Bets - How low will the £ go?

[nomis5]

The $ / £ has plumetted to new lows, currently 1.76. This is spectacular news for us UK people. Our earnings have increased by more then 12% in less than a month.

How far will it plummet? What's your guess? After all, if it went down by another 10% that would put almost every other factor into the dustbin.

For starters, here is my guess, and I've been suggesting a fall in the £ in at least two other posts which have been poo pooed.

1.71 by early October.

This is important for us UK based people. After all,if you believe the £ will fall further in the next couple of months and are willing to act on that, then postpone next month's payment.

I worked in the FX section of the largest independent bank in the world, defined their FX dealing system for them. I know this for certain after many years in the business - I know nothing for certain about where the £ will go! But i have this gut feeling. And I know the moderates of this world will point out if I'm wrong.

"Faint not nor fear, but go out to the storm and the action....".

It's served me well even when I've been wrong.

[malcolmcroucher]

6 weeks to elections ... democrats are notorious for policy that favors a stronger dollar . So if Obama wins we could hopefully see some something like the Clinton administration in which it ended up with a surplus .

On a republican note , both Bush camps have ended with a deficit.

What does this mean for the dollar : it means it could rally stronger with a democrat and weaker with mccain .

Therefore impacting the dollar pound.

My instinct tells me a rally in dollar is in favor of the upcoming election results as people are betting whose gonna win , well at least the banks are. I think many people are betting on the charisma of Obama.

although i think after listening to the results of mccains new vice president it could be a close race.

[bateman_ap]

This is spectacular news for us UK people

Not when I pay contractors in $!

[topr8]

This is spectacular news for us UK people

not when you've got used to fantastic usa holidays on the cheap in the recent past!

[piatkow]

I'm glad I my hosting fees are paid in GBP.

[Lord Majestic]

I think we will see 1.5-1.6 USD per GBP - this is how it was for a while historically, that 2 USD per GBP rate was totally unjustified as UK's economy is very weak, probably weakest among USA-EU countries.

[jimbeetle]

The $ / £ has plumetted to new lows, currently 1.76.

Well, everything is relative. Your new low is still fantastically high for us folks on the left side of the pond. And it is just the dollar picking up a small bit of the strength it's lost over the past few years. If it gets back to around 1.5 (as LM points out that's how we always ballparked it), maybe we can start coming over to visit again. Or I might be able to pick up a new pair of Church's shoes; at $350 to $400 they're worth it, $800 not so much.

Better yet, let's get it back down to the 1.15 or so it was back in the mid 80s. A buck for a 16 oz pint in New York, 1.15 for an Imperial pint in London. Now that's parity.

[MatthewHSE]

malcolmcroucher, another perspective to your comments is that economies take some time to build or destroy, meaning Clinton inherited the Reagan/Bush economy and took the credit for it, while George W. Bush inherited the Clinton economy and is getting the blame.

I could say more, but I think this is about as far as I can go and stay within the boundaries for the forum! ;)

[BeeDeeDubbleU]

I was planning on going to California on holiday in November but this has decided me against it. It will have a serious effect on travel companies.