Now the news.this just in.economists remain.

....clueless....

[weeks]

In a sad attempt to predict the future, this week The Wall Street Journal surveyed economists and found...

The latest WSJ.com survey of economists, conducted in the days following the gloomy Sept. 7 employment report, pegged the recession risk at 36%, up from a 28% probability a month earlier. Three-fourths of the 52 economists responding to the recession question put the odds at or above 30% and 11 put the odds at 50% or better. The range was wide -- from 5% to 90%.

Sad to say, the WSJ took an average of the opinions to come up with a conclusion and then reported it as news.

[vincevincevince]

5% risk of recession = whilst we are heading toward recession I believe the regulatory and market responses will avert it.
90% risk of recession = we are heading toward recession but I don't think the regulatory and market response will avert it.

[weeks]

Vince, good analysis as any.

It's kind of tough to read those "market forces," however. I do think that just about everyone who wants a cellphone has got one now and that those who bought those large houses are not as happy with them as they thought they would be.

But, a recession? Gee, I don't know. This might be a shock to some, but there are other things other than cellphones and real estate that might be bought and sold.