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Mozilla: 58% growth in market share last year?

         

tedster

6:10 pm on Jun 11, 2004 (gmt 0)

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I was just checking the browser stats at w3chools [w3schools.com] and noticed the phenomenal jump they report for Moz over the past year:

May 2003: 4.6%
May 2004: 11.0%

Do those numbers look accurate to others? I'm tempted to think that's a local phenomenon, and not web-wide.

isitreal

6:53 pm on Jun 11, 2004 (gmt 0)

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I took a quick look at a few 6 month stats for non tech websites, 2-8% for Netscape/Mozilla browsers, average seemed about 5%. My guess is that the sites being used to get these results are either slightly tech oriented, or the stats are counting spiders that use mozilla/4/5 or netscape compatible as netscape, for example Analog 5 seems to be counting slurp as just netscape compatible at the moment.

For my tech oriented site I get average 30+% non IE, but that doesn't mean anything.

One look at amazon.com and ebay's stats would settle this browser useage percentage instantly I suspect, I wish I could see those numbers just once, my guess is they would show about 90% MSIE.

Chndru

7:15 pm on Jun 11, 2004 (gmt 0)

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>One look at amazon.com and ebay's stats

You can try Google Zeitgeist.

bakedjake

7:19 pm on Jun 11, 2004 (gmt 0)

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We've seen an even bigger jump, Ted. From an average of 1.8% this month last year, to 4% now across the sites that we watch.

We have not seen a substantial decline in NN 4.x, however, which tells me that most of these users are switching from IE rather than upgrading from old NN.

isitreal

7:21 pm on Jun 11, 2004 (gmt 0)

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You can try Google Zeitgeist

I did, but I think there's something wrong with how they are getting their data, it doesn't fit anything I've seen ever on my sites, which are mostly very boring non tech utterly standard user type sites. That's why I'd love to see the actual Amazon / Ebay megasite type stats, from the source. I think the google stats are slightly oriented towards tech savy users, since tech savy users tend to use them as their primary search engine.

TheDoctor

10:04 pm on Jun 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

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This is in line with my experience, although I'd put the growth of Mozilla as beginning a bit earlier.

IE hits to my site peaked at about 85% (excluding bots) in March 2003, after growing steadily ever since I started collecting figures. It's been declining since then, dropping to as low as 70%, but it seems to be cycling at around 73-74%. I call it 75% to be approximately safe.

Mozilla hits have been growing since July 2002, and seem now to be cycling at between 16% and 20% of all hits.

I'm using the word "cycling" because, until December 2003, the percentage of hits from IE was falling steadily and and that of Mozilla was growing. Since then, the trends have reversed.

(This does not imply that Mozilla use is declining since the New Year, however, since overall hits to my site have increased, and the absolute number of hits from Mozilla has actually risen. I've obviously got two profiles of user, and the current growth in popularity of my site is stronger amongst IE users than Mozilla users.)

Bottom line is, while I think Tedster is right about local variations within the web as a whole, I think we are seeing strong growth of Mozilla usage. If anyone isn't getting this, it's probably because they've ove-optimised their site for IE.

encyclo

12:20 am on Jun 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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We have not seen a substantial decline in NN 4.x, however, which tells me that most of these users are switching from IE rather than upgrading from old NN.

I've been examining some stats from a site which attracts a university, higher education, scientific-type crowd. I did a correlation between NN4 figures and the operating system. Albeit on a fairly small set of data, there were exactly zero NN4/Windows combinations. All of the NN4 users were either on Mac OS9 or less (very few), Linux or particularly Solaris workstations. Does this correlate with what anyone else is seeing? I think all those who can upgrade have already done so. (Does Solaris still come with NN4 as the default browser?)

isitreal

1:12 am on Jun 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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This thread [webmasterworld.com] may explain some of the apparent mozilla growth, if you don't do a few things to clean up your mozilla netscape count on your stats, you're going to have extremeley misleading mozilla counts. Also, if you aren't running a spider trap type script your numbers won't be accurate, either for ie or mozilla.

I just took a quick look at sites I do that don't use the spider blocking scripts, and mozilla counts are between 25-50% off, eg, 500 real mozillas but a count of 1000, also 'netscape compatible' are spiders and should be eliminated from the count.

Once I subtract these false mozillas, the stats come to exactly what I would think they would be, 3% mac, 4-5% all mozilla/netscape, 1% Opera.

m_shroom

6:46 pm on Jun 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Did any of include the OS when looking at your stats?

Was mozilla jump due to migration from IE

or migration from W... to Linux?

R1chard

1:48 pm on Jun 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



It's also pleasing that both Linux and Mac have each apparently grown over 30% in the last year

There's a little bit of current info listed in this Mac thread (although more data is needed!)

[webmasterworld.com...]

I did a correlation between NN4 figures and the operating system. Albeit on a fairly small set of data, there were exactly zero NN4/Windows combinations

I just tried the site in your profile with N4.7/WinNT and got the XML Save/Choose dialog. That might explain the zero visitor phenomenon. I'm sure there are people out there with N4 under Win.

How many people here have emailed Opera asking them to change the default id string from IE to Opera? That would be good for them, and it would avoid distortion as well. (Although looking at that list, Opera has doubled in the last year!)

encyclo

2:06 pm on Jun 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I just tried the site in your profile with N4.7/WinNT and got the XML Save/Choose dialog. That might explain the zero visitor phenomenon.

Ah, I'm not talking about that pitiful one-page wonder of a site (which offers a download prompt for IE6 as well) - it's in reality just a filter page! ;) The stats came from a genuine site with a strong scientific bias.

I'm sure there still are a few NN4/Win users out there, but the way I see it is that the majority of NN4 users are using a non-Windows OS and/or don't have admin rights to install software.

Any decent browser stats program should be able to identify Opera even if the user has it as "Identify as IE" - the browser string always includes the word Opera and the version number somewhere.

gmiller

11:33 pm on Jun 16, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



That 58% year-to-year growth is just more of the same. I've seen similar growth for Mozilla-based browsers on all my sites since Netscape 6.0 Preview Release 1 was introduced a few years ago. It's just that back then, the percentage of users running Mozilla was so low that it wasn't really noticeable. Now, a 50+% increase is more attention-grabbing.

I wonder if the negative press surrounding the Firefox 0.9 technical issues and default theme will have much impact?

TheDoctor

7:13 pm on Jun 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I wonder if the negative press surrounding the Firefox 0.9 technical issues and default theme will have much impact?

I don't think this will drive people back to IE :)

I think the growth of Mozilla use is institutional anyway. That's where most of the knowledge about browser options - and about how to install a new browser - is.

The NN4 experience suggests that the vast majority of individual users stay with the browser that comes with their PC and only change when they get a new machine. The move to Mozilla amongst home owners / small businesses is going to remain a minority thing. A small minority thing.

scallihan

10:03 pm on Jun 22, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



The more Web developer-oriented the site, the higher number of non-IE users. I attract a lot of general traffic to my site and my results have been (based on over 60,000 unique visitors a month):

Jan 04:

1. MSIE 90.6%
2. Netscape 2.5%
3. Mozilla 2.2%
4. Safari 1.4%
5. Unknown 1.2%
6. Opera 0.7%
7. Firebird 0.6%
8. WebTV Browser 0.2%

Jun 04:

1. MSIE 89.3%
2. Mozilla 2.9%
3. Safari 2.1%
4. Netscape 2.1%
5. FireFox 1.5%
6. Opera 0.7%
7. Unknown 0.6%
8. Firebird 0.1%

MSIE dropped only 1.3%. Mozilla/Firebird/Firefox went from 3.1% in Jan 04 to 4.5% in Jun 04. Safari has increased from 1.4% to 2.1%. Netscape, however, has dropped from 2.5% to 2.1%.

Steve
<Sorry, no personal URLs or extended sigs. See TOS [webmasterworld.com]>

[edited by: tedster at 12:28 am (utc) on June 23, 2004]