Apple showing signs it may soon launch a search engine

[brotherhood of LAN]

Changes in Spotlight Search on iOS and iPadOS 14 beta, a significant update to its Applebot support page, and an increase in crawling from AppleBot signify that Apple may be launching a search engine soon.

[coywolf.news...]

[engine]

I might be wrong, as is often the case, but this doesn't mean mainstream search. That is a very tough nut to crack.

added [support.apple.com...]
"Products like Siri and Spotlight Suggestions use Applebot."

[brotherhood of LAN]

It is unclear whether web search will be part of it. Apparently they've ramped up hiring in their search department so it's a possibility.

[JorgeV]

Hello,

an increase in crawling from AppleBot

Indeed. Until June, I had roughly 200 visits from AppleBot per day. Then, all of sudden it went to 200 visits per hour.

"Products like Siri and Spotlight Suggestions use Applebot."

It just means that, right now, Applebot feeds Siri and Spotlight Suggestions. Apple will not list other upcoming usages, until an official announcement anyhow.

As mentioned in this article, in a near future, the EU might impose Apple to let users decide which search engine to use. This would be wise, from Apple, to propose its own search engine, and for sure, lot of Apple fans, will select it.

[engine]

I would really welcome some competition in the search space, but, really, will Apple go mainstream, and will it be competition?

[JorgeV]

Hello- again,

Historically, Apple never tried to be a leader (from a market share point of view), so I don't think Apple wants to compete against Google, or has the ambition to become the first search engine, or even second or third.

Apple has its own eco-system, its users and fans base. So I think that, if Apple releases its own search engine, it will be to enforce again more its control over its own kingdom.

Now, if Apple 's own search engine, happens to really be a lot better than Google, yes, over the time, it might becomes an alternative. But so far, I see it more as a search engine, for Apple's device users.

If I don't make mistake, Apple represents 25% of mobile devices, and 10% of desktops/laptops. However, I guess that the profile of these users is highly interesting and certainly has a higher value than the average people.

[iamlost]

There is search and then there is general search. I very much doubt that Apple would bother with general search as that would mean moving into a mature market with behemoth competitors.

However, a more focussed value added search for AR (augmented reality) value added navigation, whether personal, ie via glasses, or platform, ie vehicle, information (Apple has patents on such) as well as value added AR for the recently more widespread use of video conferencing, distance medicine, remote schooling (yes, Apple has such patents) would be quite in keeping with past offerings.

Part would be device search for finding and adding in locally held info such as contact list personal info and part could be externally supplied such as map and location info, instructions and documentation overlay, etc.

I note that Apple has been heavily researching satellite and wireless communication for several years now that could both tie into the above as well as require massive information retrieval and management capabilities.

There is also the possibility that both regulators and Apple’s desire to retain top to bottom control could result in a general search product. Given that buying an extant SE would be an easier solution I am more inclined to a more targeted use of more reliable data input. Which does not rule out a collation of external search results and their own internal confirmed data. A fact check on Google results as it were.

My wildest speculations are probably unfounded; regardless the next one to five years for Apple look to be fascinating.

[lucy24]

I can only hope that, if they do go into the search business, the people who write the algorithms are more competent than the people who program the robot. Applebot first caught my attention by asking for directories without final slash--not just once in a blue moon like any search engine will do, but repeatedly and persistently. More recently they’ve drawn attention by asking for /pagename.html when the URL is really /directory/pagename.html, or for /directory/pagename.html when it should be /directory/subdir/pagename.html. This exasperates me.

[tangor]

Applebot and I have a long relationship ... with them usually getting 403s for bad behavior.

I suspect this is more about Siri et al than general search.

[aristotle]

Last year I read somewhere that Google pays Apple 12 Billion dollars per year to be their default search engine. But the following recent Forbes article gives a figure of only 7 Billion.

[forbes.com ]

Apple Could Cost Google $15 Billion By Buying DuckDuckGo, Analyst Says

Another quote from the article:

Google pays Apple north of $7 billion annually to be the default search engine on iOS. But it makes about $25 billion in ad revenue from searches on iPhones, iPads, and Macs. Apple couldn’t capture all that revenue if it had its own search engine, but Sacconaghi thinks it could cost Google most of it.

And all it would take would be about a week’s worth of cash flow for the Cupertino-based giant.

[brotherhood of LAN]

I don't see why they'd want to buy DDG. I don't think much IP is there and many people who use it are the same people avoiding 'big tech'.

>week’s worth of cash flow for the Cupertino-based giant.

I can't remember the source but G make around double than Bing per 1000 searches. If they want to outbid everyone to be a browser/device default, they can. Bit of a perpetuating circle there.

What if Google stopped paying them to be the default and the default was left to the user? Google would use around 20% market share on Apple devices at an estimate. [spreadprivacy.com...] though more importantly Apple would be down billions and likely their users will still look for Google.

[tangor]

The fact that dictionaries now define "google" as searching the web apple will have a tough marketing adventure to get the world to use their engine.

On the other hand, they could create a captive walled-garden for their millions of users and keep all the ad cash for their own. :)

[MrSavage]

I thought it would be Facebook, but Apple is fine with me. Google should hope for this because their party won't last as is. The web could be brought back to life.

[brotherhood of LAN]

[ft.com...] (subscription required)

In a little-noticed change to the latest version of the iPhone operating system, iOS 14, Apple has begun to show its own search results and link directly to websites when users type queries from its home screen

The Silicon Valley company is notoriously secretive about its internal projects, but the move adds to growing evidence that it is working to build a rival to Google’s search engine.

[robzilla]

What if Google stopped paying them to be the default and the default was left to the user? Google would use around 20% market share on Apple devices at an estimate. [spreadprivacy.com...] though more importantly Apple would be down billions and likely their users will still look for Google.

The article says their market share could drop by 20%, not to 20%. But perhaps you meant "lose" instead of "use" :-)

20% still seems rather high to me.

[engine]

If it loses the share of income from google, it'll look to monetise that from ads on its own service. There's a lot of work there, but it's all doable.
Going to mainstream search seems a tall order. Doable, but very tough with Google being the pack leader by a long way, and it being baked in to Android (whatever anyone says) and the default go to search for most people.

[Brett_Tabke]

> I don't see why they'd want to buy DDG.

Because DDG is just serving Bing results. Even though Microsoft owns a minor (about 1%) part of Apple, I don't think we would ever see Apple paying Microsoft for search services.

[brotherhood of LAN]

>The article says their market share could drop by 20%, not to 20%. But perhaps you meant "lose" instead of "use" :-)

Yeah! Noticed the typo too late.

[JorgeV]

<paranoia>
I wonder if this is part of a secret pact between Apple and Google. If Apple creates a concurrent to Google (search), this can show that Google is not abusing of a dominant position (at least in search market), and so, "help" Google...

Remember, Apple and Google are "surprisingly" applying the same commission on their app stores.
</paranoia>

[graeme_p]

@JorgeV it does not need a secret (and illegal) pact.

It just needs each to react to the other and read the other right. For example, by sharing the same commission on app stores, they can claim its an industry standard, not monopoly pricing.

That example is not very different from simple "sticky" oligopolistic pricing that happens in other markets too.

[Brett_Tabke]

>Remember, Apple and Google are "surprisingly"
> applying the same commission on their app stores.

But with Google's App Store, you are free to use other app stores like Samsungs or Amazons.

[graeme_p]

But with Google's App Store, you are free to use other app stores like Samsungs or Amazons.

Most people do not know that. I use F-Droid myself and it is definitely an advantage for those who know, but most people will not get it.

Interestingly, the Amazon store also charges a 30% commission: [developer.amazon.com...]

[NickMNS]

The biggest difference between Apply (iOS) and Google (android) is that android devices enable the full functionality of Progress Web-Apps and service workers, meaning that apps can be downloaded and installed directly from any website without any commission to be paid. Whereas on iOS, many of the most critical feature of the PWA are not supported, features such as Push-Notification. This means that as a developer you must not only fork over 30% but you area also forced to write a native-app exclusively for iOS.

More specifically in regards to the rumors of Apple launching search engine, the timing of these rumors seems spurious (as eluded to by JorgeV). I posted a link in another thread about the agreement between Google and Apple being worth in the order of 8 Billion$. I seriously doubt that Apple can expect to make more than that by creating their own search engine, considering risk, dev costs and the cost of competition.

The most important thing to consider, let's assume they do launch a search engine and gain significant market share, then they will likely be faced with similar scrutiny as Google is now. They will have a full vertical dominance of their "ecosystem", now they control only apps, with search they would also control the web.

This is political posturing, such that Google can say "See Apple is our competition, we are not a monopoly." 8 billion buys you a lot of favor.