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If I could answer that one authoritatively I'd probably be hired by another company very quickly. ;) There are several companies in Japan who would love to know the definitive answer to that one.
I'm afraid that the most you'll get is speculation on this level. This has probably been one of the questions that a lot of the other SEs in Japan (aside from Google and Yahoo) have used in their market research. And they aren't likely to share their results with us.
The short history of the Internet in Japan has shown us that the Japanese public are reluctant to switch to new SEs. The only time they have is when there has been a groundswell of adoption. The Google groundswell is evidence of this. Google was really just picking up the pieces of all the failed engines and Yahoo hardly budged.
A new SE would have to build up a massively popular public community in addition to having clearly superior SERPs. And any market strategy would have to consist of a very long-term plan. There's no way a newcomer could come in and jump into any of the top 3 spots at this rate. A battle of attrition would be the best a newcomer could hope for I'm afraid.
For "The Google groundswell is evidence of this. Google was really just picking up the pieces of all the failed engines and Yahoo hardly budged. ", could it be possible that you explain this sentence in detail?
In addition, how can i understand "a massively popular public community"in a SE?
Thank you, very much!
Google was providing a better back end to a lot of engines/portals and that helped squeeze a lot of the smaller players out of the market. Google's growth in Japan, in part, came from the demise of the smaller competitors.
Yahoo Japan was always the market leader and despite Google's attempts and the changes in the market they are still on top.
In addition, how can i understand "a massively popular public community" in a SE?
I heard that Yahoo's style is more suitable for Japanese users. For exsample, it provides many other services besides search and different users can meet their different needs on it. However, though google may give a better result, it is too simple.