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The world has begun to recover from recession but the process will not be simple, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
The recession had "left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come" said IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard.
His comments came after Japan this week followed France and Germany is seeing their economies return to growth.
In this latest report, Mr Blanchard predicted that global output may also remain lower than it had been before the crisis.
Countries must rebalance their economies to make it sustainable, Mr Blanchard said.
your country may vary ..the spin ( lie )..is the same ..
The US media has been saying this since Obama took office and 2 million plus jobs have been lost since, consumer confidence has plummeted, bankruptcies are higher then they were last year, the deficit increased by trillions, and foreclosures have skyrocketed.
It's all about psychology. The world economy is largely the result of a collection of individual decisions made by people. People who are not sure whether to buy/invest.
If you want the crisis to end, stop being paranoid and stop thinking negatively without any real reasons. Stop worrying. Start acting normally.
Fear is the real crisis. Unsubstantiated fear is the perfect crisis.
...and 2 million plus jobs have been lost since, consumer confidence has plummeted, bankruptcies are higher then they were last year, the deficit increased by trillions, and foreclosures have skyrocketed.
Heh. Since the U.S. media isn't reporting the above facts, then where'd you find out about it, Al Jazeera? ;)
It's all about psychology.
With all due respect- no, it isn't.
I won't argue against it being a contributing factor, but there are valid, quantifiable reasons for this crisis. Deliberate actions. Poor policy decisions.
When your normal behavior is spending beyond your means, (from the personal to the national level) reverting to normal behavior will hardly correct the problem.
And indeed there is an argument that the crisis was well understood and allowed to progress unchecked on purpose.
Common sense and history tells us that when the market economy is left unregulated the balance is disturbed with opportunists and optomists taking over to such a point that the momentum can only crash.
And that's market economies - they are not perfect , yet nothing would happen in a totally regulated economy aka the Soviet Block and pre reform China.
There is some interesting reading over here at the BBC that shows why some economies are climbing out fairly quickly in Europe and some are not [ UK , France and Germany [news.bbc.co.uk...] ] btw - some [ very few ] economies have hardly been touched or are still experiencing growth.
The US and UK are some of the hardest hit due to loose credit , as we all know , obsession with home ownership and leveraged debt hitting the finance sectors. But countries with strong manufacturing bases , are seeing the need to tool up and replenish stock for the upswing.
The US stockmarket clearly reflects , again , where it thinks things are going !
- people will forget quickly and be back to the races soon no doubt , albeit at a different pace and relativity to begin with.
other than fox news
Heh. The irony is that FOX proposes that people NOT trust big media because it's biased, while FOX itself is the most biased of any source. Their standards of journalistic integrity are comparable to what you'd find in communist countries like China, where they make the news fit the ideology.
People who rely on FOX for their understanding of the world are unmoored from actual reality. I know of a true case, a middle aged guy who used to work for Enron, a scientist, now living in a nearly all-white suburb in Colorado whose fear compels him to buy assault weapons to defend himself from a coming breakdown in American society. I kid you not, this man and his family live in mortal dread. After 9/11 they were so scared out of their wits the guy's wife was on the brink of committing suicide and taking her children with her because she was afraid the terrorists were at her doorstep. True story. There is a lot of fear in America and I blame Fox News for their deranged perception of reality.
[edited by: martinibuster at 11:42 pm (utc) on Aug. 18, 2009]
What the heck does this have to do with Webmasterworld?
This doesn't belong on the site, much less on the home page. I can go to the Wall Street Journal for economic announcements, I don't expect to see this here. I'm surprised.
I can go to the Wall Street Journal for economic announcements
I can and frequently do disagree with many here ..but it's the only place ( forum ) that you get the level of analysis and intellect on web and other matters ( and foo :) that counts ..and it has no avatars or sigs and precious little spam gets through ..
so dont knock the occasional diversion all ajax and css ( choose your favourite techy / adsense ) fora makes jack a nerdy out of touch boy ..
sometimes even the poster(s) whom you habitually hate ..can give you very valuable insights ..and alternative ways of thinking ..
BTW i didnt mean that to sound like I normally hate martinibusters posts ..:)
Or, as a wise man once said:-
"Only when the last tree has died,
And the last river been poisoned,
And the last fish been caught,
We will realise, We can not eat money" Chief Seattle
joined:Jan 26, 2004
We said. Thoughts become things (Mike Dooley)
Best to think positive and I am sure everything will come around. In my area of Canada (West Coast) in many ways it already is 'business as usual' again
And that is, it was caused/allow to happen intentionally by the Federal Reserve. They are the ones that control liquidity. There was a lack thereof. Therefore, it was the Feds responsibility. As helicopter Ben said, the fed can always just dump money into the economy (Ben gave a metaphor with a helicopter, from there his nickname) , so if there isn't enough cash to go around, and prices rise as a result, it is in their control. Albeit, it is a delicate balance the fed has to maintain (pumping cash into the economy and taking it out), but to me, it seems this was more intentional than accidental. I also recognize that recession cycles are a normal part of living in a world of inexact balances between supply and demand. But this doesn't seem to cut completely for me.
So the real question for me is, when are they going to loosen the faucet of money and what was the purpose of these intentions? And how long will the world take to recover after that?
I honestly believe they haven't lifted their grip on money supply/distribution. So any such reports from the IMF are mute.
On a tinfoil hat note, I half have a feeling this is all leading up to a major war, maybe even a world one... just like what happened with WW2/Great Depression.
And to rebuttal the comment of:
Thoughts become things (Mike Dooley)
Then I guess I can just think away illness or think of richness and become rich. I guess you are a believer in 'The Secret' :$
You mean beyond the low interest rates this decade, and the billions we threw at Wall Street and the auto industry?
...it was caused/allow to happen intentionally by the Federal Reserve.
It's been a long time coming and not as simple as saying it's Bernanke's fault. Bernanke simply inherited a problem that's been in the making for at least twenty years prior. If you're going to point a finger at a single person then point the biggest finger on your hand at Greenspan. He's the one who advised congress and several presidents on both sides of the aisle that the market can self-regulate and that derivatives were great, that breaking down regulations in place since the great depression was a good thing. Now we're finding out it wasn't such a good idea.
But that's in the past. Things are not great, but they're definitely getting better.
But the US is already in depression, not recession...
:) , yes things are in mind rather than in economy actually , most of the nations in Europe , Asia have posted good growth in GDP , Japan has already declared they are no where near this recession ( rather depression ) , just wait for few more months i guess for all world to be free from depression of both recession and swine flu :)
And that is, it was caused/allow to happen intentionally by the Federal Reserve. They are the ones that control liquidity. There was a lack thereof.
Right, we all watched Zeitgeist but thanks for paraphrasing it (it's been awhile)
Then I guess I can just think away illness or think of richness and become rich
Absolutely, you didn't know this yet? :)
Reports of the my death are premature, but, there still exists the opportunity to sell a will, a pension plan, a nice plot in the cemetary. The opportunities are there, we just need to look for them.
Read the IMF report closely: It's talking about "starting to pull..." out of recession. As some astute members have indicated in this thread, things are a-changin' and we need to adapt to the modern world. It isn't going to be the same as it was ten years ago, so stop thinking you'll keep doing the same things you did back then when things pick up again.
If there are markets growing, and others not, look to the growing markets. They may be geographic, they may be technology sectors, or some other fad. As webmasters, innovators, technologists, business owners, and entrepreneurs (pick you own label), we should be looking at these reports with an open mind, be prepared to listen, and to be able to act for our, and our children's future.
Optimism ladies and gentlemen, optimism is what makes us stronger, smarter and sometimes funny :)
There is a beautiful day ahead of us today!