Earning prediction based on number of search and CPC

[dailypress]

Hello all,

I wanted to start a site on a topic with medium competition, 165,000 (exact) monthly searches and CPC (suggested bid) of $0.98.

If I were to rank number 1-2 on Google for that particular term, how much would be reasonable to predict for monthly earning? Sounds too good to be true to say: 165K * ~ $1 = $165k/month

What am I doing wrong here?

thanks in advance for your time and help

[dailypress]

While searching, I found this and figured I'd add to the post: kinda answering my own question ;)

Interestingly, the #1 SERP position recieves 42.3% of all clickthroughs. The #2 position only accounts for 11.92% of all clickthroughs – almost 72% less clickthroughs than the top position in the SERPs. Attaining the #1 position for your keywords/phrases results in nearly 4 times more traffic than that of your nearest rival – now that’s a serious difference in both traffic and potential revenue...
[redcardinal.ie...]

And so I'm thinking I would have to multiply that number by the factor: Number of Google Clicks x Number of Clicks on Ads (lets assume 5%):
42.3% * Adsense CTR (maximum 5%) = 2.1%
Final Result:
$165K * 2.1% = $3.4k/month
In other words id be making less if I assume lower CTR... And also I'd have to multiply that by 70% Google Payout ....$3.4K*70%=$2.38k ... Does this sound about right?

[dailypress]

Number of Exact monthly searches * CPC * 0.42 * 0.05 * 0.70 = Number of exact monthly searches * CPC * 0.015 = 0.01 (1%) of the original $165k/mo I had initially calculated!

[robzilla]

The suggested bid (CPC) is, I believe, for the Search Network, and I assume you're talking AdSense, so that's the Display Network, where CPC tends to be much lower, and you're not necessarily getting ads related to your topic. Furthermore, my CTR tends to be much lower than 5%, and you also need to take the percentage of ad blocking users into account.

[tangor]

Numbers are great. You can make them do whatever you like.

Traffic, on the other hand, is variable, fluid, and sometimes desert.

One needs to have potential numbers before starting, but make it realistic and assume you might only achieve 10% of whatever you predicted. If that will make the business viable, go for it and be pleasantly surprised if real world numbers are greater than calculated.