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Wild prediction:
AOL goes to a combo of Overture and Google in six months.
Hmm. I don't know how that would happen unless the paid for results of Google weren't in the picture. How close to MSN is Google? Since AOL is so anti-MSN, I doubt they would have anything to do with Google if they even remotely thought they were in bed with MSN.
From the article, "While Mr. Rashtchy [a stock analyst] is confident AOL will renew the Overture deal, some things may change. AOL is probably insisting on more-favorable terms, which could be one reason negotiations seem to be dragging on. Instead of splitting revenue 50-50 with Overture, AOL might get 60% of the revenue under a new deal, Mr. Rashtchy suggested.""
Also, from the article,"Overture's renewal of its Yahoo contract appears less certain. CIBC World Markets analyst John Corcoran believes Yahoo will abandon Overture. He thinks Yahoo will get into the paid-listings business itself, thus not only taking away business from Overture but also posing a new competitive threat. "Everything it takes to do paid listings, Yahoo does very well in its own core business," Mr. Corcoran said. "It serves Web pages, handles search queries and sells advertising."