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I don't see any compensating positives here. Recent subdomain crap still hasn't been culled out here like it normally is after a couple cycles.
Exactly. Basically, I think what is going on is that in the Google Dances of days gone by, Google all at once threw in the new page data, new backlinks, new anchor text, new algo etc. into the pot at once. So, the update was major. What we see in this update is likely just one of these new elements being rolled in.
I also don't believe that sandboxing thing is a probationary dealie for new sites, in spite of the apparent delay. I think it's got more to do with some kind of off-line processing so that the processing effiency real-time can be more efficient than it otherwise would be.
Where in the world would I get such a hair-brained, half-baked theory? From reading Kleinberg - SETS for starters. :)