prolific countries in producing offspring are China and India. There will come a time when in order to feed their population China will need to expand by annexing other smaller Asian countries and eventually armed conflict with the other big superpower India will occur. Millions will die as this is natures way of ensuring that some of the race survives.
I predict that long before that there will be an end to the "human right" to have children, perhaps a licence will be required to breed in most civilised countries and people who cannot afford to bring up children won't get the licence.
So then I can be poor if I only have a Wii and a PS2?
I believe that's correct. Because if you have enough money to buy a decent gaming system you wouldn't have a wii or a ps2. ;)
I blame my children (2 and 6 yrs). If they didn't love Wii so much they would spend more time with PythonTurtle learning things to make Dad rich so they could have a PS3 and Xbox360. Damn kids.
The long term problem is world overpopulation
I think I should just buy that Xbox AND PS3 and retire to my bunker. Nothing good can come of the next 20 years, you have all convinced me.
