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A just released study predicts, the Net will face meltdown by 2010. And when that happens, innovations like Google and YouTube may not happen anymore and e-commerce too will take a beating. The reason: The sheer scale of data exceeds the ability of the network to cope.
But I would probably believe it if the report mentioned the 'meltdown' was due to the rising temperature. :)
[edited by: Habtom at 7:17 am (utc) on Nov. 21, 2007]
I was a student of laws in the university of my town in 1995 but I really liked computers so I went with a friend to his computing lessons in the university. There was a class about general computing where devices, systems, peripherals and so on were explained and these days the teacher explained connectivity and he said something I never forget:
Today networks have reached its maximun capability because is physically impossible to transmit above 9600 bauds.
Then, first with data compression and second with digital protocols (as DSL), thins evolved way far than nobody in the classroom imagined.
The study was done by Nemertes Research Group, an independent research firm that specialises in quantifying the business impact of technology.
The research is based on in-depth analysis of Internet and IP infrastructure and current and projected traffic.
Any idea as to the credibility of this company that did the research? I am sure there won't be smoke without fire. There might be some reason to their prediction. But what most of these doomsayers fail to account for is the human ingenuity. A breakthrough in technology in the interim would make a mockery of the prediction in the hindsight.
[edited by: McMohan at 12:51 pm (utc) on Nov. 21, 2007]
The report's authors are either idiots, or, were paid to draw these conclusions. That said, the internet does not have the capacity for everyone to watch their favorite TV programs by video streaming on demand and, given the development of personal video recorders, such use (by the BBC and others) should not be encouraged.
Kaled.
Said in Nineteen-Ninety-Five?! Is that a typo, Lexur? In '95 I was already operating at twice that speed - 19.2K!
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Forgot to be on-topic...
I'm guessing that next week the researchers will present a solution to the "meltdown" - one that requires outsourcing to India! ;)
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I'm guessing that next week the researchers will present a solution to the "meltdown" - one that requires outsourcing to India!
In case the source of this research influenced you to say so - the research was done by an IL - USA based firm and this source is just one of the hundreds that reported it today.
[edited by: McMohan at 5:24 pm (utc) on Nov. 21, 2007]
this source is just one of the hundreds that reported it today.
I admit that I am guilty as charged... :(
And by posting this, I believe I'm helping to fulfill LifeinAsia's prophecy! ;)
The Internet is like oil companies, there is too much invested in it to let it melt down. They will keep building it bigger, faster, better, anything to keep the spice flowing . . . .
let it melt! - the football is bad!
Yeah, well, all your base are belong to us.
:-P
When is the tide going to turn? Or is the price decrease just an example of market forces at work?
paying less for broadband
You mean you're still paying for it?
All these predictions are pointless, and wrong. As many have pointed out on the thread, the people that actually run the networks (probably just a couple of geeks in a broom cupboard) will simply upgrade their kit.
Did you know, apparently J. Edgar Hoover once wanted to close the U.S. Patent Office because he thought everything had already been invented?
Must be true, guy in the pub told me.
You mean you're still paying for it?
Aren't most people? I've been offered so-called *free* broadband by my phone provider, but I know it ain't really free :)
Ted Stevens, internets expert
The rate of uptake will depend on the rate that businesses put their global warming urgency into action to reduce business air travel.
so-called *free* broadband by my phone provider
If it costs no extra than you're already paying, that's free. A number of companies in the UK do it, Sky, Orange, Carphone Warehouse, and AOL I think. Probably more.
It's a series of tubes. And if you don't understand, those tubes can be filled
So the cupboard geeks will get more tubes, and bigger ones.
So the cupboard geeks will get more tubes, and bigger ones
Everything costs money. It costs more to buy bandwidth on a fast tube than a slow one. The internet is not a free resource but a network of financial contracts between ISPs. As in everything you get what you pay for.
The point I was making was that the price differential between the network tiers will increase with the big users being prepared to spend more in order to keep their speed.
Bill Gates : "..there is no future for the internet..."
and "...640 kb is the maximum we need for memory in a computer..."
So who cares ...
Global warming causes more freak weather destroying company networks and fibre optic lines under the ocean.
*******STOP**************
Scientists in California create human embryos with special powers (oooh heros) to save the world
*******STOP**************
A magnetic shift in the poles causes hundreds of species to commit suicide as they migrate into the oceans.
*******STOP**************
Bioengineering released yet another viral strain into the world causing wide spread human destruction. We'll say that two chimps caused it.
*******STOP**************
I've got my darn company tax to do!
*******STOP**************
***STOP***
Everything costs money. It costs more to buy bandwidth on a fast tube than a slow one
Correct. It's also a supply/demand issue. As more bandwidth becomes available it will become cheaper. Remember the days when you spend 300 quid on a 300Mb hard drive?
More bandwidth becomes available by technology increasing in capability. The more common it becomes the cheaper it is to produce, so supply goes up. Remember when you spent 100 quid on a P75 CPU?
Costs go down - spec goes up. Remember you old mobile phone tarrif, free weekend calls only, now cheaper tarrif gives a better handset and anytime minutes to anywhere?
Stop dooming and glooming and look toward the future. You should learn from the quotes in this thread not to believe any predicted doom or gloom.
I'm not into doom and gloom, and I agree that technology will improve, and market forces will make things cheaper. But all technologies tend to run into a bottleneck eventually. All I'm saying is that the internet is likely to develop into a two-tier network, with those prepared to pay more getting the faster connectivity.
It's already happening to some extent. If you want fast international DNS lookup, then you need to pay more to be with a registrar or DNS manager who has name servers in several locations. If you want fast download times then you have to pay more to be with a host with quality internet connections.
Many people aren't aware of this of course, and it's noticeable that many large popular hosting companies do not mention their network connections. One can only assume that it's something they don't want to draw attention to.
> Said in Nineteen-Ninety-Five?! Is that a typo, Lexur? In '95 I was
> already operating at twice that speed - 19.2K!
Has to be a typo, I was using US Robotics 19.2 modems on the Amiga back in 1990.
In 1894, the Times of London (sic) estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded
that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan's third-story windows. A public health and sanitation crisis of almost unimaginable dimensions loomed.
I think this says it all.
As you stated, the internet could be categorised now into 2 tiers, the higher tier being a more 'premium' service, although an extra 50ms on my DNS lookup wouldn't bother me personally.
My comments were really relating to the original post, that the internet will eventually collapse, when it clearly and obviously won't.
In fact, the OP stated that Google would go out of business, I would theorise that they would pay to keep the net going just so they could stay in business!
ronin, nice quote! ;)
