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The relevant numbers are not number of pages on the site or number of unique visitors. What you need to know are
- number of raw page views (preferably at peak times)
- time required to render a page.
This would include bot traffic. So if you have some bad bots, they could be requesting thousands of pages and that won't even show up in something like Google Analytics.
So the question is, do you believe you have bottlenecks that need caching, or are you just doing it prophylactically in case you get slashdotted or dugg?
So if you want to test how much you can serve up, you want to look into something like Apache Bench or a host of other free tools that let you stress test your server and figure out how many concurrent users it can handle.
If you find that your code takes a long time to render, you typically want to profile it to figure out where the bottlenecks are (for PHP, for example, you use xDebug + CacheGrind and it tells you how long each piece of code is taking so you can figure out where your holdups are).
Finally, if you are finding that you're having bottlenecks, you can also look for slow DB queries. For MySQL you can generate a slow query log so you'll see what activities are killing the server.