Over 10 million ADSL subscribers in Japan

[takagi]

At the end of December there were 10,272,052 ADSL subscribers in Japan; 360,746 more than at the end of November. NTT grew with 128,415 to 3,774,123 and YahooBB had a monthly increase of some 141,000 to 3,694,000.

ADSL. . . 5,645,728 (Dec. 2002) . . . 10,272,052 (Dec. 2003)
Cable . . 1,954,000 (Dec. 2002) . . . .2,428,000 (Nov. 2003)
FTTH. . . . 206,189 (Dec. 2002) . . . . .815,402 (Nov. 2003)
Dial up. 21,188,000 (Dec. 2002) . . . 19,260,000 (Nov. 2003)

A recently released survey confirmed the popularity of ADSL:

People accessing the Internet via ADSL (asymmetric digital subscriber line) accounted for 41.7% of the sample in September. Dial-up access followed at 35%. Only 4% accessed the Net via fiber-optic lines.

Source: Broadband Overtakes Dial-Up Internet Access in Japan: Survey [neasia.nikkeibp.com]

See also:
�gYahoo! BB�h Comprehensive Broadband Service Progress Report [softbank.co.jp]

DSL government statistics [soumu.go.jp] (Japanese only).

Internet government statistics November 2003 [soumu.go.jp] (Japanese only).

[kazonik]

Hi Takagi-san,

Thanks for the info!

Looks like NTT and BBtec are neck & neck.

[takagi]

The increase of DSL subscribers since the end of November 2003 was about 360,000, keeping the similar monthly increasing pace of 300,000 in the last six months. ... DSL service providers always welcome roughly 500,000 newcomers, but they are facing 200,000 cancellations monthly in these several months. That is why the monthly net increase remains about 300,000.

Source: DSL Subscribers Reach 10 Million, But Cancellations Also Increase to 3 Million [neasia.nikkeibp.com]

[bill]

Interesting...I think we may be seeing these broadband providers cannibalizing each other here. I'm still seeing the YahooBB people on the streets, along with others hawking essentially the same service. A few I have noticed are offering really good startup offers that are time limited (only for the first few months). Might we be seeing people signing up for one service and then jumping to another once the cheaper introductory rates are finished?

[takagi]

It has been forecast that 40 percent of ADSL users will change to a fiber-optic service.

Although originally about 10,000 yen per month, the price is now not all that different from that of the ADSL services provided in apartments.

Fiber-optic Internet subscriptions have been further boosted through sales campaigns, a number of which offer installation that normally costs about 30,000 yen either at half price or free.

source: Fiber-optic chases ADSL's Net lead [yomiuri.co.jp]

[bill]

I've got fiber-optic...it's great and all, but I don't see the average consumer getting hyped up about it. Not yet at least. I know 3 people in my neighborhood who got new connections in the last 2 months, and none of them went for the fiber-optic. When I asked them why it was the old price/name-brand provider factors much more than speed. The less savvy users are being told that 12Mbps connections are more than they will ever need...and there is no really exceptionally appealing broadband content in Japan that will push a lot of people to switch. That 40% switchover may happen eventually...but not for a few years at this pace.

I'm still interested in the reasons for the 500,000 suscribers vs. 200,000 cancellations per/month...any ideas?

[lukasz]

My experience with 12M ADSL was that the max speed I ever got was 4M and it was for very short while. Add a legendary Yahoo BB customer support and you will understand both 200000 cancelled subscription p/m and switch towards FTTH.

[percentages]

It appears Japan is ahead of the US again (by %).

But what is more evident is that the preaching of the "old hat" Jacob Nielsen types are even more outdated for commercial sites.

It will be even more difficult for us webmasters to find a good balance of technology in the next couple of years. The high speed crowd have one set of expectations, but are we to bow to their wallets and forsake the lower end audience?

[bill]

Add a legendary Yahoo BB customer support and you will understand both 200000 cancelled subscription p/m and switch towards FTTH.

LOL. That truly can't account for them all...;) FTTH services don't have the customer service infrastructure that a YahooBB does, but I'll admit that with cable and fiber the connection speeds are pretty constant.

The high speed crowd have one set of expectations, but are we to bow to their wallets and forsake the lower end audience?

In Japan and Korea you can almost do that...the percentage of broadband users is getting up there. A lot of customers here get bored if you don't have some big bandwidth hogging flashy-dancing-singing thingy on your home page...A lot of people here are being brainwashed to think that's the norm.

[takagi]

The missing year end data for other internet connections is now also available [soumu.go.jp], so here is a updated list:

ADSL. . . 5,645,728 (Dec. 2002) . . . 10,272,052 (Dec. 2003) 
Cable . . 1,954,000 (Dec. 2002) . . . .2,475,000 (Dec. 2003) 
FTTH. . . . 206,189 (Dec. 2002) . . . . .894,259 (Dec. 2003) 
Dial up. 21,188,000 (Dec. 2002) . . . 19,186,000 (Dec. 2003)

[Josefu]

Thanks for the thread, Takagi : )

Japan's high broadband use is one of the reasons why I decided on using heavier content. Most NA and European Webmasters don't understand that yet. Still, there's a large dial-up market to deal with - but at what rate are people 'switching over'? I suppose one could plan his 'site strategy' on that...