Forum Moderators: phranque
A leading marketing forecaster on Tuesday cut its projection for U.S. spending on online advertising this year, signalling that economic troubles are likely biting into corporate marketing budgets.The revised forecast by eMarketer calls for U.S. advertisers to spend $25.8 billion (12.9 billion pounds) online this year, which compares to its projection of $27.5 billion made in October.
Ad Spending Revised Forecasts [uk.reuters.com]
Their "guess" was off by 6%. I don't think that implies economic troubles...
More realistically it demonstrates the standard deviation of such forecasting...
But it wouldn't be "news" if they didn't throw up red flags every week...
My feeling though is that fraud accelerates in a tougher market and competition will price out many mid level businesses because there are less customers to target towards. (hight customer acquisition costs in the midst of higher fraud risk)
Ignore the doomsters, do as Deitrich Bonhoeffer wrote "Faint not, nor fear, but go out to the storm and the action ..."
You may do so, but there is fine line between being realistic and what you call "doomster."
This time is different. It appears that cheap money will be gone for a long time. This in turn affects consumer spending, business expansions, new business openings so it will undoubtedly hit advertising. People may disagree on how much.
Once they see 20% of their 401K gone in the stock market, high gas prices, food costs, 28% credit card rates, home equity gone, uncertainty in the job market, people do hold back spending. It's a given.
I think the internet is a bit more robust than the brick and mortar shops from that perspective...
Subprime mortgages - Bear Stearn
The other sectors may not feel a recession whatever the heck that is. Funny how they say you're in a recession before you realize it.
Newsmakers love to drum up fear. Remember when CNN among others was trying to get everyone scared stiff a few years ago about avian flu?!
p/g
