1 Billion Mice

[engine]

1 Billion Mice [news.bbc.co.uk]

A Silicon Valley company has hailed as a major landmark the production of their one billionth computer mouse.

Quite an achievement!

But sounding the death knell for the device is Gartner analyst Steve Prentice who said "the mouse will no longer be mainstream in three to five years."

Nonsense, imho.
There are alternatives, but there is no cost-effective alternative coming just yet.

[jecasc]

the mouse will no longer be mainstream in three to five years.

Yeah right. What will we be using then? Joysticks?

It says:

Laptops and notebooks use a touch pad and are increasingly taking the place of the desktop computer.

Only that my laptops touch pad is deactivated and I have a USB mouse conected.

[pageoneresults]

Yeah right. What will we be using then? Joysticks?

In all serious, we'll be using touch surfaces. Have you seen the new HPs?

No, have you seen g-speak?

Oblong Industries
[oblong.com...]

I see myself in that environment in the next 18-24 months. In fact, I'm following the progress of g-speak closely along with other similar technologies. I like this high-tech geeky stuff. If I could move about freely throughout the day in the above type environment, I could rock my world. :)

RSI? What's that? g-speak is the next wave of computing.

[LifeinAsia]

The technology is there, but what about the cost? I don't see it being at a mainstream cost level that quickly.

But for a lot of day-to-day tasks, I don't see any advantage of that over a mouse. In fact, for most programmers jittery on caffeine, being able to brace their wrist against a hard surface to steady a mouse makes a lot more sense. :) (Prefect example- on the video when the guy is drawing a box, those edges aren't even close to being straight lines.)

[engine]

I'm serious, too. These types of technologies have been around for some time in some shape or form, yet they are not mainstream. They are too expensive to implement, and waving your arms around is a lot harder than moving a finger on the mouse.
The only advantage it may give is to added fitness (not a bad thing imho).

It's why touchscreens don't work in the standard desk and monitor environment. Holding your arm up for anything other than a few minutes at a time is impossible.

Touchreens are great for small, handheld devices or for information touchsreen-based kiosks, ATMs, gaming, or industrial control, where a mouse would be impractical.

It still comes back to hardware cost for the mainstream. The mouse rules.

[Yoshimi]

@pageoneresults what ecxactly do you see as the office and home based applucations for this? Certainly my office doesn't have room for us to all be waving our arms around, not many of us would be willing to stand up all day, and it won't speed up our word processing and presentation creation. In fact it just looks very tiem consuming and not very economical (economy of movement is very important if you want to maintain the speed of a task)

I just can't see it working any better than a mouse in a word processing environment?

[pageoneresults]

The mouse rules.

The traditional methods of computing are going to change rapidly over the next few years. I've had two back surgeries due to "traditional" seating arrangements. From those experiences I've learned that movement is essential if you are going to survive a long time career in Internet marketing.

I've been through a host of chairs, keyboards, mice, computers, etc. I've had this current mouse now for over a year. It's a wireless laser mouse and works just fine for my needs. But, I'm more of a keyboard user and will stay away from that mouse as much as possible. It serves certain functions that are easily done via the mouse but for the most part I'm a keyboard person.

I guess my time in the Navy working in Dog Zebra conditions and having that large glass table top on the bridge with all those neat little models to move about had an influence on me. :)

After watching the Presidential Race on the major news channels, I was totally impressed with their use of this technology. I mean, if you watched them closely, that level of interaction is where we are going. We will become one with the machine. We will be assimilated. ;)

1 Billion Mice?

And I thought it was plastic bags we had to worry about.

[edited by: pageoneresults at 4:29 pm (utc) on Dec. 3, 2008]

[dcheney]

Predictions of the end of the keyboard (and later mouse) as input devices have been popular for decades now. Bottom line is they won't be replaced until something better (that actually works) is cheap.

Voice/sound-based interfaces still are horrid - plus they will never work in customer support type settings (i.e., talking on the phone while researching).

Touch-based interfaces just aren't ready yet and suffer from a major design flaw - namely dirty fingers.

Glove or similar interfaces are great for specialized settings - but just make no sense for most folks (just trying wearing a glove and then trying to use a keyboard...)

[LifeinAsia]

I can also imagine all kinds of disaster scenarios as well.

(Fred & Dave are working on a sensitive design that requires minute precision)
Fred: Almost got it...
Dave: Steady...
(Janet walks in to the rooms and waves)
Janet: Hi guys!
(Fred waves back)
Fred: Hi Jan- Oh for the love of &*(@*&^$)!##@~!
Dave: You just screwed up 2 hours of work again!

(2 hours later)
Fred: Almost got it...
Dave: Steady...
(Mosquito lands on Fred and he absent-mindedly slaps it)
Dave: You did it again!

[edited by: LifeinAsia at 4:31 pm (utc) on Dec. 3, 2008]

[incrediBILL]

The problem is people perceive the touch technology as being a vertical terminal on your desk, think 45 degree angle close to keyboard level, or the desktop itself.

Think iPod, Blackberry, yada yada - the touch screens are all over the place.

Anyone that's ever played video poker for hours in Vegas using the touch screen instead of those buttons on the front of the machine already has a feel for the future of desktop touch computing.

For instance, organizing a pile of pictures on a mult-touch screen with your hands is amazingly fast opposed to using a mouse to move them one at a time.

Additionally, drawing on a touch surface seems way more natural and intuitive than doing that hand-eye coordination between the mouse and screen.

I don't think it's going to be an either/or situation, you can still have a mouse and a touch screen used in combination.

IMO, the future will be less typing and more speech 2 text applications, touch screen, and of course some type of pointing device like the mouse or maybe more like the Wii remote, perhaps in a glove form.

Minority report here we come...

[Yoshimi]

Speech to text will never work either in a corporate environment, I sit next to 3 senior managers all of whom send a number of emails etc that they wouldn't want me to know about, for that matter I don't want the person next to me being able to hear me respond by email to a complaint made against me etc (for instance) While typing is not completely secure, and someone can read over your shoulder, it is a lot more private then your telephone conversations are, and that's one of the reasons people will use emails instead of calling in some instances.

[eelixduppy]

Indeed an achievement! I cannot quite imagine that many physical objects.

related article: [webmasterworld.com...]

[wheel]

I can remember working on DOS, learning about mice and thinking WTH good is that? Do I LOOK like I'm in startrech? I can run the keyboard faster than that thing anyway.

{ I also remember however, telling my boss at the time that I saw no commercial application to the 'internet'. it's not like we were going to sell widgets as the result of having some computers hooked up.}

The end of the mouse has to come. It's ultimately not very natural, neither is a keyboard. Some combination of touch screen and some other input I expect has to replace our current technology. I think when that comes it really will spell the end of paper.

[g1smd]

I haven't used a "traditional" mouse for ~6 or ~7 years or more - used the "red dot" on an IBM ThinkPad for several years and then a Touchpad on the 3 or 4 laptops after that. I haven't owned a desktop PC for more than a decade now.

[rocker]

Some combination of touch screen and some other input I expect has to replace our current technology.

..some other input..

Eye scanning. To activate scan process simply hold down the control and i key, :), as you scan the page. When you find the destination for the curser you release the keys.

I watched a special on tv where that technology was used to see if consumers where looking at the product during a commercial. A small red dot showed where they were looking.

I was amazed at the percentage of guys that checked out every part of the womans body. Very few initially seen the can of diet pop in her hand.

[willybfriendly]

The end of the mouse has to come. It's ultimately not very natural...

Actually, I think a mouse is the closest thing there is to drawing lines in the dirt with one's finger - a basic part of human communication since time immemorial.

It is probably more "natural" than using a stylus and clay tablets, a quill and scroll, or pencil and paper.

I don't see the imminent end of the mouse as an input device.

[travelin cat]

I haven't used a mouse in about 10 years. I use a tablet and "draw" like I am using a pen. No carpal bs and it's about as natural a feeling as you can get.

The tablet sits partially on the keyboard mount and partially on my lap for great control. My arms rest on the arm rests of my chair so no fatigue.

There are even new tablets that have an LCD monitor built in to trace over.

[deMorte]

I can't see mouse and keyboard combo replaced anywhere in the near future. Other techonologies, even if they are more user-friendly, seem way too complicated and expensive.
If I manage to break my keyboard or mouse, I can fix it or change it myself with minimal cost. Let's see you fix the facial recognition doo-hickey on your computer.

I personally would steer clear of voice recognition. I can imagine how hoarse my throat would be if I went "Left, forward, jump, strafe left... FIRE! FIRE!" for an hour straight when playing the new shoot-em-up on my computer.

[onepointone]

I Hate touch pads, verbal, etc. I LOVE my laser mouse, I can use it on rough surfaces. on my fat belly, etc. Mouse rules forever!