I am by training and nature a historian more than a prognosticator, but hopefully some more visionary souls will have something to add.
Some things I expect to see in the CMS space in 2014.
- All major CMS will ship with mobile-first, responsive designs. WP is already there. Others will follow. This an such an imperative that it's almost tautological. By the end of 2014, if you aren't responsive out of the box, you won't be a major CMS.
- True WYSIWYG out of the box will become common in 2014 and expected by most users by 2015. Drupal 8 alphas are already there and others will follow. HTML5 and improvements in the widely-used CKEditor and the newer Aloha editor make this a lot easier to implement and most players will follow suit. This actually finally gets us closer to how Tim Berners-Lee imagined the web would function.
- Decoupling of front and back ends. More and more, CMS will truly focus on the content management side of things and leave the presentation technology to others. We're already seeing sites using a classic CMS backend but building a front end with Angular or whatever.
- Wordpress will not achieve 25% market share no matter what lorax says [webmasterworld.com]. It's at 19% now and though it is the default choice for new bloggers, there just isn't enough growth to add 30% to it's market share in one year. I think it will expand though as they are already out the door with a mobile-first responsive base theme... but I'm going to say they will only add 1% to 2% to market share.
- Drupal will lose market share because of Drupal 8, but you will see it on more and more enterprise sites. This is not because it will be hard to use for end users (quite the contrary, it will be easy), but because unless something radical changes before release, it may be hard to run it on the cheapest shared hosting and it will be targeted at the VPS and above crowd.
- Joomla will increasingly have trouble finding a home. Not good enough for the enterprise market, Drupal will take that. And with every release, WP encroaches further on Joomla's territory. Joomla will be the big loser.
Surely some other members are better forecasters that I am. What are your predictions?