Welcome to WebmasterWorld Guest from 34.239.158.107

Forum Moderators: phranque

Message Too Old, No Replies

Earning prediction based on number of search and CPC

     
4:47 am on May 19, 2016 (gmt 0)

Senior Member

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member

joined:Nov 3, 2006
posts:1362
votes: 4


Hello all,

I wanted to start a site on a topic with medium competition, 165,000 (exact) monthly searches and CPC (suggested bid) of $0.98.

If I were to rank number 1-2 on Google for that particular term, how much would be reasonable to predict for monthly earning? Sounds too good to be true to say: 165K * ~ $1 = $165k/month

What am I doing wrong here?

thanks in advance for your time and help
7:20 am on May 19, 2016 (gmt 0)

Senior Member

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member

joined:Nov 3, 2006
posts:1362
votes: 4


While searching, I found this and figured I'd add to the post: kinda answering my own question ;)

Interestingly, the #1 SERP position recieves 42.3% of all clickthroughs. The #2 position only accounts for 11.92% of all clickthroughs – almost 72% less clickthroughs than the top position in the SERPs. Attaining the #1 position for your keywords/phrases results in nearly 4 times more traffic than that of your nearest rival – now that’s a serious difference in both traffic and potential revenue...
[redcardinal.ie...]

And so I'm thinking I would have to multiply that number by the factor: Number of Google Clicks x Number of Clicks on Ads (lets assume 5%):
42.3% * Adsense CTR (maximum 5%) = 2.1%
Final Result:
$165K * 2.1% = $3.4k/month
In other words id be making less if I assume lower CTR... And also I'd have to multiply that by 70% Google Payout ....$3.4K*70%=$2.38k ... Does this sound about right?
7:37 am on May 19, 2016 (gmt 0)

Senior Member

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member

joined:Nov 3, 2006
posts:1362
votes: 4


Number of Exact monthly searches * CPC * 0.42 * 0.05 * 0.70 = Number of exact monthly searches * CPC * 0.015 = 0.01 (1%) of the original $165k/mo I had initially calculated!
8:06 am on May 19, 2016 (gmt 0)

Senior Member

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month

joined:Sept 25, 2005
posts:2091
votes: 370


The suggested bid (CPC) is, I believe, for the Search Network, and I assume you're talking AdSense, so that's the Display Network, where CPC tends to be much lower, and you're not necessarily getting ads related to your topic. Furthermore, my CTR tends to be much lower than 5%, and you also need to take the percentage of ad blocking users into account.
8:18 am on May 19, 2016 (gmt 0)

Senior Member from US 

WebmasterWorld Senior Member tangor is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month

joined:Nov 29, 2005
posts:10139
votes: 1010


Numbers are great. You can make them do whatever you like.

Traffic, on the other hand, is variable, fluid, and sometimes desert.

One needs to have potential numbers before starting, but make it realistic and assume you might only achieve 10% of whatever you predicted. If that will make the business viable, go for it and be pleasantly surprised if real world numbers are greater than calculated.
 

Join The Conversation

Moderators and Top Contributors

Hot Threads This Week

Featured Threads

Free SEO Tools

Hire Expert Members